Bank Earnings Outlook银行财报展望

This week's influential earnings would be banks. Year over year earning are expected to be down 36% for banks according to Factsheet estimates. However over all bank stock performance for the the period between April 3 to April 9 has been bullisht. Bank ETF KBE rose from 24.10 to 30.79, a +28% move. Technically, KBE has formed a bullish Double Bottom pattern with resistance at 34, the resistance would be a +10.43% move from Thursday's close.

Followings are my analysis for individual bank stocks based on options trading before their earnings reports. Results are bullish.

Symbol     Price     Options premium      Put/Call    Bullish/ Bearish
                               priced move %          Ratio                                                    

JPM          102.76   4.3%                          0.46             Bullish
BAC           24.86   4.5%                           0.48            Bullish
C                 47.41   6.1%                          0.61             Bullish
WFC           33.20   5.3%                          0.41             Bullish
GS            184.26   4.12%                         0.51             Bullish
MS             41.08   4.16%                         0.66             Bullish

However, after KBE already moved up 28% before earnings, seemingly priced in a lot of good news. Which way bank stocks will go depend on their future outlook , earnings beat or not may not be as important.  Outlook is not likely to be good. Beware of sell on news.

Followings are what analysts are saying:

。From Factsheet:

Earnings Growth: For Q1 2020, the estimated earnings decline for the S&P 500 is -10.0%. If -10.0% is the actual decline for the quarter, it will mark the largest year-over-year decline in earnings reported by the index since Q3 2009 (-15.7%).

Valuation: The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 17.3. This P/E ratio is above the 5-year average (16.7) and above the 10-year average (15.0).

The Financials sector is expected to report the fifth largest (year-over-year) earnings decline of all eleven sectors at -18.5%. At the industry level, four of the five industries in this sector are projected to report a decline in earnings: Banks (-36%), Consumer Finance (-22%), Capital Markets (-12%), and Insurance (-2%). On the other hand, the Diversified Financials Services (+14%) industry is the only industry expected to report growth in the sector.


。MarketWatch summary of bank earnings estimates:


Analysts at Keefe Bruyette & Woods, led by Brian Kleinhanzl, lowered their median earnings estimates on March 31 for “universal banks” by 58% for 2020 and 50% for 2021, to reflect rising unemployment and loan losses, along with very low interest rates. Loan losses during recessions tend to maximize about six months after unemployment peaks, but the 2020 estimates were cut more because the banks will set aside reserves before most of the loans are actually charged-off.

Chris Kotowski and the team of analysts at Oppenheimer used the Federal Reserve’s “severely adverse” economic scenario from last year’s industry stress tests to estimate banks’ earnings performance through a coronavirus recession. That scenario includes a peak unemployment of 10%, which may turn out to be rather low for 2020. The analysts expect unemployment to peak between July and September, leading to maximum loan losses during the first quarter of 2021. “Thus, we see core economic earnings (i.e. pre-provision earnings less net charge-offs) declining throughout 2020, bottoming in 1Q21, and returning to more or less normal by 4Q21,” Kotowski wrote in a note to clients on March 31.

。Investors Business Daily Earnings Calendar for week of April 13 :

本周有影响力的将是银行财报。 根据Factsheet的估计，Q1银行的收入预计比去年同期下降36％。 但是，从4月3日到4月9日的这段时间里，所有银行股票的表现都是乐观的。 银行ETF KBE从24.10升至30.79，涨幅为28％。 从技术上讲，KBE已经形成了看涨的双底形态，阻力位在34，该阻力位比周四的收盘价还高+ 10.43％。

以下是我对基于单个银行股票的收益报告之前基于期权交易的分析。 结果是乐观的。

代号          价位    期权溢价显示            看跌/看涨l    看涨/看跌
                              股价将波动百分比     期权比例                                            

JPM          102.76   4.3%                          0.46                看涨
BAC           24.86   4.5%                          0.48                看涨
C                 47.41   6.1%                          0.61                看涨
WFC           33.20   5.3%                          0.41                看涨
GS            184.26   4.12%                         0.51               看涨
MS             41.08   4.16%                         0.66                看涨

但是，在财报前KBE已上涨了28％，看来这已经反映了很多好消息。银行股的走势取决于它们对前景的看法，第一季好与否可能并不那么重要。前景预期不见得会好。要提防银行股在财报后被抛售。

以下是分析师们的说法：

。Factsheet 报导：

收益增长：对于2020年第一季度，标准普尔500指数的估计收益下降为-10.0％。 如果该季度实际下降-10.0％，则将是该指数自2009年第三季度以来报告的同比最大跌幅（-15.7％）。

估值：标准普尔500指数的12个月前瞻市盈率为17.3。 该市盈率高于5年平均值（16.7）和高于10年平均值（15.0）。

金融业预计的报告将是所有11个行业的第五大（同比）收益下降幅度，为-18.5％。 预计该板块五个行业中的四个将报告收入下降：银行（-36％），消费者金融（-22％），资本市场（-12％）和保险（-2 ％）。 另一方面，多元化金融服务（+ 14％）行业是唯一有望实现该行业增长的行业。


。MarketWatch的银行收益估算摘要：

由Brian Kleinhanzl领导的Keefe Bruyette＆Woods分析师将3月31日对“通用银行”的中位收益预期下调：2020年-58％和2021年-50％，以反映失业率和贷款损失的上升以及利率非常低的情况。经济衰退期间的贷款损失往往会在失业率达到顶峰后的六个月左右达到最大，但由于银行将在实际冲销大部分贷款之前拨出准备金，因此下调了2020年的估计值。

克里斯·科托夫斯基（Chris Kotowski）和奥本海默（Oppenheimer）的分析师团队使用了美联储（Fed）去年行业压力测试中的“严重不利”经济情景，通过冠状病毒衰退来估计银行的盈利表现。这种情况包括最高失业率为10％，到2020年可能会相当低。分析师预计，失业率将在7月至9月达到顶峰，从而导致2021年第一季度出现最大的贷款损失。“因此，我们看到2020年全年核心经济收入（即预备收入减去净销账）下降，并在21年1季度触底。并在21年4季度或多或少恢复到正常水平，”科托夫斯基在3月31日给客户的一份报告中写道。以下是Oppenheimer对一些银行的目标价预测：

。4月13日当周的投资者商业日报财报预期：