。Latest world and US virus statistics：
Global cases: More than 1,504,900
Global deaths: At least 87,984
US cases: More than 424,900
US deaths: At least 14,529
。The Fed plan would inject another $2.3T into businesses and revenue-strapped governments, and expand previously announced corporate lending programs to include some classes of riskier debt that had been excluded.---Seeking Alpha
。Initial Jobless Claims: -200K to 6.606M vs. +5M consensus, 6.867M prior (revised from 6.6M). The four-week moving average rises 1.6M to 4.3M.. Seeking Alpha
。More than 16 million Americans have now lost their jobs in three weeks. If you compare those claims to the 151 million people on payrolls in the last monthly employment report, that means the U.S. has lost 10% of the workforce in three weeks.---CNBC
。Dr. Fauci is taking to cable news to spread the message of optimism that has lifted US stocks over the past few days: Instead of the 240k figure used by President Trump as recently as two weeks ago, Dr. Fauci told NBC News that if the public continued to stick to the "mitigation efforts", that the death toll might be as low as 60k.---ZeroHedge
。The forced closure of businesses across the United States and surge in unemployment due to the coronavirus pandemic will force U.S. growth to contract by 30% in the second quarter and 5% overall in 2020, Pacific Investment Management Co (PIMCO) wrote on Wednesday. In a blog post, Tiffany Wilding, a North American economist at PIMCO, wrote that evidence from recent jobs reports suggests the unemployment rate may rise as high as 20%. ---Reuters
。Oil prices ramp up following reports that Saudi Arabia and Russia have reached a deal on deep production cuts. Cuts could be as large as 20M bbl/day, Reuters reports, citing an unidentified Russian source and an OPEC source. ---Seeking Alpha
。It might not be until fall 2021 that Americans “can be completely safe” from COVID-19, Bill Gates said in a Tuesday interview with Judy Woodruff on PBS Newshour. That’s because it will take more than a year before a vaccine can be developed and deployed, according to researchers working to develop a treatment for COVID-19. ---CNBC
。Morgan Stanley writes that the despite the sharp rally, realized volatility has remained elevated with S&P 500 10d realized volatility still above 60% and VIX is still above 40 (an average daily move of 2.9%). This means that while the market recovery and vol compression are impressive, they are not enough to force material buying from systematic strategies (Vol Target Funds and Trend Following CTAs). To generate meaningful demand from Trend Followers, Morgan Stanley calculates that the S&P 500 would have to rally closer to 2900 (50d moving average, and many strategies wouldn’t even buy until prices are higher) .---ZeroHedge
。Too many people are focused on the pin and are ignoring the bubble that the pin pricked. You know, before the COVID-19 shutdown, the economy was long overdue for a severe recession, and the US stock market was long overdue for a bear market. So, I think the COVID virus simply accelerated the onset of both... So I would not get excited about this rally. I think we still have a long way to go on the downside. And the economy, I think, is going to be even worse.”---Peter Schif
美联储宣布购买垃圾债券，欧佩克与俄罗斯可能达成减产协议的消息今天早晨推动股市上涨。 道琼斯指数一度上涨578点，至接近24000，而标普500指数则曾高于2800。 但是，AMZN，FB，MSFT，GOOG，AAPL和INTC等大型科技股的疲软拖累了市场。 标普500未能守在2800以上，表明近期强劲反弹或已结束。 未来三天的周末也可能触发抛售以规避风险。 今天市场收盘下跌的几率很高。
。最新全球及美国病毒统计：
全球案例：超过1,504,900
全球死亡人数：至少87,984
美国案件：超过424,900
美国死亡人数：至少14,529
。美联储计划将向企业和收入拮据的政府再注资2.3T，并扩大先前宣布的公司贷款计划，以包括一些已被排除在外的高风险债务。---Seeking Alpha
。上周初报失业金人数：-200K到6.606M，而共识为+ 5M，之前为6.867M（从660M修订）。 四周移动平均线增加160万至430万。---Seeking Alpha
。现在，三周内已有超过1600万美国人失业。 如果将这些索赔与上个月的就业报告中的1.51亿就业人口进行比较，则意味着美国在三周内损失了10％的劳动力。---CNBC
。Fauci医生在接受有线电视新闻访问时传播乐观信息导致在过去几天里提振了美国股市：Fauci医生告诉NBC新闻，公众继续坚持“减灾努力”的话这， 认为死亡人数可能低至60k而不是特朗普总统两周前使用的24万的数字。---ZeroHedge
。太平洋投资管理公司（PIMCO）周三写道，由于冠状病毒大流行而导致的全美企业被迫关闭以及失业激增将迫使美国第二季度经济增长收缩30％，到2020年整体收缩5％。 PIMCO的北美经济学家蒂凡尼·怀林（Tiffany Wilding）在博客中写道，最近的就业报告显示，失业率可能会上升20％。---Reuters
。在有报道称沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯已就大幅减产达成协议后，油价上涨。 据路透社报道，援引俄罗斯身份不明的石油来源和欧佩克的消息来源，石油的减产量可能高达每天2000万桶。---Seeking Alpha
。比尔·盖茨在周二接受PBS Newshour采访的朱迪·伍德拉夫（Judy Woodruff）接受采访时说，直到2021年秋天，美国人才可以“完全安全”地摆脱COVID-19。据致力于开发COVID-19疗法的研究人员说，这是因为研发和部署疫苗需要一年多的时间。---CNBC
。摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）写道，尽管股市大幅反弹，但实际波动率仍保持高位，而标普500 10d的实际波动率仍高于60％，而VIX仍高于40 （平均每日变动2.9％）。这意味着，尽管市场复苏和成交量压缩率令人印象深刻，但不足以迫使人们从系统策略（以交易量为目标基金和趋势跟踪CTAs）中进行大量买入。摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）计算，标准普尔500指数必须反弹至接近2900点（50天移动平均线，许多策略甚至要等到价格上涨时才买进）。---ZeroHedge
。太多的人专注于击破气泡的钉，而忽略了钉刺破的气泡。 您知道，在因COVID-19关闭之前，经济早就应该陷入严重的衰退，而美国股市早就应该进入熊市。 因此，我认为COVID病毒只是加速了两者的发病……所以我对这次股市反弹并不感到兴奋。 我认为我们还有很长的路要走。 我认为经济将会变得更加糟糕。”---Peter Schif
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