While observing and following the stock market and the development of the COVID-19 development closely for the last 2 months, I further reaffirmed my believe : To predict market or stock trend one need to know how to analyze fundamental data, interpret market news, understand price charts and measure market sentiment. Experienced traders do that but not fundamental analysts and economists. You just cannot trust what the analysts and economists said or anybody for that matter. You must learn and equip yourself so you can trust yourself only. When you are equipped and experienced, you will be able to stand by your analysis and will not be easily sway. The followings are what I have noticed:
1. Many fundamental analysts are focusing too much on data analysis but not much chart reading while most technical analysts only focusing on charts but not fundamentals. They are so stuck with their own school of analysis and are not willing to use new things. No matter who you are, fundamental or technical analysts, if your knowledge is not balanced, you are not going to get things right. One need to have a open mind to accept new things, even the famous James Kramer of CNBC and thestreet.com has finally opened up to chart analysis after years of rejecting it.
2. Many stock analysts are just as emotional as retail investors and they also are influenced by the crowd. They keep chasing stock higher and forget about the basics. This is evidenced by recent analysts keep raising price targets of popular stocks like TSLA, AAPL, NVDA, AMD, MSFT...Etc. even though prices are at nose bleeding heights. As stock price move higher, many analysts will try to catch up by raising their price targets as their price targets on a stock falls behind the market price. They do that without respect to risks.
3. Many analysts and economists are vastly under estimate the negative impact of the coronavirus by saying it will soon past just like the previous epidemics had. That tells me they are busy analyzing using their own modeling tool and were not paying close attention to the development of the virus spread. Many of them kept saying economy will be doing fine base on the 2019 strong trend without respect to the power of the Black Swan Event---COVID-19. Black Swan means you don't know when it come and you don't know how it end.
4 .Another problem with many stock analyst is that they are long oriented and they don't recommend shorting stocks. The problem with that is they are not being objective and flexible on their analysis. They are also reluctant to say bad things about a stock.
3. Many analysts and economists are vastly under estimate the negative impact of the coronavirus by saying it will soon past just like the previous epidemics had. That tells me they are busy analyzing using their own modeling tool and were not paying close attention to the development of the virus spread. Many of them kept saying economy will be doing fine base on the 2019 strong trend without respect to the power of the Black Swan Event---COVID-19. Black Swan means you don't know when it come and you don't know how it end.
4 .Another problem with many stock analyst is that they are long oriented and they don't recommend shorting stocks. The problem with that is they are not being objective and flexible on their analysis. They are also reluctant to say bad things about a stock.
5. Individual investors are powerful when they act as a crowd. One reason why the stock market keep rising day after day before the market crash is the number of retail investors has increased drastically in recent months. Millions of new accounts were opened as brokerages lower transaction fee and even offer zero commission (they are also attracted by the crazy stock market returns). It is the inexperienced new retail investors chasing profits blindly that partly account for the nose bleeding stock prices. Famous stocks such as TSLA, AAPL, NVDA, AMD, MSFT, etc. were pushed up by them. Of course, it is hard not to blame the analysts for keep saying good for these stocks.
6. Another powerful force that drive the market higher is computer algorithmic trading . They are responsible in pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index hundreds of points up and down in matter of minutes. They are responsible for dropping the Dow by 1000 points a day for 4 days last week. Algorithmic trading mainly relies on reading headlines and technical analysis.
7. Economists are too conservative and are too slow in responding to new events. When IMF predicted that the coronavirus will only lower the global economic growth by only 0.1%, I know that they are dead wrong. How can one say that when half of China is lock down and situation is still out of control while the virus is spreading to other countries.
8. Economists that work for the the administration will become politicians themselves. The White House Chief Economist Larry Kudlow used to say what he wanted to say when he was with CNBC. As recent as last week, in order to calm the market and protect Trump, he said the US economy will not be impacted much by the coronavirus epidemic. He is not telling the truth.
9. When people are euphoric on something, they don't see things. I pointed out on February 12 that the market will drop big when realities hit. The realities I pointed out are analysts will unavoidably downgrade economic outlook , corporate earnings and stock price targets soon due to impact of the coronavirus. These should be easy to see. But I did not hear any body talk about these among analysts on mainstream media.
10. Beware when somebody ask you to keep buying the dips for the long term. You don't want to buy stocks when the market is clearly on a downtrend. The market may turn into a bear market. During the last two bear markets ( happened in 2000 and 2008) , market dropped over 50% each. Do you want to lose 50% first for the long term gains? For people with short term trading skill can do what they see fit because they are equip to deal with it.
在密切观察和跟踪股市以及最近两个月COVID-19病毒的发展过程中，我进一步重申了我的信念：要预测市场或股市趋势，需要知道如何分析基本数据，解读市场新闻，了解价格图表和衡量市场情绪。经验丰富的交易员会这样做，但基本面分析师和经济学家则不会。您不能相信分析师和经济学家所说的话，甚至任何人。您必须学习并装备自己，以至于能够信任自己。当您装备精良且经验丰富时，您将能够坚持您的分析而不会轻易摇摆。以下是我注意到的一些情况：
1。许多基本面分析师只做数据分析，但对图表的认识却不多，而大多数技术分析师仅关注图表研究，而缺乏基础知识。他们都非常执着于自己的分析学派，不轻易使用新方法。无论您是谁，基础或技术分析师，如果您的知识不均衡，您就不会做对事情。人们需要有一个开放的心态去接受新事物，即使是著名的CNBC和thestreet.com的詹姆斯·克莱默（James Kramer）在经过多年拒绝之后也终于接受了图表分析。
2。许多股票分析师和散户投资者一样都会被情绪控制，他们都会受到人群的影响。他们不断追逐股票，而忽略了基本知识。最近的分析师不断提高TSLA，AAPL，NVDA，AMD，MSFT ...等热门股票的价格目标就证明了这一点。即使价格达到令人喷血的高度，许多分析师会通过提高股票价格目标来追上市场价格，因为他们之前的股票目标价格低于市场价格。他们这样做毫不顾及风险。
3。许多分析师和经济学家都大大低估了冠状病毒的负面影响，并称它会像以前的流行病一样很快会过去。这说明他们只忙于使用自己的模式工具进行分析，而没有密切关注病毒传播的发展情况。他们中的许多人一直说经济在2019年经济的强劲势头带动下未来也会好而不考虑黑天鹅事件-COVID-19的破坏力。他们不明白黑天鹅意味着您不知道它什么时候来，也不知道它如何结束。
4。许多股票分析师的另一个问题是他们是看涨导向的，他们不建议做空股票。这样做的问题是他们的分析不能客观和灵活。他们也不愿说关于股票的坏话。
5。散户在合群行动时势力是很强大的。股市在崩盘前能够天天保持上涨的原因之一是近几个月来散户投资者的数量急剧增加。随着券商降低交易费用甚至提供零佣金后，数以百万计的新账户被开设（疯狂的股市回报也吸引了他们）。缺乏经验的新散户投资者盲目追逐利润是导致股价暴涨的部分原因。热门股票如TSLA，AAPL，NVDA，AMD，MSFT 等就是被他们不顾风险地推高的。当然分析师们的推波助澜也难辞其咎。
6。推动市场走高的另一强大力量是计算机程式交易。它们可以在短短几分钟内将道琼斯工业平均指数推动数百点上落。在上周内的4天中能每天导致道琼斯指数下跌1000点的部分原因也是他们的所为。程式交易主要是靠读头条新闻及技术分析。
7。经济学家过于保守，对新事件发展的反应太慢。当IMF预测冠状病毒只会使全球经济增长仅降低0.1％时，我知道他们是完全错误的。当中国一半人口处于封锁状态，局势仍处于失控，而病毒又正在蔓延到其他国家时怎会只是这么小的影响。
8。为政府工作的经济学家将会成为政客。白宫首席经济学家拉里·库德洛（Larry Kudlow）曾经在CNBC任职时能说自己想说的话。在上周，为了平息市场并保护特朗普，他表示，冠状病毒的流行不会对美国经济造成太大影响。这是违心之言。
9。当人们异常兴奋而失去理智时，他们是盲目的。我在2月12日指出，当现实到来时，市场将大幅下跌。我指出的现实情况是，由于冠状病毒的影响，分析师很快将不可避免地调低经济前景，公司收益和股价目标。这应该是浅而易见的。但在主流媒体上，我没有听到任何分析师谈到这些。
10。当有人叫您下跌就抄底，长期不怕时要当心。当市场明显处于下降趋势时，您不能随便购买股票。因为市场可能会演变成熊市。在最近的两个熊市（分别发生在2000年和2008年），每个熊市下跌都超过50％。您是否愿意先损失50％以获得长期收益？对于具有短期交易技能的人来说，他们可以做他们认为合适的事情，因为他们有能力应对。
10. Beware when somebody ask you to keep buying the dips for the long term. You don't want to buy stocks when the market is clearly on a downtrend. The market may turn into a bear market. During the last two bear markets ( happened in 2000 and 2008) , market dropped over 50% each. Do you want to lose 50% first for the long term gains? For people with short term trading skill can do what they see fit because they are equip to deal with it.
在密切观察和跟踪股市以及最近两个月COVID-19病毒的发展过程中，我进一步重申了我的信念：要预测市场或股市趋势，需要知道如何分析基本数据，解读市场新闻，了解价格图表和衡量市场情绪。经验丰富的交易员会这样做，但基本面分析师和经济学家则不会。您不能相信分析师和经济学家所说的话，甚至任何人。您必须学习并装备自己，以至于能够信任自己。当您装备精良且经验丰富时，您将能够坚持您的分析而不会轻易摇摆。以下是我注意到的一些情况：
1。许多基本面分析师只做数据分析，但对图表的认识却不多，而大多数技术分析师仅关注图表研究，而缺乏基础知识。他们都非常执着于自己的分析学派，不轻易使用新方法。无论您是谁，基础或技术分析师，如果您的知识不均衡，您就不会做对事情。人们需要有一个开放的心态去接受新事物，即使是著名的CNBC和thestreet.com的詹姆斯·克莱默（James Kramer）在经过多年拒绝之后也终于接受了图表分析。
2。许多股票分析师和散户投资者一样都会被情绪控制，他们都会受到人群的影响。他们不断追逐股票，而忽略了基本知识。最近的分析师不断提高TSLA，AAPL，NVDA，AMD，MSFT ...等热门股票的价格目标就证明了这一点。即使价格达到令人喷血的高度，许多分析师会通过提高股票价格目标来追上市场价格，因为他们之前的股票目标价格低于市场价格。他们这样做毫不顾及风险。
3。许多分析师和经济学家都大大低估了冠状病毒的负面影响，并称它会像以前的流行病一样很快会过去。这说明他们只忙于使用自己的模式工具进行分析，而没有密切关注病毒传播的发展情况。他们中的许多人一直说经济在2019年经济的强劲势头带动下未来也会好而不考虑黑天鹅事件-COVID-19的破坏力。他们不明白黑天鹅意味着您不知道它什么时候来，也不知道它如何结束。
4。许多股票分析师的另一个问题是他们是看涨导向的，他们不建议做空股票。这样做的问题是他们的分析不能客观和灵活。他们也不愿说关于股票的坏话。
5。散户在合群行动时势力是很强大的。股市在崩盘前能够天天保持上涨的原因之一是近几个月来散户投资者的数量急剧增加。随着券商降低交易费用甚至提供零佣金后，数以百万计的新账户被开设（疯狂的股市回报也吸引了他们）。缺乏经验的新散户投资者盲目追逐利润是导致股价暴涨的部分原因。热门股票如TSLA，AAPL，NVDA，AMD，MSFT 等就是被他们不顾风险地推高的。当然分析师们的推波助澜也难辞其咎。
6。推动市场走高的另一强大力量是计算机程式交易。它们可以在短短几分钟内将道琼斯工业平均指数推动数百点上落。在上周内的4天中能每天导致道琼斯指数下跌1000点的部分原因也是他们的所为。程式交易主要是靠读头条新闻及技术分析。
7。经济学家过于保守，对新事件发展的反应太慢。当IMF预测冠状病毒只会使全球经济增长仅降低0.1％时，我知道他们是完全错误的。当中国一半人口处于封锁状态，局势仍处于失控，而病毒又正在蔓延到其他国家时怎会只是这么小的影响。
8。为政府工作的经济学家将会成为政客。白宫首席经济学家拉里·库德洛（Larry Kudlow）曾经在CNBC任职时能说自己想说的话。在上周，为了平息市场并保护特朗普，他表示，冠状病毒的流行不会对美国经济造成太大影响。这是违心之言。
9。当人们异常兴奋而失去理智时，他们是盲目的。我在2月12日指出，当现实到来时，市场将大幅下跌。我指出的现实情况是，由于冠状病毒的影响，分析师很快将不可避免地调低经济前景，公司收益和股价目标。这应该是浅而易见的。但在主流媒体上，我没有听到任何分析师谈到这些。
10。当有人叫您下跌就抄底，长期不怕时要当心。当市场明显处于下降趋势时，您不能随便购买股票。因为市场可能会演变成熊市。在最近的两个熊市（分别发生在2000年和2008年），每个熊市下跌都超过50％。您是否愿意先损失50％以获得长期收益？对于具有短期交易技能的人来说，他们可以做他们认为合适的事情，因为他们有能力应对。
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