Traders do not believe production cut agreement between OPEC and Russia is large enough to combat declining demand, oil price is only up slightly this morning. This curbs us stocks from moving higher. Even though Goldman Sachs is calling bottom on US stock market this morning , weakness in big tech stocks and analysts downgrading on some semiconductor stocks curb buying enthusiasm. The failure of S&P 500 breaking above 2800 resistance last week and today also encourage selling. The big market rally of the last few days is due to investors discounting COVID-19 leveling off , but the market is facing the unknown of how difficult will it be for the economy to recover. Weak earnings and economic reports will likely depress stocks in the coming few weeks. As S&P500 failed to stay above critical resistance at 2800 after a big 15% surge since April 1 low, the bounce is ending. S&P 500 may pull back to support at 2550 to 2600 area in the coming days.
。Latest world and US virus statistics：
Global cases: More than 1,874,567
Global deaths: At least 116,388
US cases: More than 560,532
US deaths: At least 224,210
。Goldman's David Kostin writes that the combination of unprecedented policy support and a flattening viral curve have dramatically reduced downside risk for the US economy and financial markets and lifted the S&P 500 out of bear market territory. This takeover of capital markets means that Goldman's "previous near-term downside of 2000 is no longer likely" even as its "year-end S&P 500 target remains 3000 (+8%)."---ZeroHedge
。Craig Hallum downgraded NVIDIA (NVDA) to Hold from Buy and cut their tgt to $300 while lowering their gaming ests in FY21 to reflect the impact from the coronavirus and potential delay in next-gen GPU/says NVDA's next generation GPU which could be delayed a few months because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Morgan Stanley downgraded Texas Instruments (TXN) to Underweight from Equal Weight highlighting that TXN has performed in line with semis and well above some analog and MCU peers, posing greater risk to negative news still ahead. Goldman downgraded/assumed coverage on Micron (MU) with a Neutral (previously Buy rated) as they reduce out-quarter DRAM bit growth and NAND pricing assumptions for COVID-19 and cut normalized EPS (incl. SBC) from $6.70 to $4.85. Evercore ISI downgraded NXP Semi (NXPI) to In-Line from Outperform. ---Briefing
。China's first-quarter gross domestic product data are due on Friday. The Bloomberg consensus is for a 6% year-on-year contraction. Industrial-production data for March are also due and are expected to show a 7% contraction, while retail sales probably fell 10%. Fixed-asset investment is likely to slide 15% from a year earlier, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. ---Bloomberg
。OPEC+ will cut 9.7 million barrels a day -- just below the initial proposal of 10 million. The U.S., Brazil and Canada will contribute another 3.7 million barrels as their production declines. OPEC officials were still waiting to hear more from Group of 20 members -- though it’s not clear if those numbers will represent real cuts or just production idled because of market forces.---Bloomberg
炒家认为，欧佩克与俄罗斯之间的减产协议不足以应对需求下降，油价今早仅小幅上涨。 这抑制了美国股市上涨。 尽管高盛今早认为美国股市已触底，但大型科技股的疲软以及分析师对某些半导体股评级的下调抑制了购买热情。 标普500指数上周和今天都未能突破2800阻力位，这也鼓励卖出。 最近几天的大幅市场反弹是由于投资者提前对COVID-19疫情的趋于平静的反映，但市场正面临着经济复苏将有多困难的未知数。 疲弱的收益和经济报告可能会在未来几周打压市场。 自从4月1日低点大幅上涨15％之后，标普500未能保持在2800的关键阻力上方，反弹已经结束。 标普500可能在未来几天内回调至2550至2600区域的支撑位。
。最新世界和美国病毒统计：
全球案例：超过1,874,567
全球死亡人数：至少116,388
美国案例：超过560,532
美国死亡人数：至少224,210
。高盛的戴维·科斯汀（David Kostin）写道，空前的政策支持和扁平化的病毒曲线相结合，大大降低了美国经济和金融市场的下行风险，并使标准普尔500指数脱离了熊市。高盛说资本市场的这种接管意味着“S&P500近期不再可能跌低于2000水平”，即使其“标准普尔500年底目标仍为3000点（+8％）”。---ZeroHedge
。Craig Hallum将NVIDIA（NVDA）的股票评级从“买入”下调至“持有”，并将目标削减至300美元一股，同时降低了2021财年的游戏部分表现，以反映冠状病毒的影响以及下一代GPU的潜在延迟。因为COVID-19大流行NVDA的下一代GPU可能会延迟 几个月。 摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）将德州仪器（TXN）的股票评级从“等权重”下调至“减持”，这凸显了TXN的表现与半导体指数持平，并且远高于一些模拟和MCU同行，这对未来构成了更大的风险。 高盛将美光（MU）的股票评级下调至中性（先前为“买入”），因为它们降低了被COVID-19影响的季度DRAM比特增长和NAND定价假设，并将正常化的EPS（含SBC）从6.70美元下调至4.85美元。Evercore ISI将NXP Semi（NXPI）的股票评级从“好于大市”下调至“大市表现”。---Briefings
。在过去的两个月中，有两个相关但截然不同的问题困扰了金融市场：Covid-19封锁将持续多长时间及经济复苏将有多困难？ 投资者正反映疫情快将见顶，但不要忘记他们对第二个仍然一无所知。---Wall Street Journal
。中国第一季度国内生产总值数据将于周五公布。 彭博社的共识是收缩6％。 3月份的工业生产数据也将发布，预计将下降7％，而零售额可能下降10％。 彭博社调查的经济学家称，固定资产投资可能较上年同期下滑15％。---Bloomberg
。欧佩克+组织将每天减产970万桶，略低于最初提议的1000万桶。 随着产量下降，美国，巴西和加拿大将再贡献370万桶。 欧佩克官员仍在等待20国集团成员的更多消息，尽管目前尚不清楚这些数字是否代表真正的减产或只是由于市场力量而闲置的产量。---Bloomberg
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