Monday, April 6, 2020

Stock Market Volatility Up Again , What Next? 股市波动再次增大,下一步该怎么走?

US stock market surprisingly surge to the up side this morning. The Full Moon is in effect and the market turned volatile again after a couple days of calm. The reason behind the big rally this morning is due to the decrease in infected cases and death in both New York and Italy.  Major indexes are up nearly 5% now,I think it is an over reaction as New York deaths decreased only from 630 to 594 and these numbers can worsen at any time. No matter, the market has spoken. It is up today, we will just go with the flow. The important thing to watch today is S&P 500 resistance at 2660 area, In order for the market to continue rally, it need to break through this level.  From all time high level to today's level, S&P 500 is only down 23%. It is not enough with the serious COVID-19 pandemic still going on.  It is not enough on both percentage drop and time, as serious bear market in the past drops 51% and lasting 2 years. More down side is likely as corporate reporting season starts this week.





。Latest World and US virus statistics:

Global cases: More than 1,280,000
Global deaths: At least 69,789
US cases: At least 337,600
US deaths: At least 9,648

。Officials in New York and Italy reported notable declines in new cases and deaths on Sunday, helping to inspire the most positive reaction in futures to kick off a new trading week .“We are beginning to see the glimmers of progress,” Pence said at a White House news conference on Sunday. “The experts will tell me not to jump to any conclusions, and I’m not, but like your president I’m an optimistic person and I’m hopeful.”  ---ZeroHedge

In the age of the coronavirus, almost all analysts are "flying blind". And this is likely to lead to some shocks from earnings reports that will be felt across the street. Many companies have already admitted publicly that they have no clue where the pandemic is going to take their business.  Yousef Abbasi, global market strategist at INTL FCStone told Bloomberg on Thursday: “Things are changing drastically day by day because no one has ever seen this before. It’s almost like calling out an arbitrary number because the fundamentals are broken. ”It's not a question of whether or not there will be a drubbing across the board for all corporations. The question is how bad it is going to be. Only about 17% of all earnings estimates across the S&P 500 were revised last week. This compares to an economy where almost 100% of businesses are shut down - and where those that aren't shut down will definitely be feeling an impact. ---ZeroHedge

。The US surgeon general said this week is going to be the "hardest and the saddest" for "most Americans' lives," describing the upcoming grim period of the coronavirus pandemic in the United States as a "Pearl Harbor moment" and a "9/11 moment." ---CNN

。Saudi Arabia, Russia and other oil large producers are racing to negotiate a deal to stem the historic price rout, as diplomats pressed to get the U.S. to join the coalition. “President Putin and the Russian side in general are keen to engage in constructive negotiations, which is the only way to stabilize the international energy market,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in a pre-recorded interview aired on state TV on Sunday. Failure would mean a collapse in prices. ---Bloomberg

。President Donald Trump ramped up threats to use tariffs to protect the U.S. energy industry from a historic glut of oil, as efforts to forge a global deal to cut output appeared to lose momentum.Trump said Saturday at a White House press briefing he’d use tariffs if needed to protect the domestic oil industry, even as he predicted that Saudi Arabia and Russia would come to an agreement to cut output and stem the rout in prices. ---Bloomberg

。Boeing Co (BA.N) said Sunday it would extend its temporary suspension of production operations at its Washington state production facilities until further notice. The largest U.S. planemaker announced March 23 it would halt production at its Washington state twin-aisle jetliner factory as a temporary measure to help fight the coronavirus outbreak. Production had been expected to resume early this week. ---Reuters





今天早上,美国股市出人意料地飙升。 月圆效应生效了。市场平静了两天后,市场又开始大波动了。 今天上午大涨的背后原因是纽约和意大利的感染病例及和死亡人数减少了。各大市场指数大涨近5%, 我认为这是一个过度反应,因为纽约的死亡人数仅从630人减少到594人,而且这些数字随时都可能恶化。 没关系,市场说话了。既然上升,我们就顺其自然。 今天要注意的重要事情是标普500指数在2660区域的阻力,要使市场继续上涨,就需要突破该水平。 从历史最高水平到今天的水平,标准普尔500指数仅下跌23%,而 严重的COVID-19大流行仍在继续,这样的跌幅还是不够的。下降百分比和时间都不够,因为过去严重的熊市平均下降51%并持续了2年以上。 随着本周公司报告季节的开始,企业前景指引获奖将再推动市场下行。





。最新全球及美国疫情统计:

全球案件:超过1,280,000
全球死亡人数:至少69,789
美国案件:至少337,600
美国死亡人数:至少9,648

。纽约和意大利的官员周日报道,新病例和死亡人数显着下降,这有助于激发新的交易周开始的 积极反应。“我们开始看到进展的微光, 彭斯在周日的白宫新闻发布会上说。 “专家们会告诉我不要得急于做出任何结论,我不是,但是像你的总统一样,我是一个乐观的人,我充满希望。” ---ZeroHedge

。在冠状病毒时代,几乎所有分析家都是“盲目飞行”。 这很可能会导致企业财报告产生一些震动,这些冲击将在整个华尔街感受到。 许多公司已经公开承认,因为病毒大流行他们不知道将在哪里开展业务。 INTL FCStone的全球市场策略师Yousef Abbasi周四对彭博社说:“事情每天都在急剧变化,因为以前没有人见过。 这几乎就像随意喊出任意数字一样,因为基本面已被破坏。 ”这不是所有公司是否都会陷入困境的问题。 问题是它将变得多么糟糕。 在上周,标准普尔500指数成份股的所有收益估计中只有约17%进行了修订。 与之相比,几乎100%的企业都被关闭了,而那些没有关闭的企业肯定会受到影响。 ---Zero Hedge

。美国卫生部长表示,本周将是“大多数美国人生命中最艰难和最难过”,将即将在美国发生的冠状病毒大流行的严峻时期被描述为“珍珠港时刻”和“ 9” / 11时刻。”美国最大的传染病专家周日表示,美国正在“努力”控制冠状病毒危机,反之则“将是错误的说法”。 Anthony Fauci医生在CBS接受采访时警告美国人,“随着情况的升级,这将是糟糕的一周”,但“一周之内”左右的案例数应该会趋于平缓。---CNN

。沙特阿拉伯,俄罗斯和其他大型石油生产国都在竞相谈判,以阻止历史性的价格大跌,因为外交官敦促美国加入该联盟。克里姆林宫发言人德米特里·佩斯科夫(Dmitry Peskov)周日在国家电视台播出的预先录制的采访中说:“普京总统和俄罗斯方面总体上热衷于进行建设性谈判,这是稳定国际能源市场的唯一途径。” 失败将意味着价格崩溃。 ---Bloomberg

。唐纳德·特朗普周六在白宫新闻发布会上表示,唐纳德·特朗普总统加大了使用关税的威胁,以保护美国能源业免受历史性石油过剩的影响,为达成一项削减产量的全球协议的努力似乎失去了动力。 即使他预测沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯将达成一项削减产量并阻止价格暴跌的协议,也需要采取必要的关税保护国内石油工业。  ---Bloomberg

。波音公司(BA.N)周日表示,将延长其在华盛顿州生产设施的生产业务的暂时停工,直至另行通知。 美国最大的飞机制造商于3月23日宣布,将停止其华盛顿州双过道喷气客机工厂的生产,这是临时措施以帮助抵抗冠状病毒的爆发。当时 预计本周初将恢复生产。---Reuters

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