Risk Is Looming For The S&P 500标准普尔500指数的风险越来越大

After rising 29.4% from the March 23 low, the S&P 500 is in danger again. Technically, S&P 500 is facing 3 obstacles :

1. April 17 peak 2880
2. 61.8 fibonacci bounce level 2936
3. 200 day moving average level 3008

And Money Flow Index indicates overbought,  ADX is calm and -DX and +DX looks ready to turn, may be turning like what happened in February 20 when -DX spike over +Dx. There are more than 170 S&P 500 companies reporting earning this week and the big 5 companies  (AAPL, AMZN, FB, GOOG and MSFT) are included. Since the above 5 stocks have discounted a lot of good news, in their stock prices,  sell on earning news looks likely.   The S&P 500 is also  overbought and facing important resistances, it's ripe for it to come down also. Besides we are not likely to get off hook from the COVID-19 crisis this easy (in two moths? I don't believe it.) Near term supports are 2798 and 2619.

Down trend in oil price is not yet over as over supply persists.  It is going to drag down the stock market wit it. Oil price bounced 3 days in a row after recent sharp drop and is hitting heavy resistance at the $20 level.  It turned down again today.  As oil price drops so will the stock market.

Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Facebook (FB), Alphabet (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT) are now the biggest 5 companies in capitalization and they have now 20% of S&P 500 capitalization, the largest since 1980r. The larger this percentage goes, the more danger the stock market will be. In year 2000, capitalization of the largest 5 companies (Microsoft, GE, Cisco, Intel and Walmart) was 18% of S&P 500 and the market  crash ensued.

The present conditions of the United States are record deficit, record debt， record unemployment and the economy is in recession.  90% of the companies reported earnings did not provide guidance for 2020 because the unknown aspect of the COVID-19. And yet the  price of AAPL, AMZN,  FB, GOOG and MSFT compare with their year end prices are -3.4%, +30.4%, -7.4%, -4.3% and +11% as of April 24. They are priced too optimistically.  They are all reporting earning this week. Whether news is good or bad, sell on news is likely. The entire market rose sharply today, but surprisingly， it happened that all these five stocks fell except AAPL. Profit-taking may have begun. Followings are their technical situations:

AAPL: Money Flow Index  indicates overbought, CCI has turned down, near 100 day moving average resistance.

AMZN: Money Flow Index  indicates overbought, CCI has turned down, stock price  reversed down today .

FB: Money Flow Index  indicates overbought, CCI has turned down, stock price reversed down today at  200 day moving average resistance.

GOOG:  Money Flow Index  indicates overbought, CCI has turned down, reused down today below 200 day moving average resistance.

MSFT:  Money Flow Index , CCI have turned down, stock price  reversed down today.

Today CNBC consulted Jeffrey Gundlach's market opinion as follows:

Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine, said on Monday the stock market could sell off again to retest the low in March as he believes investors are too optimistic about the economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. “I think a retest of the low is very plausible,” Gundlach said on Monday on CNBC’s “Halftime Report.” “I think we’d take out the low. People don’t understand the magnitude of ... the social unease at least that’s going to happen.” “I’m certainly in the camp that we are not out of the woods.,” He said. DoubleLine had more than $148 billion in assets under management as of the end of 2019, according to its website.






从3月23日的低点上涨多于30%之后，标普500再次处于危险之中。技术上，标准普尔500指数面临3个障碍：

1. 4月17日高峰2880阻力
2. 61.8斐波纳契反弹水平2936阻力
3. 200天移动平均线3008阻力

$SPX资金流量指数显示超买，CCI已经下降，ADX处于平静状态，-DX和+ DX准备转向，可能像2月时那样-DX线向上交叉+ Dx。本周有170多家标普500指数公司报告收益，其中包括5大公司（AAPL，AMZN，FB，GOOG和MSFT）。 由于上述5只股票都已反映了很多好消息，因此有可能在财报后会获利回吐。 标普500指数也超买，并且面临重要阻力，下跌的时机已经成熟。此外，我们不会容易地从COVID-19危机中摆脱出来（两个月？我不信。）近期支撑位在2798和2619。

由于供应过剩，石油价格的下跌趋势尚未结束。 这将拖累股市。 在最近的大幅下跌之后，石油价格连续三天反弹，并在20美元的水平上遇到了严重的阻力。今天开始在跌。 随着油价下跌，股市也会下跌。

苹果（AAPL），亚马逊（AMZN），Facebook（FB），Alphabet（GOOG）和微软（MSFT）现在是市值最大的5家公司，它们现在拥有标准普尔500指数市值的20％，是自1980年代以来最高。 这个百分比越大，股票市场的危险就越大。 在2000年，最大的5家公司（微软，通用电气，思科，英特尔和沃尔玛）的资本总额为标普500的18％，随后市场崩盘。

美国的当前状况是创纪录的赤字，创纪录的债务，创纪录的失业率和经济处于衰退之中。因为COVID-19的未知如何结局， 在财报后，90％的公司未能提供2020年的指导。 然而，AAPL，AMZN，FB，GOOG和MSFT的价格在4月24日时与年末价格相比分别为-3.4％，+ 0.4％，-7.4％，-4.3％和+ 11％。 他们的定价过于乐观。 他们都在本周报告业绩。 无论消息是好是坏，报告后被抛售的可能性大。今天整个大市上升，但赶巧这五只股票除了AAPL外都下跌。获利回吐或已开始。以下是它们的技术指标情况：

AAPL：资金流向指标显示超买，CCI向下，股价今天在100天移动平均线被阻回落。

AMZN：资金流量指数显示超买，CCI转跌，股价今天反转向下。

FB：资金流量指数表明超买，CCI下跌，今天在200天移动平均线被阻反转回落。

GOOG：资金流量指数显示超买，CCI下降，股价今天反转向下并低于200天移动平均线阻力。

MSFT：资金流量指数及 CCI均已向下，今天股价反转向下。

今天CNBC咨询 了杰弗里·冈德拉克（Jeffrey Gundlach 的市场意见如下：

DoubleLine首席执行官杰弗里·冈德拉克（Jeffrey Gundlach）周一表示，股市可能会再次被抛售，并重新测试3月份的低点，因为他认为投资者对冠状病毒大流行带来的经济复苏过于乐观。 冈德拉克周一在CNBC的“半场报告”中说：“我认为重新测试低点是很合理的。” “我认为我们会跌低于低点。 人们至少不理解……社会不安的严重程度。” 他说：“我肯定，我们并没有走出困境。” 根据其网站的数据，截至2019年底，DoubleLine管理的资产超过1,480亿美元。