With the above background in mind, what will likely happen this coming Monday, April 6?
I say the odd of next Monday going down is high because:
1. The 67% chance of down Mondays statistic mentioned above.
2. Technically, the S&P 500 is on the way to retest it's March 23rd low of 2191 after a strong bounce hit resistance. Last Friday's market did not close well, market trend is down. In order for the market to get better, the two resistances need to get above are 2550 and 2260.
3. The stock market had been supported during the previous 2 days of trading due to a strong bounce in Crude Oil price as there was hope that the OPEC and Russia will meet Monday to discuss production cut. However, that hope has been dashed because the meeting has been put off according to latest news.
4. COVID-19 situation is the US is getting worse with no end in sight. Besides the state of New York, other up coming virus hot spots are Michigan, Louisiana, Florida and Illinois. New York columnist David Leonhardt said on April 3rd: “Five ways we know that the American response to the coronavirus isn’t yet working.
。There is still no sign of the curve flattening.
。The caseload is growing more rapidly here than in Europe.
。The shortage of medical supplies continues.
。There is still a testing shortage.
。Nationwide, the policy response remains inconsistent.
In the world, according to CNN reports, India and Japan have became virus spread hot spots. India is important because it is the world's 2nd most populated country as Japan is important because it is the third largest economy in the world.
The following graph shows that the global COVID-19 crisis is far from over.
5. April 7 is a full moon day, stock market usually is more volatile within a day or two of the full moon day. So, big move on Monday is likely.
。A meeting planned for Monday between officials of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other oil producers, which had buoyed hopes for a deal to end the turmoil in energy markets, has been put off, according to two OPEC delegates. The news comes as lingering tensions have surfaced once again between Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader, and Russia over who is to blame for the recent collapse in oil prices. On Friday, Russian President Vladimir V. Putin partly blamed Saudi Arabia for the price drop. The Saudis responded with angry statements from their ministers of foreign affairs and energy blaming Russia. News of the meeting’s delay may roil the markets when trading resumes on Monday.---NewYork Times
。Each day seems to bring more bad news for Tokyo. The daily count of new coronavirus cases has doubled in the past week, from about 40 in the final days of March to 97 on Thursday and 89 on Friday, according to the Tokyo Metropolitan Government. If the current trend continues, the outlook is bleak, said Kentaro Iwata, an infection control specialist from Kobe University, who has repeatedly warned that Japan isn't doing enough to halt the spread of the virus."Japan needs to have the courage to change, when we are aware we are on the wrong path," Iwata said. "We might see the next New York City in Tokyo."As of Friday, Tokyo had tested fewer than 4,000 people in a city of 13.5 million. And just 39,466 people had been tested in this nation of 125 million, according to the Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare.---CNN
。One of Asia's biggest slums has confirmed its first coronavirus death as top Indian doctors warn that the country must prepare to face an "onslaught" of cases that could cripple the health system to levels far beyond what Europe and the United States are experiencing.It comes as cases in India nearly doubled in four days, with many of the new infections linked to a religious gathering in the capital New Delhi. India has identified 154 attendees from the Tableegi Jamat gathering who have tested positive cases across the country, said Luv Agarwal, senior official with the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. India reported more than 230 new cases on Friday -- bringing the national total to 2,547 and 62 deaths. ---CNN
自从2月份美国股市开始崩溃以来，与一周中的其他几天相比，星期一是表现最差的一天。由于COVID-19的传播，自市场开始下跌以来，我们已经经历了6个星期一，其中有4个下跌，而只有2个上涨。这些天标准普尔500指数的表现如下：2月24日-112（-3.36％），3月2日，+136（+ 4.6％），3月9日，-225（-7.57％），3月16日-35 （-11.99％），3月23日，-68（-2.95％）和3月30日，+ 86（+ 3.38％）。以过去的六个星期一来看，星期一下跌的可能性是67％，平均下跌百分比是6.47％。星期一上涨的百份比只有33％，平均上升百分比为3.99％。
考虑到上述背景，4月6日星期一将会怎样发生？我说下周一下跌的几率很高，因为：
1。上述星期一统计数字显示下跌的可能性为67％。
2。从技术上讲，在强劲的反弹被阻回落后，标准普尔500指数即将重新测试3月23日的低点2191。上周五的市场收盘不好，股市看跌。为了使市场变得更好，要突破两个上方的阻力位2550和2260。
3。由于原油价格强劲反弹，在前两天的交易中股票市场获得支撑，因为人们希望欧佩克和俄罗斯将在周一开会讨论减产问题。但是，最新消息是会议推迟了，这种希望破灭。
4. COVID-19的情况在美国正在变得越来越糟，看不到尽头。 除纽约州外，其他即将到来的病毒传播热点还包括密歇根州，路易斯安那州，佛罗里达州和伊利诺伊州。纽约时报专栏作家David Leonhardt 4月3日写道 ：“我们通过五种方式知道美国对冠状病毒的反应尚未奏效：
。曲线没有变平的迹象。
。与欧洲相比，这里的案件量增长更快。
。医疗用品短缺继续存在。
。仍然存在测试不足。
。在全国范围内，政策反应仍然不一致。
在世界其他地方，根据CNN报导，印度和日本已成为病毒传播的热点。 印度之所以重要，是因为它是世界第二大人口大国；日本之所以重要，是因为它是世界第三大经济体。
下图显示，全球COVID-19危机还距离结束甚远：
5。4月7日是月圆日，股市通常在月圆的一两天内会波动较大。因此，周一大波动的可能性大。
。两位欧佩克代表说，计划在周一举行的石油输出国组织，俄罗斯和其他产油国官员之间的会议推迟了，该会议寄希望于结束能源市场动荡的协议。石油输出国组织事实上的领导人沙特阿拉伯与俄罗斯之间的紧张局势再次浮出水面。 周五，俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京（Vladimir V. Putin）将价格下跌归咎于沙特阿拉伯。 沙特阿拉伯以外交和能源部长以愤怒言论回应俄罗斯。周一交易恢复时，有关会议推迟的消息可能会扰乱市场。---纽约 时报
。每天似乎都给东京带来了更多的坏消息。 东京政府称，过去一周中，每天新感染冠状病毒的人数增加了一倍，从三月的最后几天的约40例增加到周四的97例和周五的89例。 神户大学感染控制专家岩田健太郎说，如果当前的趋势继续下去，前景将是黯淡的。岩田说：“当我们意识到自己走在错误的道路上时，日本需要勇于改变。” “我们可能会在东京看到下一个纽约市。截至上周五，东京在一个1,350万人口的城市中测试了不到4,000人。 根据卫生，劳工和福利部的数据，在这个拥有1.25亿人口的国家中，只有39,466人接受了测试。 --- CNN
。亚洲最大的贫民窟之一已经确认了其首例冠状病毒死亡，印度高级医生警告说，该国必须准备面对“悬而未决”的案件，这些案件可能使卫生系统的工作水平大大超出欧美国家的水平。 印度的病例在四天内几乎翻了一番，许多新感染病例与首都新德里的一次宗教聚会有关。 卫生和家庭福利部高级官员卢夫·阿加瓦尔（Luv Agarwal）表示，印度从Tableegi Jamat聚会中识别出154名参加者，他们对全国的阳性病例进行了测试。上周五，印度报告了230例新病例，全国总数达到2547例，死亡62例。 --- CNN
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