Market Near Turning Point 市场接近转折点

Plunging U.S. crude oil prices pulled global equity markets lower Monday. Investors again reminded that the economic damage of the coronavirus pandemic is real. However, buy dips on tech stocks are still happening as the Nasdaq Composite has turned positive from morning sell off while the Dow and S&P 500 are still down but have recovered a lot from morning lows. AMZN, NFLX and AMD are trading positive. Market's behavior sometimes is hard to understand while Funds and investors have their own agendas. I am curbing my bullish enthusiasm at this point and wait for the craziness to pass as more earnings and economic reports are likely to reveal bad situations.  Technically, all 3 major market indexes are at resistances and they are S&P 500 2900, Dow 24450 and Nasdaq 8600.  Market has already moved up about 30% from low , it looks like a good time to turn back down.

。Latest world and US virus statistics：

Global cases: More than 2,417,554
Global deaths: At least 166,113
US cases: More than 764,765
US deaths: At least 40,738

New COVID-19 hot spots:
Russia overnight case increase of 4,268. Total cases has reached 47,121 and 405 deaths.
Meico overnight case increase of 764 Total cases has reached8,261 and 686 deaths.

。New York City is canceling concerts, festivals and all other nonessential events through June as the city seeks to drive down its coronavirus infection rate, Mayor Bill de Blasio announced Monday. ---CNBC

。Oil prices crashed the most on record with the May WTI futures contract hitting its lowest level since 1999, plunging as low as $11 or down 38%, as nobody wants to take actual physical storage amid widespread fears crude storage will soon be full; meanwhile companies prepare to report the worst quarterly earnings since the financial crisis, while tens of thousands of people continue to get sick every day with the coronavirus. ---ZeroHedge

。Upgrades: ABBV (Out Perform), DD (Over Weight).
Downgrands: DIS (Neurtal), GILD (Hold), BA (Neutral)

。Followings are some comments from market watchers:
The chief investment officer of Guggenheim Investment sScott Minerd  said gains in the S&P 500 are unsustainable and the stock benchmark could fall as low as 1,200 when it retreats. "Investors who are sitting out there right now who rebalanced a few weeks ago and moved from fixed income to equities should probably think about rebalancing again,” he said Friday on a panel. “It could be 1,500, 1,600, 1,200" referring to how far the S&P could fall in its next crash.

Jeff Gundlach : “thanks to the Fed there will be no retest” will likely not come to pass either, leaving “a takeout of the March lows” as the base case.

"We're not playing," Charlie Munger tells Jason Zweig. "We’re like the captain of a ship when the worst typhoon that’s ever happened comes ... We just want to get through the typhoon." The sentiment may disappoint those expecting that The Oracle and his partner were plunging Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.A, BRK.B) massive pile of cash into the markets.

Bank of America CIO Michael Hartnett :"SPX 2850-2950 is a ceiling due to Profits & Politics" while "SPX 2350-2450 is a floor due to Positioning & Policy." In other words the next move is lower, but not too low.

 Goldman analysts and Morgan Stanley Chief Executive Officer James Gorman, both of whom said it’s unlikely that the market hits new lows. Gorman said the S&P 500 at 2,850 in the near term, then heading lower, he said on the panel hosted by the United Nations Office for Partnerships and the nonprofit Goal 17.

"We've really seen a significant bounceback in the last three weeks at levels that I think are too quick," said Jerry Braakman, chief investment officer at First American Trust. "When we see a strong move in one direction, where we think the fundamentals and the news can turn ugly, especially during an earnings cycle, we think that’s an opportunity where we could see a 5,10% selloff again."




周一早上美国原油价格拉暴跌拖低低了全球股市。 投资者再次被提醒，冠状病毒大流行的经济损失是真实的。 但是，纳斯达克综合指数脱离早盘抛售现在已转为正值，而道琼斯指数和标准普尔500指数仍在下跌，但已从早盘的低点中恢复了很多，科技股的逢低买入仍在发生。 AMZN，NFLX和AMD等科技股带领上升。 当基金和投资者都有自己不同寻常的想法时，市场行为是难以理解的。 我现在正在抑制我的看涨热情，并等待疯狂的过去，因为就在目前的财报和经济报告可能会显示出糟糕的情况。 从技术上讲，所有三个主要市场指数都处于阻力位，它们是是S＆P 500 2900，Dow 24450和Nasdaq 8700。市场已从低位上升近30%，看来是转跌的好时刻。

。最新世界和美国病毒统计：

全球案件：超过2,417,554
全球死亡人数：至少166,113
美国案件：超过764,765
美国死亡人数：至少40,738

新的COVID-19热点：
俄罗斯隔夜案件增加了4,268。 病例总数已达到47121，死亡405。
墨西哥隔夜病例增加764例，总计8,261例死亡和686例死亡。

。纽约市长比尔·德布拉西奥（Bill de Blasio）周一宣布，由于纽约市正试图降低其冠状病毒感染率，纽约市将在6月前取消音乐会，节日和所有其他不必要的活动。

。油价大跌，创下历史新高，5月WTI期货合约创下1999年以来的最低水平，跌至11美元，跌幅38％，原因是没有人愿意采取实际的实物储存，这是因为人们普遍担心原油储存将很快装满。同时，公司准备报告自金融危机以来最差的季度收益，而每天都有成千上万人继续感染冠状病毒。 ---Zero Hedge

。升级：ABBV（好于市场），DD（超重）。
降绒：DIS（中立），GILD（持有），BA（中立）。

。下面是一些市场观察家对市场的意见：

古根海姆投资公司的首席投资官斯科特•米纳德（SScott Minerd）说，标准普尔500指数的涨幅是不可持续的，股市回落时基准指数 可能会跌至1200点。他周五在小组论坛上说：“现投资者在几周前重新做了资产平衡，从固定收益转向了股票，现在应该考虑重新平衡。标准普尔可能会在下一次崩溃中跌落至可能是1,500、1,600、1,200”。

杰夫·冈德拉赫（Jeff Gundlach）：“由于美联储的支持，市场将不会重新测试低位”，而三月低点”可能就是低位。

“我们没有参与，”查理·芒格（Charlie Munger）告诉杰森·茨威格（Jason Zweig）。 “有史以来最严重的台风来临时，我们就像是一艘船的船长……我们只是想度过台风。”对于那些期望巴菲特和他的合伙人将伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司（BRK.A，BRK.B）大量现金投入市场的人们，这种情绪可能会感到失望。

美国银行CIO Michael Hartnett：“由于利润和政治因素，SPX 2850-2950是上限”，而由于“定位和政策”，SPX 2350-2450是下跌极限。换句话说，下一步是下跌，但不会太低。

高盛（Goldman）分析师和摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）首席执行官詹姆斯·戈曼（James Gorman）均表示，市场不太可能跌至新低。戈尔曼在联合国伙伴关系办公室和非营利组织目标17主持的小组会议上说，标普500指数近期将升至2,850点，然后走低。

第一美国信托（First American Trust）首席投资官杰里·布拉克曼（Jerry Braakman）表示：“过去三周，我们确实看到了大幅反弹，我认为这太快了。” “当我们看到一个方向的强劲走势时，同时我们认为基本面和新闻可能会变得丑陋，尤其是在收益周期内，我们认为这是一个机会，我们将再次看到5到10％的抛售。”