。Foreign Markets
In Asia, Japan -4.5%. Hong Kong -2.2%. China -0.6%. India -4.1%.
In Europe, at midday, London -3.6%. Paris -3.6%. Frankfurt -3.2%.
Crude -1.2% to $20.23. Gold +0.7% to $1608.40. Bitcoin -2.2% to $6315.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -9 bps to 0.61%
---Wall Street Breakfast
。Latest COVID-19 Statistics：
Global cases: More than 873,767
Global deaths: At least 43,288
US cases: At least 189,633
US deaths: At least 4,081
。U.S. manufacturing activity contracted in March as the coronavirus outbreak continues to pressure the economy, data released Wednesday by the Institute for Supply Management showed. March’s ISM manufacturing index is 49.1, signaling contraction as coronavirus hits economyEconomists polled by Dow Jones expected the ISM manufacturing PMI to fall to 44.5 in March from 50.1 in February. ---CNBC
。President Donald Trump prepared Americans for a coming surge in coronavirus cases, calling COVID-19 a plague and saying the U.S. is facing a “very, very painful two weeks.” “This is going to be a rough two-week period,” Trump said at a White House press conference Tuesday. “When you look at night the kind of death that has been caused by this invisible enemy, it’s incredible.” . White House officials are projecting between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths in the U.S. with coronavirus fatalities peaking over the next two weeks.---CNBC
。With the S&P 500 headed for its worst first quarter since 1938 as evidence grew of the scale of the damage caused by the collapse in oil prices and business activity due to the coronavirus. ---Reuters
。A measure of U.S. consumer confidence fell sharply to 120 in March as people grapple with the global coronavirus outbreak. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected the consumer confidence index to fall to 110 in March from 132.6 in February. ---CNBC
。The dire 0.4% forecast would be a level the world hasn’t seen since the economic crash of 1982, when global growth was calculated at 0.43%, at the time the worst financial downturn since the Great Depression of 1929-1933. Before the coronavirus pandemic, S&P’s forecast for growth in 2020 was 3.3%. “The risks to our baseline forecast remain firmly on the downside since the translation from health outcomes to economic variables remains highly uncertain,” S&P Global’s report said. ---CNBC
。Goldman Sachs' Peter Oppenheimer notes, the speed of the declines is what stands out as being exceptional; it is hard to believe that the US equity market was trading at a record high just five weeks ago. Its fall into bear market territory (the first 20% decline) took place in record time, just 16 trading days, compared with 44 in 1929, the previous fastest fall. Meanwhile, volatility has been at record levels. After three consecutive days of moves of +/- 9% (the first such series since 1929), last week posted an 18% three-day rally in the US, and similar moves in many other markets. This was the strongest comparable return in the US since 1933 and in Europe on record. Oppenheimer weighs the bull and bear case , and his conclusion is clear: despite the scale of the policy support, which we agree is a necessary condition for markets to rebound, we think it is too early and the level and valuation of equity markets still too high. ---ZeroHedge
。周三，由于对冠状病毒爆发的担忧日益加剧。特朗普警告将有“两个非常痛苦的星期”。华尔街第二季度开始表现不佳，股市大幅下跌。琼斯指数下跌800点。 ADP和Moody's Analytics的数据显示，美国公司在3月12日之前裁员27,000人。 从3月20日的一周的初报失业人数看来，实际情况更坏。 --- CNBC
。国外市场
在亚洲，日本-4.5％。 香港-2.2％。 中国-0.6％。 印度-4.1％。
在欧洲，午间，伦敦-3.6％。 巴黎-3.6％。 法兰克福-3.2％。
原油下跌1.2％至20.23美元。 黄金上涨0.7％至1608.40美元。 比特币-2.2％至$ 6315。
十年期美国国债收益率-9个基点至0.61％
---华尔街早餐
。最新COVID-19统计：
全球案例：超过873,767
全球死亡人数：至少43,288
美国案件：至少189,633
美国死亡人数：至少4,081
。美国供应管理协会（Institute for Supply Management）周三公布的数据显示，由于冠状病毒的爆发继续给经济带来压力，3月份美国制造业活动萎缩 。3月的ISM制造业指数为49.1，表明冠状病毒打击经济后收缩。道琼斯（Dow Jones）接受调查的经济学家预计，ISM制造业PMI将从2月份的50.1降至3月份的44.5。 --- CNBC
。唐纳德·特朗普总统警告国人冠状病毒病例将会激增备，称COVID-19是瘟疫，并表示美国将面临“非常非常痛苦的两个星期”。 特朗普在周二的白宫新闻发布会上说：“这将是大约两个星期的时期。” “每当晚上看到这种看不见的敌人造成的死亡真是难以置信。” 白宫官员预计美国将有100,000至240,000人死亡，冠状病毒死亡人数将在未来两周达到峰值。
。标准普尔500指数进入自1938年以来最糟糕的第一季度，因为越来越多的证据表明，冠状病毒导致的油价下跌和商业活动造成的破坏规模越来越大。 ---路透社
。随着人们为应对全球冠状病毒的爆发而奋斗，美国消费者信心指数在三月份急剧下降至120。 道琼斯调查的经济学家预计，消费者信心指数将从2月份的132.6降至3月份的110。 --- CNBC
。标普可怕的0.4％经济增长的预测是自1982年经济崩溃以来全球从未见过的水平，当时的全球经济增长率为0.43％，当时是自1929-1933年大萧条以来最严重的金融衰退。 在冠状病毒大流行之前，标准普尔（S＆P）预测2020年的增长率为3.3％。 标普全球报告称：“由于从健康结果到经济变量的转换仍然非常不确定，我们的基准预测的风险仍然处于下行风险。” --- CNBC
。高盛（Goldman Sachs）的彼得·奥本海默（Peter Oppenheimer）指出，下降的速度是非同寻常的。 很难相信，仅在五周前，美国股票市场的交易价格才创下了历史新高。 它跌入熊市区域（跌幅首次为20％）发生在距离创纪录的时间仅16个交易日，而1929年则需要44天，是之前最快的跌幅。 同时，波动率一直处于创纪录水平。在连续三天+/- 9％的变动（此类波动为自1929年以来的首次）之后，上周美国连续三天上涨18％，在许多其他市场也出现了类似的变动。 这是自1933年以来美国和有记录以来欧洲最强劲的可比收益率。 奥本海默权衡了牛市和熊市的情况，他的结论很明确：尽管我们认为政策支持的规模是市场反弹的必要条件，但我们认为为时过早，股票市场的水平和估值仍然太高。---零对冲
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