Three Drives To Bottom, We Are On Third Drive Down 三波下跌见底，我们在第三波下跌

Experience tell us stock will likely bottom after the third drive down. The S&P 500 has experienced two drives down since February 19,2020. It has now finished the bounce from the second drive down and may have began the third drive down. Where will the third wave down end? In order to find out, I am presenting the following exercise.

The first drive down was 538 points down from the all time high of 3394 to end at 2856. I am using 538 as the basis for calculations. Fibonacci extension is the method I use to derive where the bottom may be at. Fibonacci extension multipliers are 1.618, 2.618 and 4.238. As we multiply 538 by this multipliers we get 875, 1409 and 2280 respectively. By subtracting these from all time high of 3394 we get 2519, 1985 and 1114 respectively. Since the March 23 low is lower than 2519, that leaves 1985 and 1114 levels as the potential bottoms for the S&P 500. For the S&P 500 dropping to 1985 and 1114 levels, it would mean 41.5% and 67.2% drop from all time high.

In my blog post on March 20, "Where is the bottom of this bear market ?" https://tradeideablog.blogspot.com/2020/03/where-is-bottom-of-this-bear-market.html I used historical supports and Fibonacci retracements to find the bottom. Taken together, the conclusion is  -54% falling to 1576 level.

Together with this time's  calculations, we have -41.5% (1985), -54% (1576) and -67.2% (1114) possible bottoming levels. Let us consider these levels as the next three support levels for the S & P 500. Where it will really bottom depends on when the COVID-19 pandemic will end and how bad the economy will be impacted.





经验告诉我们，股价在第三次下跌后触底的可能大。 自2020年2月19日以来，标准普尔500指数下跌了两次。 现在，它已经完成了从第二次下降后的反弹，并且可能已经开始了第三次下跌。 第三波下跌将在哪里结束？ 为了找出答案，我提出以下计算练习。

第一次下跌是从3394的历史最高点下跌538点，至2856年结束。我使用538作为计算的基础。 斐波那契延伸是我用来得出底部可能在哪里的方法。 斐波那契延伸乘数是1.618、2.618和4.238。 当我们将这等乘数乘以538时，分别得到875、1409和2280。 通过从历史最高点3394减去这些数，我们分别得到2519、1985和1114。 由于3月23日的低点已低于2519，因此我只将1985和1114的水平留为标普500的潜在底部。如果标普500跌至1985和1114的水平，则意味着从历史最高水平分别下降41.5％或67.2％。

在我3月20日发出的博文“这次熊市的底部在哪里” https://tradeideablog.blogspot.com/2020/03/where-is-bottom-of-this-bear-market.html
曾用历史支撑及斐波那契回撤来寻找底部。综合起来得出的结论是下跌54%至1576。

 连同这次计算出来的， 我们有-41.5% （1985），-54% （1576）及-67.2% （1114）的可能见底水平。我们不妨用这些水平作为S&P 500 的下三个支撑位来看。究竟真正在哪里见底，就要视乎COVID-19疫情什么时候结速及它对经济的影响程度了。