Thursday, April 16, 2020

Tech Rally Is Not Sustainable科技升势不能持续

Major market indexes opened up. Dow and S&P 500 turned down moments after open  due to weakness in Boeing, financial and oil stocks. While Nasdaq is supported by strengths in Amazon,  Netflix, software and semiconductor stocks.  FANG stocks(FB, AMZN, NFLX,GOOG) is hitting all time high. Surge in jobless claim, weak housing starts and plunge in Philly Fed index due to COVID-19 are curbing some enthusiasm.  Market is mix now with Dow and S&P500 down, Nasdaq  up. Technically, recent rally in S&P 5oo was terminated at 2851 level, just below the 50 day moving average 2872. It is now trading below another crucial level 2800.  For the market to continue its rally, the S&P 500 need to recover above the 2800 and 2872 levels. Technology stocks are surprisingly strong and are overbought and not sustainable. The odd favors that they come down and take a rest. Bad earnings and economic reports are the realities the market will be facing in the coming weeks.   The overall stock market likely coming down in the near term.

















。Latest world and US virus statistics:

Global cases: More than 2,108,931
Global deaths: At least 139,648
US cases: More than 645,872
US deaths: At least 32,504

New COVID-19 hot spots:
Russia overnight case increase of 3,448. Total cases has reached 27,938 and 232 deaths.
India overnight case increase of 422. Total cases has reached 12,561 and 191 deaths.

。Initial Jobless Claims  for the week ended April 11.: -1.37M to 5.245M vs.  6M consensus, 6.615M prior (revised from 6.606M). The four-week moving average rises 2.57M to 6.066M. That's 24M in initial jobless claims over the last four weeks against a U.S. workforce of about 162M. ---Seeking Alpha

。Philly joins Dallas and New York in its slump. Against expectations of a -32.0 print, Philly Fed crashed to -56.6 - the lowest since 1980 and the biggest 2-month drop in history. ---ZeroHedge

。U.S. housing starts for March came in at 1.216 million, the Commerce Department said on Thursday, compared to the expected 1.3 million. March’s data is worst monthly decline since March 1984, when there was a decline of 26.42%. This is a drop of 24% from the 1.599 million starts reported for the previous month.---CNBC

。The economic reports showed the double whammy of state shutdowns in mid-March on two pillars of the economy — the consumer and business. Both reports were even more dire than expected, and foreshadow even worse declines in April’s activity, with state shutdowns affecting areas responsible for more than 90% of the economy. March retail sales fell 8.7%, a record drop, with the only sign of activity at grocery and beverage stores, which saw sales grow by 25.6%. Economists expected an 8% decline in monthly sales. The consumer accounts for 70% of the economy. “The economy is clearly in ruins here,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank. “Nobody is buying cars, down 25.6%, nobody is buying furniture, down 26.8%, and eating and drinking places were down 26.5%.”---CNBC

。The global economic downturn has been so severe that already half of the world has asked the International Monetary Fund for a bailout, the organization’s chief said Wednesday.IMF said Tuesday it expects the global economy to contract by 3% this year, adding the world could see a 1930′s style recession. The fund had forecast a 3.3% economic expansion for 2020 in January. IMF chief noted the global economy could expand by 5.8% in 2021 if the virus is contained and new cases start to recede. ---CNBC





主要市场指数开盘上升。因波音,金融和石油股表现疲软导致道琼斯指数和标准普尔500指数开盘后回落。 纳斯达克则得到了亚马逊,Netflix,软件和半导体股票强劲的支持。 FANG股票(FB,AMZN,NFLX,GOOG)创造了历史新高。 失业救济人数激增,房屋开工疲软以及由于COVID-19导致的费城联储指数下跌,正在抑制一些买股热情。目前市场指数涨跌互见, 道琼斯指数和标准普尔500指数下跌,纳斯达克指数则上涨。 技术上,标准普尔5oo的近期涨势昨日终止于2851水平,仅低于50日移动平均线2872。现在其交易价格位于另一个关键水平2800以下。要使市场继续其涨势,标准普尔500指数必须恢复至2800和 2872水平之上。 科技股出奇地强劲,但已经超买并且不可持续。 他们需要跌下来休息一会儿。不良收益和经济报告是未来几周市场将面临的现实。整个股市短期仍偏于下跌。

















。最新世界和美国病毒统计:

全球案件:超过2,108,931
全球死亡人数:至少139,648
美国案件:超过645,872
美国死亡人数:至少32,504

新的COVID-19 热点:
俄罗斯隔夜案增加了3,448。 总病例已达到27,938,死亡232。
印度隔夜病例增加422。总病例已达到12,561例,死亡191。

。截至4月11日当周的初请失业金人数:-137万至524.5万,而市场共识为600万,此前为661.5万(从606.0万修正)。 四周移动平均线为增加257万,至606.6万。 在过去的四个星期中,初领失业金人数2400万,而全美国约有1.62亿的劳动力。---Seeking Alpha

。费城与达拉斯和纽约一样陷入低迷。 与预期的-32.0相比,费城联储(Flyly Fed)指数跌至-56.6-为自1980年以来的最低点,也是历史上两个月来最大的跌幅.---ZeroHedge

。美国商务部周四表示,3月份美国房屋开工数为121.6万,预期为130万。 3月的数据是自1984年3月以来最严重的月度下降,当时下降了26.42%。 这比前一个月的159.9万开工量下降24%。---CNBC

。经济报告显示,3月中旬,在州政府关闭中,消费者的经济和商业的两个经济支柱上身为可怕。 这两份报告甚至比预期的还要可怕,并且预示着4月份经济活动的下滑会更糟,因为州政府关闭影响了90%以上经济的地区。 3月份零售额下降了8.7%,创历史跌幅新高,只有食品杂货店和零售店活动的唯一的活动,销售额增长了25.6%。 经济学家预计月度销售额将下降8%。 消费者占经济的70%。 MUFG联合银行首席财务经济学家克里斯·鲁普基(Chris Rupkey)说:“这里的经济显然是一片废墟。” “没有人购买汽车,下降了25.6%,没有人购买家具,下降了26.8%,饮食场所下降了26.5%。”---CNBC

。国际货币基金组织负责人周三表示,全球经济衰退是如此严重,以至于全球已有一半的国家向国际货币基金组织(IMF)申请救助。IMF周二表示,预计今年全球经济将萎缩3%。或许会达到1930年代的经济衰退情况。 该基金在一月份时曾预测2020年经济增长.3%. IMF负责人指出如果能遏制这种病毒并且新病例开始消退,到2021年全球经济可能会增长5.8%。
--- CNBC




No comments:

Post a Comment