Wednesday, April 22, 2020

Bouncing Oil And Earnings Supporting Market石油反弹和财报支撑市场

US stock market up strongly this morning due to strong bounce in oil prices and many better than expected corporate earnings. Senate passed bill for additional funding to help small business and Wedbush analyst moving up AMZN price target to 1750 also help. Technically, S&P 500 got turned back down from 2880 level 3 trading days ago after a 29% rally since March 23. The retracement should have more to go.  Base on Fibonacci retracement rule, it  is normal for it to come back down to the 2618 level as this level is the 38% retracement of the March 23 to April 17 move. However, if the S&P 500 is able to move above 2880, rally will continue.






。Latest world and US virus statistics:

Global cases: More than 2,580,707
Global deaths: At least 179,3072
US cases: More than 819,321
US deaths: At least 45,356
US new cases:577

。Negative reactions to earnings:
IBKR -8.9%, BIIB -11.53%, NFLX -2%, DAL -0.8%
Positive reactions to earnings:
SNAP +28%, STM +7%, CMG +9.4%,  TER +1.48%,  , TXN +2%, LYFT +1.7% , T +0.7%

。Oil jumped more than 15% on Wednesday, reversing steep losses after a volatile overnight trading session which saw international benchmark Brent crude fall to its lowest level in more than 20 years.
West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, rose $2.02, or 17.5%, to trade at $13.60 per barrel. Earlier in the session WTI had traded as low as $10.26. Brent crude traded 7%, or $1.37, higher at $20.68, after previously breaking below $16. Oil dropped  more than 70%  this year. ---CNBC

。The crash in U.S. crude prices has turned a reliable commodity less than worthless and given fresh urgency to bearish voices, who say it sounds alarm bells for global growth and are bracing for a catastrophic collapse in asset prices. The price crash also reflects the near total absence of energy demand. While that has some hoping cheap fuel could subsidize a swift return to global growth, it also means relief could be distant indeed for exporters and economies reliant on them. some market participants believe the transformation of “black gold” into a liability is more than a bet gone wrong, and rather heralds a new round of deflation and financial destruction as the COVID-19 pandemic wrecks the world economy.---Reuters

。Netflix added a record 15.8 million paid subscribers during the first quarter, almost double the 8.47 million forecast by Wall Street analysts. The company also clobbered its own forecast of 7 million, with droves of new customers binge-watching “Tiger King” or “Love Is Blind” to ride out the quarantine. The question now is how long the boom will last. Netflix expects 7.5 million new subscribers in the second quarter. Under normal circumstances, that would be a great quarter, but investors -- who sent the stock to new highs this week -- may have wanted more. Though they initially sent Netflix shares up as much as 12% after the close Tuesday, the rally soon fizzled. ---Bloomberg

。Shares of Amazon.com Inc. AMZN, +2.45% rallied 2.2% in morning trading Wednesday, after Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter raised his stock price target close to the fourth highest on Wall Street, a week before the e-commerce giant reports first-quarter earnings. Pachter reiterated his outperform rating and lifted his price target by 18% to $2,750, which is 16% above current levels. "Consumers are clearly spending more of their time and money shopping online in order to avoid crowds, driving the supply shortages and delivery delays on non-essential items that Amazon has disclosed in recent weeks," Pachter wrote in a note to clients. ---Market Watch

。Bank of America project an average gold price of $1,695/oz in 2020 and $2,063/oz in 2021. and lifts  our 18m gold target from $2000/oz to $3000/oz.True, a strong USD backdrop, reduced financial market volatility, and lower jewelry demand in India and China could remain headwinds for gold. But beyond traditional gold supply and demand fundamentals, financial repression is back on an extraordinary scale. Rates in the US and most G-10 economies will likely be at or below zero for a very long period of time as central banks attempt to push inflation back above their targets. Beyond real rates, variables such as nominal GDP, central bank balance sheets, or official gold reserves will remain the key determinants of gold prices, in our view. As central banks and governments double their balance sheets and fiscal deficits respectively, we have also decided to up our 18m gold target from $2,000 to $3,000/oz. ---Bank of America





由于油价的强劲反弹且企业财报很多好于预期,今天上午美国股市强劲上涨。 参议院通过了增加资金以帮助小型企业的法案及Wedbush分析师将AMZN的价格目标提高到1750也有帮助。 从技术上讲,自3月23日到4月17日以来上涨了29%,标普500从3个交易日前的2880水平开始回落。回撤应该还没完毕。基于菲波纳契回撤规律,回落至2618水平是正常的,因为该水平是3月23日至4月17日波动的38%回撤位。 但是,如果标普500能够突破2880,则反弹将继续。






。最新世界和美国病毒统计:

全球案件:超过2,580,707
全球死亡人数:至少179,3072
美国案件:超过819,321
美国死亡人数:至少45,356
美国新案件:577

。对令人失望的收入/指导作出的反应:
IBKR -8.6%,BIIB -6.4%,LAD -3.4%,NFLX -1.4%,BKR -0.8%
。对强劲的收入/指导:
SNAP + 19.3%,STM + 7.6%,CMG + 7.4%,TER + 6.7%,DAL + 3.5%,TXN + 2%,LYFT + 1.7%(撤回20财年rev / EBITDA指导),T + 0.7%

。隔夜交易时段动荡,国际基准布伦特原油跌至20多年来最低水平,周三油价跳升逾15%,扭转了巨幅亏损。美国基准西德克萨斯中质油上涨2.02美元,或17.5%,报每桶13.60美元。稍早时,WTI的交易价格低至10.26美元。布伦特原油上涨7%,或1.37美元,至每桶20.68美元,此前曾跌破16美元。今年石油的跌幅超过70%。 --- CNBC

。美国原油价格的暴跌已经使一种可靠的商品变得不值钱,并且引出出看跌的声音,他们说这是全球增长的警钟,要为资产价格的灾难性崩溃做好准备。价格暴跌还反映出几乎完全没有能源需求。尽管这有希望廉价燃料可以补贴全球经济的快速复苏,但这也意味着对依赖它们的出口商和经济体而言,复苏可能遥不可及。一些市场参与者认为,“黑金”转变为负累的意义不仅仅在于赌错了,而是预示着新一轮的通缩和金融破坏,因为COVID-19大流行摧毁了世界经济。---Reuters

。Netflix在第一季度增加了创纪录的1,580万付费用户,几乎是华尔街分析师预测的847万的两倍。还来超越了该公司自己的预测的700万,成群的新客户在居家防疫中疯狂观看“老虎王”或“爱是盲目的”。现在的问题是,好景将持续多久。 Netflix预计第二季度将新增750万订户。在正常情况下,这将是一个不错的季度,但投资者(本周将股票推至新高)可能会想要更多。尽管最初在周二收盘后他们将Netflix的股票推高了12%,但升势很快就消失了。 ---Bloomberg

。亚马逊AMZN股价周三早盘上涨2.45%,Wedbush分析师迈克尔·帕切特(Michael Pachter)在AMZN发布财报一周前将其股价目标提高至接近华尔街第四高。 Pachter重申了他的跑赢大盘评级,并将其目标价格上调了18%,至2,750美元,较当前水平高出16%。帕赫特在给客户的一份报告中写道:“消费者显然正在花更多的时间和金钱在网上购物,以避免拥挤,加剧了亚马逊最近几周披露的非必需品的供应短缺和交货延迟。” ---Market Watch

。美国银行预计,2020年黄金平均价格将为1,695美元/盎司,到2021年黄金平均价格为2,063美元/盎司,并将18个月金价目标从2000美元/盎司提高至3000美元/盎司。印度和中国对珠宝的需求可能仍然对黄金不利。但是,除了传统的黄金供需基本面之外,金融压制又回到了非凡的规模。随着中央银行试图将通货膨胀推回到目标上方,美国和大多数十国集团(G-10)经济体的利率很可能会长期处于零以下。我们认为,除了实际汇率外,诸如GDP,中央银行资产负债表或官方黄金储备之类的变量仍将是决定金价的关键因素。随着各国央行和政府资产负债表和财政赤字分别翻番,我们决定将18个月金价目标从2,000美元/盎司上调至3,000美元/盎司。---美国银行

No comments:

Post a Comment