Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Market Get Sold On Reopening News重新开放的消息却带来市场抛售

Investors are buying stocks this morning at the open as news of  the first wave of consumers emerging from the coronavirus driven quarantine. The opening states are Alaska, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas. Dow opened was up 379 points earlier and is now up only 9. Nasdaq Composite is the weakest index as it has turned  a 100 point gain to a 79 point drop now. Selling on the big 5 stocks AAPL, AMZN, FB, GOOG and MSFT are dragging the index down.  These stocks have been up too much and are subject to sell off. Technically, S&P 500 failed at the 61.8% fibonacci bounce level resistance near 2936 and retreats. This is probably as good as the S&P 500 can go for now.  It likely will come down to test the 2600 area. Market is now in down side correction mode, expect sell on earning news regardless of whether they are  good or bad. This is because Q1 is now irrelevant .









In Asia, Japan -0.1%. Hong Kong +1.2%. China -0.2%. India +1.2%.
In Europe, at midday, London +1.91%. Paris +1.43%. Frankfurt +1.27%.
Crude -5.8% to $12, Gold-2.5 to $1721.30.
Ten-year Treasury Yield  at 0.616%

April Consumer Confidence: 86.9 vs. 90.0 consensus; 118.8 prior (revised). Present situation index: 76.4 vs. 167.7 prior.“Consumer confidence weakened significantly in April, driven by a severe deterioration in current conditions,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. ---Seeking Alpha

33% of the respondents in the CNBC Fed survey believe the economy won’t be fully restored until the second quarter of 2022, but there are a wide range of views about the recovery.More money will be needed from the Federal Reserve and Congress to combat the pandemic slowdown. GDP will decline by 24% this quarter, respondents to the survey predicted. The unemployment rate will rise as high as 19% and remain elevated through next year, they said. Other highlights of  the survey: rates will remain at zero the rest of year, stocks will finish lower from here and there is a strong chance of a second contagion. ---CNBC

Looking to keep the money flowing, the central bank is buying up to $500B worth of state and local government bonds. Purchases of the paper will be in effect for counties with at least 500K residents, and cities with at least 250K residents (the previous cutoffs were 2M and 1M, respectively). This will allow for up to 261 state, city, and county issuers, up from just 76 previously, with the longest maturity extended to up to three years, from two years previously. ---Wall Street Breakfast

Carl Icahn says we won't see crude prices in negative territory again, WTI plunged 25% on Monday, slumped another 20% overnight to $10/bbl, and there are still 20 days to go until the June settlement date. Weighing on prices is a warning from BP (BP) of an unprecedented coronavirus shock. ---Wall Street Breakfast

Earnings reported by Seeking Alpha:

3M (NYSE:MMM): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.16 beats by $0.15; GAAP EPS of $2.22 beats by $0.24. Revenue of $8.08B (+2.8% Y/Y) beats by $220M.

United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.15 misses by $0.08; GAAP EPS of $1.11 misses by $0.13. Revenue of $18.04B (+5.1% Y/Y) beats by $870M.

Pfizer (NYSE:PFE): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.80 beats by $0.09; GAAP EPS of $0.61 beats by $0.14. Revenue of $12.03B (-8.3% Y/Y) beats by $650M.

BP (NYSE:BP): Q1 Non-GAAP EPADS of $0.24 misses by $0.01; GAAP EPADS of -$0.19 misses by $0.31. Revenue of $59.65B (-10.0% Y/Y) beats by $2.76B. Q2 outlook: Material impact in downstream. Product demand in fuels marketing to be significantly lower in European and North America businesses. In refining, a decline in product sales will lead to reduced utilization and significantly lower refining margins. In addition, a lower level of North American heavy crude discounts is expected.







第一波消费者从冠状病毒驱动的居家防疫中涌现的消息导致投资者今天早上在开市时入市买股。 开放的州有阿拉斯加,乔治亚州,南卡罗来纳州,田纳西州,德克萨斯州。 道琼斯指数早些时候曾上涨379点,现在只上升9点。纳斯达克综合指数是最弱的指数,因为它已经将100点的涨幅变成了79点的跌幅。 AAPL,AMZN,FB,GOOG和MSFT等5大股票的下跌拖累该指数下跌。 这些股票已经上涨太多,被抛售的机会大。 技术上,标准普尔500指数在2936附近的61.8%斐波纳契反弹水平阻力水平被阻回落。标准普尔500指数近期可能就会在这个水平止步。 它可能会下降测试2600区域。 市场现在处于下行修正模式,无论盈利好坏,都很有可能财报后股票被抛售。 这是因为第一季财报现在已无关紧要。








。在亚洲,日本-0.1%。香港+ 1.2%。中国-0.2%。印度+ 1.2%。
在欧洲,伦敦上涨1.91%。 巴黎+ 1.43%。 法兰克福+ 1.27%。
原油-5.8%至12美元,黄金-2.5至1721.30美元。
十年期国债收益率为0.616%

。4月消费者信心指数:86.9对90.0预期。之前为 118.8(经修订)。目前状况指数:76.4,而之前为167.7。“由于当前状况的严重恶化,4月份的消费者信心大大减弱,”美国经济咨商局经济指标高级主管Lynn Franco说。 ---Seeking Alpha

。CNBC美联储调查的受访者中有33%认为经济要到2022年第二季度才能完全恢复,但对经济复苏的看法不一,美联储和国会将需要更多资金应对病毒大流行的放缓。受访者预测,本季度GDP将下降24%。他们说,失业率将上升至19%,并将持续到明年。该调查的其他亮点是:在剩下的时间里,利率将保持在零水平,从这里开始股票将走低,并且很有可能病毒再次爆发。 --- CNBC

。为了保持资金流动,中央银行正在购买价值高达$ 500B的州和地方政府债券。将购买至少有50万居民的县和至少有25万居民的城市(以前的截止人数分别为200万和100万)的地方债券。这将允许多达261个州,市和县的发行人,而以前只有76个,发行人可以将期限从两年前延长到三年。 ---Wall Street Breakfast

。卡尔·伊坎(Carl Icahn)表示,我们不会再看到原油价格出现负值的情况。 WTI周一暴跌25%,隔夜再跌20%,至10美元/桶,距离六月的结算日还有20天。英国石油公司(BP)警告称受到史无前例的冠状病毒震荡到来的冲击也拖累油价。 ---Wall Street Breakfast

。Seeking Alpha报告的财报:

3M(MMM):第一季度非公认会计准则每股收益2.16美元,较上年同期增长0.15美元; GAAP每股收益为2.22美元,好于预期0.24美元。 $ 8.08B的收入(同比增长2.8%)好于预期$ 2.2亿。

美国联合包裹运送服务公司(UPS):第一季度非GAAP每股收益为1.15美元,比去年同期下降了0.08美元; GAAP每股收益1.11美元,低于预期0.13美元。 $ 18.04B(同比增长5.1%)的收入超过预期$ 870M。

辉瑞公司(Pfizer)(PFE):第一季度非美国通用会计准则每股收益为0.80美元,较上一财年同期下降了0.09美元; GAAP每股收益为0.61美元,优于预期0.14美元。 $ 12.03B(年同比-8.3%)的收入超过$ 650M。

BP(BP):第一季度非GAAP EPADS亏损$ 0.24美元,低于预期$ 0.01; GAAP  -0.19美元低于预期0.31美元。 $ 59.65B(年率-10.0%)的收入超过过预期$ 2.76B。第二季度展望:对将来有重大负面影响。欧洲和北美企业的燃料营销产品需求将大大降低。在炼油方面,产品销量的下降将导致利用率降低,并大幅降低炼油利润。此外,预计北美重质原油折扣将有所降低。

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