After a few days of upside action in the stock market, optimism rises quickly as a few analysts declare bottom. I am so confident (people are always confident in their views) to say that they are wrong. They are luring retail investors back into the stock market only to see the market drop another 20-30% in the near future.
Since the virus pandemic has not yet reached its peak, bad news will continue to arrive. More than a month ago, economists and analysts badly underestimated the impact of the pandemic on the economy. Even now they have made new estimates, I believe they will still be wrong. Because the impact on the economy is unpredictable before the outbreak is under control. Technically the rebound after market plunge is always temporary. After the rebound is completed, the routine action is that the last bottom will be retested. The S&P 500 will likely retest the Monday, March 23 low of 2191 level. Even if we go back down to this level, there is no guarantee that the market will stop there. If we believe that the economic impact of this coronavirus crisis is greater than that of the previous crisis (in the past few decades), then falling to the level of 2191 (-34%) should not be enough. I do believe that the present crisis is worse than any previous crisis since stock market drop the most in the fastest time in history and the panic response from the Federal Reserve and the federal government. Federal Reserve dropped interest rate twice to near 0 and the federal government passed the largest stimulus package in history. Since the worst bear markets in the past fell from 44% to 57%, the 5 worst bear markets average drop is 51% and it takes an average two years to recover, so why hurry to buy?
I have written two post to figure out where the bottom of the S&P 500 be and come up with 3 possible levels : 41% drop from historic high to 1985, 54% drop to 1576 and 67% drop to 1114.
I have a feeling that it will drop either 54% or 67%. For details please refer to "Three Drives To Bottom, We Are On Third Drive Down" https://tradeideablog.blogspot.com/2020/03/three-drives-to-bottom-we-are-on-third.html and "Where Is The Bottom For This Bear Market" https://tradeideablog.blogspot.com/2020/03/where-is-bottom-of-this-bear-market.html
After a 20.36% bounce from its 2191 low, the S&P 500 met its resistances at 50% retracement level 2666 and 20 day moving average 2612. These are the bounce objectives I predicted in post "How Much Can The Market Bounce" https://tradeideablog.blogspot.com/2020/03/how-much-can-market-bounce.htmlas . The bounce is over and will likely go down to retest 2191low. Market trend is down.
在几天的股市上涨行情之后，随着一些分析师宣布市场触底，投资人乐观情绪迅速飘升。我自信（人们总是对自己的观点充满信心的）的说他们错了。他们的言论吸引很多散户投资者重返股市，只是将会看到市场在不久的将来下跌多20-30％。
由于病毒大流行尚未达到高峰，坏消息将继续到来。一个多月前就有经济学家及分析师大幅低估了疫情对经济的冲击。即使现在他们又作了从新估计，相信他们还是会错的。因为疫情还未受到控制之前，对经济有多大的影响是无法预料的。从技术上讲，市场暴跌后的反弹总是暂时的。反弹完成后，常规操作是将重新测试上次的底部。标准普尔500指数可能会重新测试3月23日星期一的低点2191水平。即使市场跌回到这一水平，也无法保证市场会在那里就能停得住。如果我们认为这次冠状病毒危机对经济影响大于以前危机（过去几十年）的经济影响，那么仅下降到2191（-34％）的水平应该是不够的。我确实相信，当前的危机比以往任何一次危机都更加严重，因为股市跌幅是历史上最多最快的，而且美联储和联邦政府的恐慌反应证明了危机的严重性。美联储两次降息至接近零。联邦政府通过了有史以来最大的刺激计划。由于过去最糟糕的熊市跌幅是从44％至57％，5个最坏熊市平均下跌50％，并且平均需要两年时间才能恢复，那为什么还要急着买股票呢？
我之前有两篇博文指出可能的标准普尔500指数底部的位置，并提出了3种可能的水平：从历史高位下降41％到1985，下降54％到1576及下降67％到1114。我感觉它将下降54％或67％。有关详细信息，请参阅“三波下跌见底，我们在第三波下跌 ”https://tradeideablog.blogspot.com/2020/03/three-drives-to-bottom-we-are-on-third.html
及“这次熊市的底部在哪里？” https://tradeideablog.blogspot.com/2020/03/where-is-bottom-of-this-bear-market.html
从2191的低点反弹20.36％之后，标准普尔500指数在50％回撤水平2666和20日移动平均线2612处遇到阻力。这些都是是我在博文“市场能反弹多少”中预测的反弹目标。
https：// tradeideablog.blogspot.com/2020/03/how-much-can-market-bounce.html作为。 现在反弹结束，可能会下跌重新测试2191低点。 市场趋势下跌。
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