。Latest world and US virus statistics：
Global cases: More than 1,938,655
Global deaths: At least 120,875
US cases: More than 587,752
US deaths: At least 23765
。JPMorgan Chase reported a big profit decline for the first quarter, but the stock rose 2.2% on record markets revenue. Johnson & Jonson shares gained 3.6% on better-than-expected earnings. Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings growth to decline 10.2% in the first quarter year-over-year, according to Refinitiv. There is also an unusually wide range of estimates given the unprecedented uncertainty from the coronavirus. Wells Fargo, meanwhile, reported first-quarter profits well short of expectations as the San Francisco-based bank set aside cash for credit losses amid the coronavirus pandemic. It reported earnings of 1 cent per share, below analyst estimates of 33 cents per share. ---CNBC
。China’s March trade data showed that dollar-denominated exports fell 6.6% YoY, while imports fell 0.9%. Analysts expected China’s exports to fall by 14% and imports to fall by 9.5%. The resilience in Chinese imports shows that the country’s economy is recovering from COVID-19 shutdowns. China’s official PMI for March also beat the expectations and expanded. ---Market Realist
。The International Monetary Fund predicted the “Great Lockdown” recession would be the steepest in almost a century and warned the world economy’s contraction and recovery would be worse than anticipated if the coronavirus lingers or returns. In its first World Economic Outlook report since the spread of the coronavirus and subsequent freezing of major economies, the IMF estimated on Tuesday that global gross domestic product will shrink 3% this year. ---ZeroHedge
。There is also an unusually wide range of estimates given the unprecedented uncertainty from the coronavirus. “Even the lowered forecast may prove optimistic given some analysts have not adjusted numbers since mid-March in response to the lockdowns in many major cities throughout the country,” said Jeff Buchbinder, equity strategist for LPL Financial. For the first quarter, 88 negative earnings pre-announcements have been issued by S&P 500 corporations, according to Refinitiv. A wave of major companies have already withdrawn their full-year guidance. ---CNBC
。Goldman Sachs capitulated on its brief infatuation with bearishness and turned bullish expecting the S&P to ramp right back to 3,000, Wilson doubled down and urging his clients "not to fight the Fed" on Monday morning raised his S&P500 base case to 3,000 from 2.750, The Fed surprised again last week, this time offering up to $2.3T in loan support while moving further down the quality curve with their secondary market purchases pushing into high yield. This move is in-line with our prior view that investors should have no doubt about the Fed's resolve to do whatever it takes to make sure this recession does not turn into a depression. ---ZeroHedge
。Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Thursday endorsed an optimistic prediction that the U.S. economy might reopen in May, even as more Americans die from Covid-19 .White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow has also said he believes the economy can open sooner than many predict, telling POLITICO on Tuesday that it was possible "in the next four to eight weeks. However, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned against trying to return to normal too quickly. "---Politico
。Morgan Stanley said that the United States will reopen as early as mid-May to late. Morgan Stanley also warned that a second wave of infection may erupt around November / December. ---ZeroHedge
。Fitch became the first rating agency to warn that the US AAA rating was at "risk of a near-term negative action" due to a damning set of reasons including soaring debt, shrinking GDP, and the "helicopter-money" anti-virus actions. Moments ago, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) issued a report which is sure to pour gasoline on that particular dumpster fire, when it projected that the US budget deficits will total more than $3.8 trillion this year, another $2.1 trillion in 2021, and will total just over $11 trillion by the end of 2025. ---Zero Hedge
在人们对冠状病毒曲线趋于平缓的乐观情绪推动下，随着全球大多数股票市场的上涨，今天上午美国股票指数大幅上涨。昨天大型投资公司高盛（Goldman Sachs）和摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）都说市场已触底也鼓励了买盘。从技术上讲，标准普尔500指数今早最高曾达到2844，之后回落。由于它位于2800以上，所以下一个阻力是50日移动平均线2891水平。这波的市场反弹没有交易量的支持，OBV与价格背离。CCI也显示市场超买。在今天早上的高点2844，标准普尔500指数从历史最高水平3394仅跌了16％。这还未足够反映COVID-19所造成的经济衰退。市场对经济快速复苏抱有太大的乐观情绪，当糟糕的收益和经济数据开始传来时，市场将会再度回落。摩根大通和富国银行今天早上都公布了比预期差的业绩，其股票最初随着市场上升，现在已经转跌, 分别下跌3.5%及4.5%。
。最新世界和美国病毒统计：
全球案例：超过1,938,655
全球死亡人数：至少120,875
美国案件：超过587,752
美国死亡人数：至少23765
。摩根大通（JPM）报告第一季度利润大幅下降，但由于创纪录的市场收入，该股上涨了2.2％。 强生（JNJ）的股票上涨3.6％，其业绩好于预期。 同时，富国银行（WFC）报告第一季度利润远低于预期，这是因为这家总部位于旧金山的银行在冠状病毒大流行期间为信贷损失预留了储备金。 该公司报告的每股收益为1美分，低于分析师预期的每股33美分。---CNBC
。中国3月份贸易数据显示，以美元计价的出口同比下降6.6％，而进口下降0.9％。 分析师预计，中国的出口将下降14％，进口将下降9.5％。 中国进口商品的回弹力表明该国经济正在从COVID-19停产中恢复。 中国3月份官方采购经理指数也超出了预期，并有所扩大。---Market Realist
。国际货币基金组织（International Monetary Fund）预测，“大锁定”（Great Lockdown）经济衰退将是近一个世纪以来最严重的一次，并警告说，如果冠状病毒持续存在或回归，世界经济的收缩和复苏将比预期的更糟。 国际货币基金组织周二估计，自冠状病毒传播和主要经济体随后冻结以来，其第一份《世界经济展望》报告中估计，全球国内生产总值今年将萎缩3％。
---ZeroHedge
。根据Refinitiv的数据，分析师预计标准普尔500指数第一季度的收入同比增长将下降10.2％。 考虑到冠状病毒的前所未有的不确定性，估计范围也非常广泛。 LPL Financial的股票策略师Jeff Buchbinder表示：“由于一些分析师自3月中旬以来并未调整数字以应对全国许多主要城市的封锁，因此降低了的预测可能还是乐观的。” 根据Refinitiv的数据，第一季度标准普尔500指数公司发布了88份负收益预告。 一部分大公司已经撤回了对全年的指引。--- CNBC
。高盛（Goldman Sachs）放弃对短暂看跌的痴迷，转而看涨，期望标准普尔500（S＆P500）今年会升至3,000点。Morgan Stanley的威尔逊（Wilson）也敦促其客户“不与美联储抗衡”。周一早晨，他将标准普尔（S＆P500）基本指标目标从2.750升至3,000点。 美联储上周再次以外地供高达$ 2.3T的贷款支持，同时随着二级市场购买推高收益率而进一步降低了质量曲线。 此举符合我们先前的观点，即投资者应毫无疑问的对美联储决心采取一切措施来确保这场衰退不会演变成萧条的决心。---ZeroHedge
。财政部长史蒂芬·姆努钦（Steven Mnuchin）赞同乐观的预测，即美国经济可能在5月重新开放，尽管更多的美国人会死于Covid-19。 白宫经济顾问拉里·库德洛（Larry Kudlow）也表示，他相信经济开放的时间可能比许多人预期的要早。他周二告诉Politico说在跟着的4至8星期可能重开。但美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）警告不要试图过快恢复正常。---Politico
。摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanleyput）估计最早将于5月中旬至下旬美国会重新开放。摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）还警告说，可能在11月/ 12月左右爆发第二波感染。 ---ZeroHedge
。惠誉成为第一家警告美国AAA评级处于“近期负面行动风险”的评级机构，这是由于一系列令人担忧的原因，包括债务飙升，GDP缩减以及“直升机派钱”等反病毒 动作。 负责任的联邦预算委员会（CRFB）发布了一份报告中预计美国今年的预算赤字总额将超过3.8万亿美元，到2021年将再增加2.1万亿美元 ，到2025年年底，总额将超过11万亿美元。---Zero Hedge
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