Wednesday, April 15, 2020

Abandon Baby Pattern Ends Recent Market Surge弃婴形态结束近期市场暴升

Weak Asian and European stock markets, WTI crude oil dropping below 20, plunge in Industrial Production and Retail Sales and Goldman Sachs and Bank of America earnings misses are bad news for the market this morning. Major market indexes are down on average over 2%.  All 11 S&P 500 sectors are down. Weakest groups are basic material, industrials and financials. Technically,  after testing its 50 day moving average level at 2882 and failed yesterday, S&P 500 gapped open today and formed a bearish Abandon Baby pattern which means the recent up move has ended.  The failure to hold 2800 support means the index is to retest supports at 2660 and 2550 real soon.









。Latest world and US virus statistics:

Global cases: More than 2,011,725
Global deaths: At least 131150
US cases: More than 614,451
US deaths: At least 29,897

Russia has became the hot spot with overnight case increase of 3,388. Total cases has reached 24,490 and 198 deaths.

。US Industrial Production plunged 5.4% MoM (considerably worse than the 4.0% drop expected and the worst MoM since Jan 1946)...Also, after briefly turning positive YoY in February, March Industrial Production is down 5.49% YoY - the worst YoY drop since Nov 2009.---ZeroHedge

。Retail sales plunged 8.7% in March, the biggest decline since the government started tracking the series in 1992, after falling by a revised 0.4% in February, the Commerce Department said. ---CNBC

。Bank of America (BAC) Q1 EPS of 40 cents misses the 60 cents consensus as the bank takes a $3.6B reserve build due to a deteriorating economic outlook related to COVID-19. Goldman Sachs (GS): Q1 GAAP EPS of $3.11 misses by $0.18. Revenue of $8.74B (-0.8% Y/Y) beats by $820M.---Seeking Alpha

。With long-term financials becoming more untenable, J.C. Penney (NYSE:JCP) is reportedly considering bankruptcy protection. Reuters sources say the retail chain has enough cash to survive a few months of store closures, and rescue financing remains an option.---Wall Street Breakfast

。WTI crashed below $20 (tagging $19.20) overnight after API reported huge inventory builds and was not helped by comments from the International Energy Agency that a historic production cut deal won’t be enough to counter a record demand slump this year.---Zerohedge

。President Trump says he could start speaking with state governors as early as Thursday about reopening plans. The governors will be in charge of when and how to open, but FEMA and the CDC have reportedly developed guidelines on a safe, phased approach. Trump says that 29 states are in "good shape" regarding the coronavirus and could reopen earlier than May 1. --Wall Stree Breakfast

。The JPMorgan Chase CEO said that the business world’s return to normalcy will occur in phases and be determined by the conditions in regions and at specific companies. “A rational plan to get back to work is a good thing to do, and hopefully it will be sooner rather than later,” Dimon said Tuesday in a conference call with analysts. “But it won’t be May. We’re talking about June, July, August, something like that.”---CNBC

。The United States doesn’t have the capacity to test and trace Covid-19 cases — a key measure the country will need to start the process of reopening, according to the nation’s top infectious disease doctor. “We have to have something in place that is efficient and that we can rely on, and we’re not there yet,” Dr. Anthony Fauci said Tuesday in an interview with The Associated Press. He added that opening the country on May 1, after federal social distancing guidelines are set to expire, is “a bit overly optimistic” for many places in the US. This process, he said, would likely have to occur on a “rolling” basis and not simultaneously across the country. A key worry, he said, was that the US would see new outbreaks in places where officials may not be able to swiftly test and trace contacts of those who are infected. ---CNN

。California governor Newsom demand the following six conditions to relax shelter in place:
1.The ability to monitor and protect our communities through testing, contact tracing, isolating, and supporting those who are positive or exposed;
2.The ability to prevent infection in people who are at risk for more severe COVID-19;
3.The ability of the hospital and health systems to handle surges;
4.The ability to develop therapeutics to meet the demand;
5.The ability for businesses, schools, and child care facilities to support physical distancing; and
6.The ability to determine when to reinstitute certain measures, such as the stay-at-home orders, if necessary. ---Mish Talk





亚洲和欧洲股市的疲软,WTI原油跌至20以下,工业生产和零售销售暴跌,高盛和美国银行的盈利花哦于预期是今天市场上的坏消息。 主要市场指数平均下跌超过2%。 标普500指数的11个板块全部下跌。 最弱的群体是基础材料,工业和金融业。 从技术上讲,昨日标准普尔500在测试了2882年的50天移动平均线失败后,今天开盘裂口下跌,形成了看跌的“弃婴”形态,这意味着近期的涨势已经结束。 标普500未能维持2800支撑位意味着该指数很快会下跌测试在2660和2550的支撑位。







。最新世界和美国病毒统计:

全球案例:超过2,011,725
全球死亡人数:至少131150
美国案件:超过614,451
美国死亡人数:至少29,897

俄罗斯已成为热点地区,隔夜案件数量增加了3,388。 案件总数已达24490例,死亡198例。

。美国工业产值环比暴跌5.4%(远低于预期的4.0%降幅为 1946年1月以来最差的环比)...
此外,继2月份出现同比正增长之后,3月份工业生产同比下降5.49%-为自2009年11月以来最严重的同比下降.---Zerohedge

。美国商务部称,3月份零售额暴跌8.7%,是政府自1992年开始追踪该系列以来的最大跌幅,2月份修正后为下降0.4%。---CNBC

。美国银行(BAC)第一季度每股盈利40美分,低于市场预期的60美分,这是由于与COVID-19相关的经济前景恶化,该银行采取了$ 3.6B的储备金的原因。 高盛(GS):第一季度GAAP每股收益为3.11美元,低于预期0.18美元。 $ 8.74B(-0.8%Y / Y)的收入超过预期$ 820M。--Seeking Alpha

。随着长期财务状况变得越来越难以维持,据说J.C. Penney(JCP)正在考虑破产保护。 路透社消息人士称,这家零售连锁店有足够的现金来维持关闭门店几个月的时间,而救援融资仍然是一种选择。--Wall street Breakfast

。WTI跌破20美元(报19.86美元),API报告了庞大的库存量,国际能源署(International Energy Agency)认为历史性减产协议不足以应对今年创纪录的需求暴跌。-----Zerohedge

。特朗普总统表示,他最早可能在周四开始与州长就重启计划进行对话。 州长将负责何时及如何开放,但据报道,FEMA和CDC已就安全,分阶段的方法制定了指南。 特朗普说,有29个州在冠状病毒方面处于“良好状态”,并可能在5月1日之前重新开放。---Wall street Breakfast

。摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)首席执行官表示,商业世界的恢复将分阶段进行,并取决于地区和特定公司的情况。戴蒙在周二与分析师举行的电话会议上说:“有一个合理的计划来恢复工作是一件好事,希望它早日生效”。 “但是不会是五月。 我们预期六月,七月,八月之类的时间。” --- CNBC

。美国顶级传染病医生说美国没有能力测试和追踪Covid-19病例,这是必要的开始重新开放过程 的一项关键措施。 安东尼·福西医生(Anthony Fauci)周二在接受美联社采访时:“我们必须有一个高效且可以依靠的东西,而我们还没有做到这一点。” 他补充说,联邦社会隔离措施则即将到期,而5月1日对美国开放对于美国许多地方来说“有点过分乐观”。 他说,这一过程可能必须“滚动”进行,而不是在全国范围内同时进行。 他说,主要担心是,在官员们可能无法迅速检测和追踪感染者接触的地方,美国将会爆发新的疫情。---CNN

。加利福尼亚州州长纽瑟姆(Newsom)要求以下六个条件来放松居家防疫:
1. 通过测试,联系追踪,隔离和支持易感染或有机会受感染的人来监视和保护我们的社区的能力;
2,具有预防更严重COVID-19风险人群感染的能力;
3,医院和卫生系统应对突发事件的能力;
4,开发满足需求的疗法的能力;
5,企业,学校和托儿设施支持身体疏离的能力; 和
6,有必要确定何时重新启动某些措施的能力,例如在家中下订单。 ---Mish Talk

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