Friday, April 24, 2020

Major Test For The Market Is Next Week下周是市场的主要考验

In the face of weak Asian and European stock markets , Intel (INTC ) earnings forecast less than expected and not providing 2020 full year guidance and Google (GOOG, GOOGL) cutting  its second-half marketing budgets , major us stock market indexes still opened up. Even though they have lost most of their morning gains now, however the market has been resilient to bad news.  Of course, higher oil price and analysts raising Amazon (AMZN) price target are supportive to market The  big test is next week when big cap stocks will be reporting earnings and the earnings will likely determine which way the market will go.  These earnings  are Tusday's MMM, CAT, PFE, PEP, MRK, AMD and BP; Wednesday's FB and MSFT; Thursday's AMZN, AAPL and TWTR; Friday's XOM and CVX. As for now, yesterday's big down side reversal and today's lost of upside momentum are bearish for the market technically.  S&P 500 failing to break above April 17 high of 2880 also means short term pull back likely. S&P 500 supports are now 2600 to 2650 area. Resistance is 2880.








。Latest world and US virus statistics:

Global cases: More than 2,754,506
Global deaths: At least 192,317
US cases: More than 888,881
US deaths: At least 50,369
US new cases:2,439
Russia deaths: 615
Russia new cases: 5,849

。In Asia, the major markets closed lower with Japan falling 0.9% and China dropping over 1%. The Nikkei was led lower by tech names which declined after Intel issued a cautious outlook. This was the first weekly loss for the Nikkei in three weeks. The Shanghai saw a disappointing session and fell despite another rate cut by the PBOC to its targeted medium-term lending facility. In Europe, the major bourses are down about 1%. Sentiment has soured in the region following yesterday's negative headlines surrounding Gilead's COVID-19 treatement and the EU's lack of agreement over the structure of an economic recovery fund. EU banks are getting hit as well after S&P lowered the outlooks for both Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank. The lenders are down about 5% each.
---Briefing.com

。Oil rose for a third day on Friday, rebounding from a historic rout that saw a futures contract turn negative for the first time ever. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 3.5% to trade above $17 per barrel amid increasing bets for a U.S. production cut, bringing its three-day rally to more than 40%.---CNBC

。Intel (INTC): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $ 1.45 beats by $ 0.18; GAAP EPS of $ 1.31 beats by $ 0.11. Revenue of $ 19.83B (+ 23.2% Y / Y) beats by $ 1.17B. Intel said it expects $ 1.10 in adjusted earnings per share and $ 18.50 billion in revenue in the second quarter. Analysts polled by Refinitiv had expected adjusted second-quarter earnings of $ 1.19 per share on $ 17.97 billion in revenue. Intel said it would not give guidance for the full year. ---Seeking Alpha

。Google (GOOG, GOOGL) is slashing its second-half marketing budgets by as much as half, CNBC reports - a somewhat more drastic move than its CEO signaled last week. That will include a hiring freeze for full-time employees and contractors.---Seeking Alpha

。Price target increases gather for Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) as analysts continue to grow more bullish on the coronavirus-related demand tailwinds.

JMP Securities (Market Outperform, target up $200 to $2,650) sees Amazon as the "prime beneficiary" of the e-commerce surge and expects the trend to lead to long-term "consumer wallet share gains."

Stifel (Buy, PT up $200 to $2,600) calls Amazon "one of the best positioned companies" during the pandemic, which will accelerate changes in consumer behavior that could continue to benefit AMZN after the crisis.

MKM Partners (Buy, PT from $2,325 to $2,500) says AMZN will "gain incremental market share in eCommerce and Cloud computing," but the firm worries that near-term consensus estimates are too high.

--Seeking Alpha

。Despite the massive shift to remote work and the surge in demand for certain online services, the tech industry has seen a widespread drawdown in job listings. Jobs openings nationwide across the industry dropped more than 20 percent between mid-March and mid-April, according to analysts at Glassdoor. The pullbacks have been especially acute among private e-commerce companies, according to Thinknum Alternative Data. Many software firms, on the other hand, have increased postings or kept hiring relatively steady. ---CNBC

。President Donald Trump said Thursday that his administration may extend its national social distancing guidelines until early in the summer or later. “We may, and we may go beyond that,”  Trump said at a White House press briefing when asked if the federal guidelines would need to be extended at least until the start of summer. “We’re going to have to see where it is ... I think people are going to know just out of common sense. At some point, we won’t have to do that. But until we feel safe, we’re going to be extending.” ---CNBC

。Oil soared on Thursday, extending its rebound after major oil-producing nations said they would accelerate planned production cuts to combat the dramatic slump in demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic. US producers are also plan to shut down some production in order to help the supply and demand picture. ---Reuters

。A article on a closely followed therapeutic intended to help treat COVID-19 was reported to have shown disappointing results in a trial, according to an article by the Financial Times and Stat News. A clinical trial on the Gilead Sciences's drug remdesivir had been the World Health Organization and accidentally published, the FT reported and State reported. The FT said that researchers studied 237 patients, giving the drug to 158 and comparing their progress with the remaining 79. The story indicated that the drug showed significant side effects in some, with 18 patients taken off it. A WHO spokesperson told Stat that the manuscript is undergoing peer review and was published by accident. Earlier this month Chinese authorities had halted two trials for remdesivir, saying that there weren't enough patients to fully enroll the studies.---Market Watch


面对亚洲和欧洲股市的疲软,英特尔(INTC)的盈利预测低于预期且未提供2020年全年指导以及Google(GOOG,GOOGL)削减其下半年营销预算的情况下,美国主要股市指数今早仍能开高 。 尽管他们现在已经失去了大部分的早盘升幅,但是市场近期在坏消息下仍能保持向上的韧性。当然,继续上升的油价和分析师提高亚马逊(AMZN)价格目标都对市场构成支撑。主要市场测试将在下周进行,届时大型股将报告财报,而结果将决定市场走向。 这些财报是星期二的MMM,CAT,PFE,PEP,MRK,AMD和BP; 周三的FB和MSFT; 周四的AMZN,AAPL和TWTR和 星期五的XOM和CVX。 就目前而言,昨天的大幅下行逆转以及今天失去向上动能技术上对市场利空。 而标普500未能突破2880年4月17日高点,也意味着短期有可能回落。 标普500支撑位现在是2600至2650区域。 阻力是2880。








。最新世界和美国病毒统计:

全球案件:超过2,754,506
全球死亡人数:至少192,317
美国案件:超过888,881
美国死亡人数:至少50,369
美国新案件:2,439
俄罗斯死亡人数:615
俄罗斯新案件:5,849

。在亚洲,主要市场收盘下跌,日本下跌0.9%,中国下跌超过1%。科技股领跌日经指数,因英特尔发表谨慎的展望而下跌。这是日经指数三个星期以来的首次周亏损。尽管人行再次下调目标中期贷款工具的利率,但上海股市还是令人失望。在欧洲,主要交易所下跌约1%。在昨天围绕吉利德(Gilead)COVID-19 疗法测试的负面新闻以及欧盟对经济复苏基金的结构缺乏共识之后,该地区的情绪开始恶化。在标准普尔下调德意志银行和德国商业银行的前景之后,欧盟银行也受到打击。每家银行下跌约5%。---Briefing.com

。石油价格在周五连续第三天上涨,从期货价格首次出现负价历史性的下跌后反弹。 西德克萨斯中质原油上涨3.5%,至每桶17美元以上,炒家押注美国减产增加,使其三日涨势达到40%以上。---CNBC

。英特尔(INTC):第一季度非美国通用会计准则每股收益为1.45美元,较上年同期下降0.18美元; GAAP每股收益为1.31美元,比去年同期的0.11美元要高。 $ 19.83B(+ 23.2%Y / Y)的收入好于$ 1.17B。英特尔表示,预计第二季度调整后的每股收益为1.10美元,营收为185亿美元。 Refinitiv调查的分析师此前预计,第二季度调整后的每股收益为1.19美元,营收为179.7亿美元。英特尔表示将不提供全年预测。---Seeking Alpha

。据CNBC报道,谷歌(GOOG,GOOGL)将其下半年的营销预算削减了一半,这比其首席执行官上周表示的要激烈得多。 这将包括冻结全职员工和承包商的招聘。---Seeking Alpha

。由于分析师继续对冠状病毒相关的需求继续看涨,因此亚马逊(AMZN)的价格目标继续被上调。

JMP证券公司(市场表现优于大市,将目标股价上调200美元至2,650美元)将亚马逊视为电子商务激增的“主要受益者”,并预计这一趋势将导致长期的“消费者钱包份额增长”。

Stifel(买入,目标价上涨200美元至2,600美元)称亚马逊在大流行期间是“定位最好的公司之一”,这将加速消费者行为的变化,在危机过后后可能继续使AMZN受益。

MKM Partners(目标价从2,325美元升至2,500美元)表示,AMZN将“在电子商务和云计算中获得增量市场份额”,但该公司担心近期市场共识估计过高。

-Seeking Alpha

。尽管远程工作发生了巨大变化,并且对某些在线服务的需求激增,但科技行业的工作招聘大幅减少。 Glassdoor的分析师表示,从3月中旬到4月中旬,全国范围内的职位空缺下降了20%以上。根据Thinknum Alternative Data的数据,在私人电子商务公司中,这种回撤尤其严重。另一方面,许多软件公司增加了职位或保持相对稳定的招聘。 --- CNBC

。唐纳德·特朗普总统周四表示,他的政府可能将其全国社会隔离准则延长至夏初或更久。特朗普在白宫新闻发布会上被问及是否需要将联邦准则至少延长至夏季开始时说:“我们可能,而且我们可能会超越这一时间范围。” “我们将不得不去看看情况……我认为人们将会 出于常识而知道。在某些时候,我们不必这样做。但是,除非我们感到安全,否则我们将继续延长。” --- CNBC

。在主要产油国表示他们将加速计划的减产以应对由于COVID-19大流行而导致的需求急剧下降之后,石油周四飙升,延续了反弹。美国生产商还计划关闭部分生产,以改善供需状况。 ---路透社

。据《金融时报》和《统计新闻》报道,据报道一篇有关旨在帮助治疗COVID-19的密切关注疗法的文章在一项试验中显示出令人失望的结果。英国《金融时报》报道和Stat新闻报道,世界卫生组织已在吉利德科学公司GILD的药物瑞地昔韦的临床试验结果意外被发表。英国《金融时报》表示,研究人员对237名患者进行了研究,将158例患者给予该药,并将其进展与其余79例患者进行了比较。该报道显示该药物在某些患者中显示有明显的副作用,其中18例患者已将其停用。一位世卫组织发言人告诉Stat,该手稿正在接受同行评审,并且是偶然被发布的。本月早些时候,中国当局已停止了瑞姆昔韦的两项试验,称目前尚无足够的患者充分参加这项研究。

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