Thursday, April 30, 2020

Selling Starts 抛售开始

Due to weakness in European markets, over 30 million people applied for unemployment in US  and very weak Chicago PMI are driving US stock indexes are down this morning.  They are now accelerating to the down side as big tech stocks such as AMZN, AAPL, FB, GOOG and MSFT are losing their morning strengths.  Satisfactory Q1 earning reports from GOOG, FB and MSFT have  raised investors hope on this afternoon's report from AMZN and AAPL.  This is exactly why the market is dangerous since these stocks have been priced in too much optimism and are ripe for a pull back. More sell off is likely after AMZN and AAPL reports this afternoon. The about 35% surge from March 23 bottom for the S&P 500 is too much of a rise and doesn't seem to be sustainable as reality of bad Q2 economy is coming. Technically, S&P 500 failed at 61.8% Fibonacci bounce level at 2937 and has started to come down. Near term supports for the S&P 500 are 2770 (50 DMA) and  2641 (March 30 high).









。In Asia, Japan +2.1%. Hong Kong closed. China +1.3%. India +3.1%.
In Europe,.DAX -2.01%FTSE -3.1%. CAC -2%%.
 Crude +3.09  to $18.15. Gold +3.9% to $1717.30
Ten-year Treasury Yield -2 bps to 0.61%

。The Federal Reserve painted a dour picture of current conditions and pledged Wednesday to continue its historically aggressive policy stance until it is comfortable that the U.S. economy is back on its feet. Following this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the central bank said it would maintain its current interest rate target between 0% and 0.25%.  "The ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment and inflation in the near term, and poses  considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term," the Fed said in a statement after two-day meeting.   "This is about as dire as the language the Fed uses can get." Those are the words of George Pearkes, macro strategist at Bespoke Investment Group, as he reflects on what The Fed promises and worries about going forward. ---CNBC, ZeroHedge

。Christine Lagarde warned that the European economy faces "an economic contraction of unprecedented size and speed" and warned that the Continental economy could contract by  up to 12% for the year 2020. Lagarde made her remarks during the press conference following Thursday's meeting of the ECB Governing Council, where the central bank affirmed that it would leave its easing program mostly as it was, while launching a new pandemic refinancing vehicle for eurozone banks. n addition to the 5%-12% contraction for the year, Lagarde warned that YoY growth for Q2 could contract 15%. She added that the central bank is prepared to extend its rescue programs for as long as they are needed
---Zero Hedge

。The Labor Department said another 3.84 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, bringing the six-week total to more than 30 million. U.S. consumer spending also dropped 7.5% in March on a year-over-year basis. The sharp rise in jobless claims and the precipitous drop in consumer spending come as businesses are forced to shut down and consumers stay home amid the coronavirus pandemic.--- CNBC

。Rising hopes for a coronavirus treatment and a partial reopening of the economy sparked a steep rebound this month, with the S&P 500 popping more than 10%, on track for its best month since 1987.However, a lack of an all-clear on the pandemic front, coupled with worrisome technical and sentiment indicators, lead many Wall Street pros to believe the market is getting ahead of itself. “Beware of the oddity in this bear rally,” said Andrew Lapthorne, global head of quantitative research at Societe Generale. “The dramatic reversal of global markets after the pandemic lows is more puzzling.” ---CNBC

。April Chicago PMI: 35.4 vs. 37.9 consensus, 47.8 prior. Production plunged to lowest since 1980, while new orders recorded the biggest slide. ---Seeking Alpha

。Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT): Q3 GAAP EPS of $1.40 beats by $0.13.Revenue of $35.02B (+14.4% Y/Y) beats by $1.32B. "COVID-19 had minimal net impact on the total company revenue," says Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), reporting a fiscal Q3 beat. ---Seeking Alpha

。Facebook (NASDAQ:FB): Q1 GAAP EPS of $1.71 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $17.74B (+17.6% Y/Y) beats by $520M. CFO said next quarter is unknown. ---Seeking alpha

。Testla (TSLA) reported first quarter earnings of $1.24 per share on revenue of $5.99 billion. Analysts were expecting a loss of 28 cents per share on revenue of $6.1 billion. ---The Street

。Caterpillar (CAT): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.60 misses by $0.07; GAAP EPS of $1.98 beats by $0.25. Revenue of $10.64B (-21.2% Y/Y) misses by $340M.  Company warned of a "severe and chaotic" impact from the coronavirus pandemic, but analysts say Q1 results were not as bad as feared. ---Seeking Alpha





由于欧洲市场疲软,美国过去6周有超过3000万人申请失业救济,而且芝加哥PMI非常疲软,美国各大股票指数今早下跌。它们现在正在加速下跌。大型科技股,如AMZN,AAPL,FB,GOOG和MSFT也开始失去它们早盘的强势。 来自GOOG,FB和MSFT的令人满意的第一季度收益报告提高了投资者对AMZN和AAPL今天下午报告的希望。 这就是市场之所以如此危险的原因,因为这些股票的交易价格都在过于乐观水平而回落的时机已经成熟。 在AMZN和AAPL今天下午发布报告之后,市场可能会有更大的抛售。自3月23日的底部以来,标普500指数的涨幅约为35%。涨幅太过份了,随着第二季度经济不景气的到来,这种涨势应该不能持续。 技术上,标准普尔500指数在61.8%的斐波纳契反弹水平2937被阻而开始回落。 标普500的近期支撑位是2770(50 DMA)和2641(3月30日高点)。











。在亚洲,日本+ 2.1%。 香港关闭。 中国+ 1.3%。 印度+ 3.1%。
在欧洲,.DAX -2.01%FTSE -3.1%。 CAC -2 %%。
  原油价格上涨3.09美元至18.15美元。 黄金+ 3.9%至$ 1717.30
十年期美国国债收益率-2个基点至0.61%

。美联储(Fed)对当前状况描绘了一副惨淡的图画,并在周三承诺继续其历史上积极的政策立场,直到对美国经济重新站稳脚步感到满意为止。在本周的联邦公开市场委员会会议之后,中央银行表示将维持目前的利率目标在0%至0.25%之间。美联储在为期两天的会议后的一份声明中说:“持续的公共卫生危机将在短期内严重影响经济活动,就业和通货膨胀,并对中期的经济前景构成相当大的风险。” “美联储使用的语言非常可怕。”这些就是Bespoke 投资集团宏观策略师乔治·皮尔克斯(George Pearkes)的话,他在反思美联储对未来的承诺和担忧。 --- CNBC,ZeroHedge

。克里斯汀·拉加德(Christine Lagarde)警告说,欧洲经济将面临“前所未有的规模和速度的经济收缩”,并警告说,到2020年欧洲大陆经济可能收缩12%。欧洲央行在声明中表示,将大体保留其宽松计划,同时为欧元区银行推出新的大流行性再融资工具。除了今年收缩5%-12%外,Lagarde警告说第二季度的同比增长可能收缩15%。她补充说,央行准备在需要时延长其救援计划。---Zero Hedge

。劳工部表示,上周又有384万美国人申请失业救济,六周总人数超过了3000万。美国3月消费者支出也同比下降7.5%。在冠状病毒大流行期间,企业被迫关闭,消费者不得不呆在家里,失业救济人数急剧上升,消费者支出急剧下降。--CNBC

。对冠状病毒治疗和部分经济重新开放的希望不断上升,本月引发了股市急剧反弹,标准普尔500指数暴涨10%以上,创下自1987年以来的最佳月度。病毒大流行的不确定性,加上令人担忧的技术和情绪指标,使许多华尔街专业人士相信市场正在超越自身。法国兴业银行全球定量研究负责人安德鲁·拉普索恩(Andrew Lapthorne)说:“提防这次熊市反弹的怪异之处。” “在病毒大流行达到股市的低点之后,全球市场的急剧逆转更加令人困惑。” --- CNBC

。4月芝加哥PMI:35.4对 37.9预期,之前为47.8。产量降至1980年以来的最低水平,而新订单则录得最大跌幅。 ---Seeking Alpha

。微软(MSFT):第三季度GAAP每股收益为$ 1.40,好于预期$ 0.13; 收入为$ 35.02B(同比为+ 14.4%),好于预期$ 1.32B。微软公司(MSFT)说:“ COVID-19对公司总收入的净影响很小。” ---Seeking Alpha

。Facebook(FB):第一季度GAAP每股收益为1.71美元,好于预期0.01美元。收入$ 17.74B(同比增长17.6%)好于预期$ 520M。首席财务官表示,下个季度情况未知。 ---Seeking Alpha

。Testla(TSLA)报告第一季度每股收益为1.24美元,营收为59.9亿美元。此前,市场平均预期该公司每股亏损28美分,营收61亿美元。---The Street

。卡特彼勒(CAT):第一季度非GAAP每股收益为1.60美元,怀于预期0.07美元; GAAP每股收益为1.98美元,好于预期0.25美元。 $ 10.64B(年比-21.2%)的收入低于预期$ 340M。 该公司警告说,冠状病毒大流行会造成“严重而混乱的”影响,但分析人士说,第一季度的结果并不像人们所担心的那样糟糕。 ---Seeking Alpha

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