Stock Market Is Up But Is Getting More Risky 股市上涨但风险越来越大

Major stock indexes opened up and holding on positive testing result of Gilead's Remdesivir drug for the treatment of COVID-19 and strong price move for WTI crude. Investors beat up  BA and GOOG while selling off AMD and SBUX, all of them reported earnings,  and all of these companies warned on difficult future conditions.  Q1 GDP plunged to -4.8% Vs -4% expected, the worst since 2008. Nowadays, investors sentiment is so bullish that they only focus on good news but ignore the bad ones. This behavior is dangerous. The Federal Reserve is to decide on monetary policy at 11AM Pacific Time today. The stock market may hold its gain until then. Technically, the S&P 500 has crossed above its April 17 high 2880 and the next two resistances are 2936 and 3007. Stock market is now further overbought and getting even more dangerous and is not to be chased.

。Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD) says it’s aware of positive data emerging from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases’ ("NIAID") study of the investigational antiviral remdesivir for the treatment of COVID-19. “We understand that the trial has met its primary endpoint and that NIAID will provide detailed information at an upcoming briefing,” company says. The NIAID trial aimed to sign up 600-800 patients and give a definitive answer as to whether remdesivir can help treat the virus. Jefferies is out with a note, saying it expects the FDA to speed approval of the drug.---Seeking Alpha

。WTI  crude up 32% to 16.35 per barrel after smaller-than-expected crude build, production Plunged. ---Zero Hedge

。Gross domestic product declined at a 4.8% annualized rate last quarter, weighed down by sharp decreases in consumer spending and a drawdown of inventory at businesses. That was the steepest pace of contraction in GDP since the fourth quarter of 2008. A deepening downturn in investment by businesses was another major factor in the slump last quarter, helping to overshadow positive news from a shrinking import bill, the housing market and more spending by the government. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast GDP falling at a 4.0% rate last quarter, though estimates were as low as a 15.0% pace. The economy grew at a 2.1% rate in the fourth quarter.  The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)said that it could not quantify the full effects of the pandemic, but that the virus had partly contributed to the decline in GDP in the first quarter.
---Reuters

。Earnings reported by Seeking Alpha:

Boeing (BA): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of -$1.70 misses by $0.21; GAAP EPS of -$1.11 misses by $0.15. Revenue of $16.91B (-26.2% Y/Y) in-line. CEO David Calhoun says the company is targeting 10% staffing cuts, and exploring all options for additional liquidity.

Alphabet GOOG): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $9.87 misses by $0.89; GAAP EPS of $9.87 misses by $0.34. Revenue of $41.16B (+13.3% Y/Y) beats by $990M. “Performance was strong during the first two months of the quarter, but then in March we experienced a significant slowdown in ad revenues," says CFO Ruth Porat. “As of today, we anticipate the second quarter will be a difficult one for our advertising business,” Porat said.

Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.18 in-line; GAAP EPS of $0.14 in-line. Revenue of $1.79B (+40.9% Y/Y) in-line. Management warns about near-term demand uncertainty due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.32 in-line; GAAP EPS of $0.28 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $6B (-12.0% Y/Y) beats by $150M. With stores closed in Asia and Europe during the quarter, Starbucks (SBUX) reports global comparable store sales fell 10.0% in FQ2 to nearly match the -9.7% consensus estimate. Average ticket was up 4% and transaction growth down 13% during the quarter. Starbucks said it expects the negative impact of the coronavirus to intensify in the third quarter and then moderate in Q4.

。"As pork, beef and chicken plants are being forced to close, even for short periods of time, millions of pounds of meat will disappear from the supply chain," wrote Tyson Chairman John Tyson, patriarch of the company's founding family, in a Tyson Foods website post that also ran as a full-page ad in several newspapers. "The food supply chain is breaking." ---Tyson Food

。The International Rescue Committee (IRC) estimates that there could be up to one billion coronavirus infections and 3.2 million deaths in crisis-affected countries unless swift action is taken to curb its spread.  US deaths forecast: Dr. Chris Murray, director of the University of Washington’s Institute for Help Metrics and Evaluation, said the institute's scientific model had increased its predicted US coronavirus death toll from 60,000 to 74,000. More than 56,000 people have died in the US, more than a quarter of deaths worldwide.---CNN





主要股票指数因吉利德用于治疗COVID-19的伦德昔韦药物的正面测试结果以及WTI原油的强劲价格走势而高开并且维持在高位。 投资者在抛售AMD和SBUX的同时也推高了BA和GOOG，所有这些公司均报告了收益，而 所有这些公司都对未来的困境提出了警告。 第一季度GDP跌至-4.8％，而预期为-4％，为2008年以来最差。如今，投资者情绪极度乐观，以至于只关注好消息而忽略了坏消息。 这种行为是危险的。 美联储将于今天太平洋时间上午11点决定货币政策。 在决定发布前，股市可能还会保持涨势。 从技术上讲，标准普尔500指数已经越过了其4月17日的高点2880阻力，接下来的两个阻力是2936和3007。股票市场目前进一步超买而越来越危险，不容追涨。

。吉利德科学公司（GILD）表示，它已知道到来自美国过敏和传染病研究所（“ NIAID”）对抗病毒药物瑞姆昔韦 （ remdesivir）COVID-19的研究得出的正面数据。该公司表示：“我们了解该试验已达到其主要终点，而NIAID将在即将到来的简报中提供详细信息。” NIAID试验旨在招募600至800名患者，并就瑞姆昔韦是否可以帮助治疗该病毒给出了明确的答案。杰富瑞（Jefferies）评论表示有希望FDA会加快对该药的批准。---Seeking Alpha

。WTI原油上涨32％，至每桶16.35，此前原油产量低于预期，产量下降。---Zero Hedge

。上一季度国内生产总值（GDP）年率下降4.8％，受消费者支出大幅下降和企业库存减少的拖累。这是自2008年第四季度以来国内生产总值收缩的最快速度。企业投资下滑的加剧是上个季度经济下滑的另一个主要因素，这帮助抵消了进口费用减少，房地产市场和支出增加带来的利好消息。由政府。路透社调查的经济学家此前预计，上季度国内生产总值（GDP）将以4.0％的速度下降，尽管估计低至15.0％。第四季度经济增长率为2.1％。商务部经济分析局（BEA）表示，它无法量化大流行的全部影响，但该病毒在第一季度造成了GDP下降。
---路透社

。Seeking Alpha报告的收益：

波音公司（BA）：第一季度非公认会计准则每股亏损-1.70美元，较上年同期下降0.21美元; GAAP每股亏损-1.11美元，低于预期0.15美元。收入于预期相若为$ 16.91B（年同比-26.2％）。首席执行官戴维·卡尔霍恩（David Calhoun）说，该公司的目标是裁员10％，并探索所有增加流动性的选择。

Alphabet （GOOG，GOOGLe）：第一季度非GAAP每股收益为9.87美元，小于预期0.89美元; GAAP每股收益9.87美元，小于预期0.34美元。收入为$ 41.16B（同比增长13.3％）好于预期$ 990M。首席财务官露丝·波拉特（Ruth Porat）表示：“本季度的前两个月表现强劲，但随后在三月份，我们的广告收入大幅下降。我们预计第二季度对于我们的广告业务来说将是一个艰难的时期。”波拉特说。

Advanced Micro Devices（AMD）：第一季度非GAAP每股收益为0.18美元于预期相若； GAAP每股收益为0.14美元于预期相若。收入为$ 1.79B（同比增长40.9％）于预期相若。 管理层警告称，由于冠状病毒大流行，短期需求不确定。

星巴克（SBUX）：第二季度非GAAP每股收益0.32美元于预期相若； GAAP每股收益0.28美元，低于预期0.01美元。 $ 6B（年比-12.0％）的收入超过预期$ 150M。随着本季度在亚洲和欧洲的门店关闭，星巴克（SBUX）报告称，第二季度全球可比门店销售额下降了10.0％，市场预期为-9.7％。本季度平均销售上涨了4％，销售增长下跌了13％。星巴克表示，预计冠状病毒的负面影响将在第三季度加剧，然后在第四季度有所缓解。

。“随着猪肉，牛肉和鸡肉工厂被迫关闭，在很短的时间内，数百万磅的肉也将从供应链中消失，”泰森公司创始人家族董事长约翰·泰森在食品网站上的帖子及在几家报纸上整版广告刊登写道。。 “食品供应链正在中断。” ---泰森食品

。国际救援委员会（IRC）估计，受危机影响的国家最多可能有10亿例冠状病毒感染和320万例死亡，除非采取迅速行动遏制其蔓延。美国死亡人数预测：华盛顿大学帮助指标与评估研究所所长克里斯·默里（Chris Murray）博士说，该研究所的科学模型已将其预计的美国冠状病毒死亡人数从60,000人增加至74,000人。美国已有56,000多人死亡，占全世界有四分之一以上的死亡。