Source Finviz.com
。Latest COVID-19 statistics:
Global cases: More than 466,000
Global deaths: At least 21,000
US cases: At least 65,100
US deaths: At least 900
。Consensus now expecting up to 750K newly laid-off workers seeking unemployment benefits, according to Southbay, historically one of the most accurate labor market forecasters, tomorrow's print will be a whopper at no less than 2.5 million! Prior Week Initial Claims (Actual): 281K, Current Week Claims Forecast (Consensus): 750K, Current Week Claims Forecast (SouthBay): 2,351K ---ZeroHedge
。A new report from Nikkei Asian Review states that Apple could delay the launch of its 5G iPhone over supply chain disruptions in China and new fears of demand issues as the global economy crashes. Sources told Nikkei that Apple has "held internal discussions on the possibility of delaying the launch by months, three people familiar with the matter said, while supply chain sources say practical hurdles could push back the release, originally scheduled for September."---ZeroHedge
。“While Buffett is well known for weathering the worst market downturns and coming out stronger, the last several weeks have been just as painful on his portfolio as it has on the broader market,” Bespoke explained in a post noting that the average stock in his top holdings is off 37%.---MarketWatch
。SeekingAlpha published an article by Bram De Hass that summarized the current situation as follows:
Where are we now?
The current state of affairs can be factually summed up as follows:
We’re in a bear market.
We’re 99.5% likely already in a recession.
There's a lot of uncertainty around COVID-19 and number dead will be increasing over the next few weeks, if not months.
Where are central banks?
The Fed can lower interest rates by 25bp until zero (possible to go lower but Jerome Powell is not a fan)
ECB interest rates are -50bp (lowest ever already/Denmark and Switzerland are even lower)
Japan interest rates are -10bp
Chinese interest rates are 225bp
Fed is doing (unlimited) QE 4.5
ECB is doing QE
Japan is doing QE
China isn’t doing QE (it is stimulating through fiscal policy)
Where's the government?
U.S. is deploying fiscal stimulus (likely to do helicopter money)
EU countries are deploying fiscal stimulus (some countries are doing helicopter money)
Japan is doing fiscal stimulus (considering helicopter money)
Hong Kong is doing fiscal stimulus (helicopter money)
What's perception like?
The V-shaped recovery is generally accepted as being off the table.
Perhaps the current most widely expected scenario is a U-shaped recovery.
A decent percentage of market participants think we can deal with the virus and move on.
Most participants put a high probability on further short-term declines in the equity markets.
The currently announced timeframes for social distancing and/or self-isolation are viewed as “hard” target dates but it could turn out significantly more time is required.
The crisis will be deflationary.
。周三是道指和标普500指数自2月以来的首次收盘价。 波音股价上涨24％，领跌道指。 耐克（Nike）上涨9.2％，也推动了道指的上涨。 纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.5％，至7,384.30点，Facebook，亚马逊，苹果，Netflix和谷歌母公司Alphabet的股票均下跌。 --- CNBC
源自Finviz.com
。最新的COVID-19统计：
全球案例：超过466,000
全球死亡人数：至少21,000
美国案件：至少65,100
美国死亡人数：至少900
。一直以来，市场共识预计将有75万新下岗的工人寻求失业救济，据历史上最准确的劳动力市场预测者之一的SouthBa说，明天的报告将会是不少于250万！ 前一周初次索赔（实际）：281K，本周索赔预测（共识）：750K, 本周索赔预测（SouthBay）：2,351K --- ZeroHedge
。《日经亚洲评论》（Nikkei Asian Review）的一份新报告指出，由于全球供应链中断，以及随着全球经济崩溃，对需求问题的新担忧，苹果可能会推迟推出5G iPhone。 消息人士告诉日经新闻，三位知情人士说，苹果“已经就推迟将发布推迟数月的时间进行了内部讨论，而供应链消息人士称，实际障碍可能会推迟原定于9月发布的发布。” --- ZeroHedge
。“虽然巴菲特以度过最严重的市场低迷而出名，但过去几周的投资组合和大盘一样痛苦，” Bespoke在一篇帖子中解释说，他所持股票平均下跌37％。---MarketWatch
。SeekingAlpha发表了Bram De Hass的文章，总结了当前经济与股市情况，如下：
我们现在的情况？
实际上，当前的状况可以总结如下：
我们在熊市中。
我们可能已经99.5％处于衰退中。
关于COVID-19的不确定性很大，在接下来的几周（甚至数月）内，死亡人数将会增加。
中央银行的行动？
美联储可以再将利率降低25个基点，直到降为零（可能会降低，但杰罗姆·鲍威尔不是粉丝）
欧洲央行利率为-50bp（丹麦/瑞士甚至更低）
日本利率为-10bp
中国的利率是225bp
美联储正在（无限量）量化宽松4.5
欧洲央行正在做量化宽松
日本正在进行量化宽松
中国没有进行量化宽松（但通过财政政策来刺激）
政府在做些什么？
美国正在部署财政刺激措施（可能会发钱）
欧盟国家正在部署财政刺激措施（一些国家在进行发钱）
日本正在采取财政刺激措施（考虑发钱）
香港正在实行财政刺激（已发钱）
展望如何？
V型恢复已被视为机会不大。
当前最广泛预期的情况可能是U型复苏。
相当多一部分市场参与者认为我们可以应对这种病毒并继续前进。
大多数参与者极认为股市有可能进一步下跌。
当前宣布的社会疏远和/或自我孤立的时间框架被视为“硬性”目标日期，但事实证明，这需要大量时间。
显示的危机会导致通缩。
No comments:
Post a Comment