Thursday, April 23, 2020

Market Bullish Now , Negative Realities Still May Set In 现在市场看涨,负面现实仍会降临

Bank Of Japan announced unlimited QE and oil price rallying for the second day are main drivers for the stock market this morning. 4.43 million people applying unemployment benefits and sharp drop in March new home sales are being ignored.  Major market indexes are up over 1%. Market sentiment is bullish as it is focusing good things to come while leaving the realities ,the COVID-19's negative impact on the global economy. Some time later, the negative realities are to set in and hurt market. For now, the focus is on the S&P 500 April 17 high 2880 resistance level and the 2936 , the 62% bounce of the drop from all time high to March 27, low.  These two are strong resistances. It is very impressive that the market can bounce to near the 62% bounce level. If this level is broken to the upside, a total retrace to all time high is possible.







。Latest world and US virus statistics:

Global cases: More than 2,669,701
Global deaths: At least 186,380
US cases: More than 851,327
US deaths: At least 47,800
US new cases:2610
UK cases: 138,078
UK deaths: 18,738
UK new cases: 4583
Russia cases: 62,773
Russia deaths: 555
Russia new cases: 4774

。One day after the ECB announced that it - just like the Fed - would purchases fallen angle junk bonds, the BOJ, afraid it would be left behind in the global race to crush one's currency, is reportedly preparing to abandon its 80 trillion yen a year purchase limit for JGBs and will replace it with unlimited QE - also just like what the Fed unveiled exactly one month ago - when it meets for its next policy meeting on Monday, the Nikkei reports. Additionally, the BOJ is also set to double purchase targets for CP and corporate bonds, while keeping its Yield Curve Control in place, targeting the 10-year JGB at around 0% and maintaining  negative rate at -0.1%. ---ZeroHedge

。Initial Jobless Claims: -810K to 4.427M vs. +4.25M consensus, 5.237M prior (revised from 5.245M). The four-week moving average of 5.79M was up 280K from the previous week. --Seeking Alpha

。Sales of new U.S. single-family homes dropped by the most in more than 6-1/2 years in March and further declines are likely as the novel coronavirus outbreak batters the economy and throws millions of Americans out of work. The Commerce Department said on Thursday new home sales fell 15.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 627,000 units last month. The percentage decline was the largest since July 2013. February’s sales pace was revised down to 741,000 units from the previously reported 765,000 units. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast new home sales, which account for about 10% of housing market sales, plunging 15% to a pace of 645,000 units in March.---Reuters

。Energy stocks enjoyed a broad rally Thursday morning, enough to pace the S&P 500's 11 sectors in gains, as crude oil prices soared for a second day after the historic drubbing earlier this week. The SPDR Energy Select Sector ETF XLE, +4.17% climbed 3.7% with 24 of 27 components gaining ground. Leading the way was Apache Corp.'s stock APA,  which shot up 10.8% toward a 6-week high, and has not shot up 23.1% over the past three days. Among the ETFs other more-active components,shares of Occidental Petroleum Corp. OXY,  rallied 5.3%, Marathon Oil Corp. MRO,  jumped 5.0%, Halliburton Co. HAL,  advanced 5.5% and Exxon Mobil Corp. XOM, tacked on 4.1%, while Kinder Morgan Inc. KMI,  slipped 2.2%. Crude oil futures CL00, shot up 28.2% after running up 19.1% on Wednesday, but has still only retraced 34% of the 47.8% plunge over Monday and Tuesday. The energy ETF has now gained 46.8% over the past month, making it the best performer among SPDR ETFs tracking the S&P 500's 11 sectors. Crude oil futures have shed 24.3% the past month and the S&P 500 has gained 26.5%.
---Market Watch

。The world's largest oil companies have been known for their dividend safety for years, but that may be changing amid a historic rout in crude prices. "In this extraordinary situation, we have decided to reduce the cash dividend for the first quarter 2020 by 67% [to $0.09]," Norway's Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) said in a statement. While most oil majors have already slashed investments and buybacks, the latest could be a signal of what's to come from others in the industry, including Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B), BP (NYSE:BP), Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), Chevron (NYSE:CVX), Total (NYSE:TOT) and ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP). ---Wall Street Breakfast

。Gap said its existing cash and the cash it expects to bring in might not be enough to sufficiently fund its operations, as its stores remain temporarily shut because of the coronavirus pandemic. The apparel company said in a securities filing that it must take further actions to find liquidity over the next 12 months, such as additional job cuts and new debt financing.  It added that beginning this month, it stopped paying rent on its temporarily shuttered stores, which amounts to roughly $115 million in monthly expenses in North America. ---CNBC






。最新世界和美国病毒统计:

全球案件:超过2,669,701
全球死亡人数:至少186,380
美国案件:超过851,327
美国死亡人数:至少47,800
美国新案:2610
英国案件:138,078
英国死亡人数:18,738
英国新案件:4583
俄罗斯案件:62,773
俄罗斯死亡人数:555
俄罗斯新案件:7744

日本央行宣布无限制的量化宽松和油价第二天上涨是今天早上股市的主要驱动力。 443万人申请失业救济和3月份新房销售急剧下降被忽略。 主要市场指数上涨超过1%。 市场情绪看涨,因为它在关注美好事物的同时又抛弃了COVID-19对全球经济的负面影响的现实。 一些时间后,负面的现实还会伤害股市。目前,炒家焦点放在标普500指数4月17日的高点2880阻力位和2936,即从历史高点至3月27日的低点的62%反弹水平。这两个都是很强的阻力。 市场反弹至62%的反弹水平附近时非常令人鼓舞的。 如果向上突破该水平,则有可能完全回撤至历史最高水平。







。就像美联储一样,  欧洲央行宣布将购买垃圾债券的一天之后  ,日本央行担心会在全球货币贬值的竞赛中被抛在身后,据《日经新闻》报道,日本央行正准备放弃其每年80万亿日元的有限制购买日本国债而 将以无限制的量化宽松政策取代它,就像美联储一个月前刚刚公布的那样。这是在周一召开下一次政策会议时提出的。 此外,日本央行还设置了对国债和公司债券的双重购买目标,同时保持了其收益率曲线控制,将10年期日本国债的目标设定在0%左右并将负利率维持在-0.1%。---ZeroHedge

。初请失业金人数:-810K至442.7万,而共识为+425万,之前为523.7万(从5.245M修订)。四周移动平均值579万,比前一周增加了28万。---Seeking Alpha

。3月份,美国新单户住宅的销售量下降至6/1/2年来最大。随着新型冠状病毒的爆发严重打击经济并导致数百万美国人失业,这种情况有可能进一步下降。 美国商务部周四表示,上月新屋销售下降了15.4%,经季节性因素调整后的年率达到62.7万套。 百分比下降是自2013年7月以来最大。2月的销售速度从先前报告的76.5万间下调至741,000间。 路透社调查的经济学家曾预测,新屋销售将占住房市场销售的10%左右,三月份下降15%至645,000套。
---Reuters

。能源类股周四早盘大涨,足以引领标准普尔500指数11个板块的涨势。在本周初经历了历史性下跌之后,原油价格连续第二天飙升。 SPDR能源精选板块ETF XLE上涨3.17%,涨幅为4.17%,其中27个成份股中有24个上涨。领先的是Apache Corp.的股票APA,朝6周高点上涨了10.8%,在过去三天中上涨了23.1%。在其他活跃成分股中,Occidental Petroleum Corp.(OXY)上涨了6.56%,Marathon Oil Corp. MRO上涨了6.5%,Halliburton Co. HAL上涨了5.0%,上涨了5.5%,Exxon Mobil Corp.(XOM)涨4.41%; Kinder Morgan Inc. KMI下跌2.2%。周三上涨19.1%后,原油期货CL00上涨27.43%,但仍仅回撤了周一和周二暴跌47.8%的34%。过去一个月中,能源ETF上涨了46.8%,成为追踪标普500指数11个行业的SPDR ETF中表现最好的ETF。过去一个月,原油期货下跌了24.3%,标准普尔500指数则上涨了26.5%。

。世界上最大的石油公司多年来一直以股息安全着称,但随着原油价格的历史性暴跌,这种情况可能正在改变。挪威的Equinor(EQNR)在一份声明中说:“在这种特殊情况下,我们已决定将2020年第一季度的现金股息减少67%(至0.09美元),”尽管大多数石油巨头已经削减了投资和回购,但最新消息可能表明该行业的其他公司将会采取行动,包括荷兰皇家壳牌(RDS.A,RDS.B),英国石油(BP),埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil) (XOM),Chevron(CVX),Total(TOT)和ConocoPhillips(COP)。 ---Wall Street Breakfast

。Gap表示,由于冠状病毒大流行,其商店暂时关闭,其现有现金以及预期带来的现金可能不足以为其运营提供足够的资金。这家服装公司在一份证券文件中表示,它必须采取进一步行动以在未来12个月内找到流动性,例如额外裁员和新的债务融资。它补充说,从本月开始,它停止支付暂时关闭的商店的租金,这在北美每月约为1.15亿美元。 --- CNBC






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