Another Disastrous Day To Start 又一个灾难性的一天开始

U.S. stock index futures are locked limit down with 5% declines. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY), however, faces no limits - it's down 10% in premarket action. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSEARCA:DIA) is also down 10%, and the Invesco QQQ ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ) is off 8.9%. Checking Europe close to midday, the Stoxx 600 (NYSEARCA:FEZ) is lower by 8.7%, led by a 10.4% decline in Spain (NYSEARCA:EWP).Oil is down 7.7% to $29.30 per barrel. Gold isn't catching any sort of bid - it's off 3% to $1,455 per ounce. ---SeekingAlpha

The IMF said it “stands ready” to use its $1 trillion lending capacity to help countries that are struggling with the economic impact of the coronavirus. “As a first line of defense, the Fund can deploy its flexible and rapid-disbursing emergency response toolkit,” wrote Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the IMF. The IMF’s announcement comes ahead of what’s expected to be another dismal day on Wall Street despite a move by the globe’s central banks to ease monetary policy.---CNBC

The Bank of Japan moved to accelerate asset purchases, doubling the amount of equity ETFs the central bank buys every year to 12 trillion.---ZeroHedge

Average GDP estimates are now down 0.7%, and JP Morgan expects the eurozone to enter into a deep recession in the next two quarters (-1.8% and -3.3% in the first and second quarters) followed by a very poor recovery that would still leave the full-year 2020 estimate in contraction. The investment bank also assumes a slump in the United States of 2% and 3% respectively, but a full-year modest growth. Capital Economics estimates a hit on the U.S. economy for the full-year that would cut 0.8% off previous estimates, with the U.S. still growing, but a larger impact on the eurozone, with full-year 2020 growth at -1.2%, led by a -2% in Italy. This, unfortunately, looks like just the beginning of a downgrade cycle that adds to an already slowing economy in 2019. ---ZeroHedge

While it may not be a surprise to too many people in the real world that Chinese macro-economic data for February was a disaster, it appears it was a massive shock to analysts and economists who forecast this data. Chinese Retail Sales crashed 20.5% YTD YoY - the first annual drop on record and four times worse than the -4.0% expectation. Chinese Industrial Production collapsed 13.5% YTD YOY - the first annual drop on record and more than four times worse than the -3.0% expectation. Fixed Asset Investment plunged 24.5% YTD YoY - the first annual drop and more than twelve times worse than the expected 2.% contraction.And to go with those stunning numbers, Property Investment puked 16.3% YTD YoY and the Surveyed Jobless Rate exploded to a record 6.2%. ---ZeroHedge

Global financial markets are now in a bottoming phase, and investors should start to add risk and sell the U.S. dollar, according to Morgan Stanley. The tightening of financial conditions has been fast and furious, caused by a slump in stock markets and a widening of credit spreads, strategists including Matthew Hornbach in New York wrote in a report published Friday. However, support measures, mainly by central banks so far, are helping to deliver easing and stabilize the situation, they said.“That’s not to say we’re ‘calling the bottom’ or we’ve seen the lowest prices in risk assets,” the strategists wrote. “But it is to say that we’ve entered the final phase of this severe, acute bear market. And that means we’re closer to the ‘early stage recovery’ phase than we were over the past three weeks. As such, our strategists around the world have begun suggesting the addition of risk.” ---Bloomberg





美国股指期货跌至5％而停市。 但是，SPDR S＆P 500 ETF（NYSEARCA：SPY）没有任何限制-在盘前交易中下跌了10％。 SPDR道琼斯工业平均指数ETF（NYSEARCA：DIA）也下跌了10％，QQQ ETF（NASDAQ：QQQ）下跌了8.9％。 Stoxx 600（NYSEARCA：FEZ）收盘下跌约8.7％，其中西班牙下跌10.4％（NYSEARCA：EWP），油价下跌7.7％至每桶29.30美元。 黄金没有买入意愿而下跌3％，至每盎司1,455美元。---Seeking Alpha

IMF表示，它“准备好”利用其1万亿美元的贷款能力来帮助那些正遭受冠状病毒经济影响的国家。 “作为第一道防线，基金组织可以部署其灵活且快速支付的应急工具包，”国际货币基金组织董事总经理克里斯蒂娜娜·吉尔吉耶娃（Kristalina Georgieva）写道。 尽管全球央行放松货币政策，但国际货币基金组织宣布这一消息之前，预计华尔街又将是惨淡的一天。---CNBC

日本银行采取行动加快资产购买，使日本央行每年购买的股票ETF数量增加一倍，达到12万亿。---ZeroHedge

目前，平均GDP估计值下降了0.7％，摩根大通（JP Morgan）预计，欧元区将在未来两个季度陷入严重衰退（第一和第二季度分别为-1.8％和-3.3％），随后复苏会非常缓慢，仍然会 使2020年全年的预算紧缩。 该投资银行还假设美国的经济衰退率分别为-2％和-3％，但全年却会温和增长。 凯投宏观（Capital Economics）估计，全年美国经济遭受重创，将比先前的预期削减0.8％，美国仍在增长，但对欧元区的影响更大，2020年全年增长为-1.2％，主要是由 在意大利为-2％。 不幸的是，这似乎只是降级周期的开始。---ZeroHedge

虽然对于现实世界中的太多人来说，2月份的中国宏观经济数据会是一场灾难并不令人感到意外，但对于预测这一数据的分析师和经济学家来说，这似乎是巨大的震惊。 中国零售业年初至今同比下跌20.5％，是有记录以来的首次年度下降，比预期的-4.0％差四倍。 中国工业生产年初至今累计下跌13.5％，是有记录以来的首次年度下降，比预期的-3.0％差四倍以上。 固定资产投资同比迄今暴跌24.5％-首次出现年度跌幅，比预期的-2.％收缩差12倍多;与此同时，房地产投资同比增长16.3％，调查的失业率暴增至 纪录6.2％。---Zero Hedge

摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）表示，全球金融市场目前正处于触底反弹阶段，投资者应开始增加风险并卖出美元。 包括纽约的马修·霍恩巴赫（Matthew Hornbach）在内的策略师在周五发表的一份报告中写道，由于股市下跌和信贷息差扩大，导致金融环境紧缩迅速而激烈。 但是，到目前为止，主要是由中央银行采取的支持措施正在帮助实现宽松政策并稳定局势。 策略家写道。 “但是可以说，我们已经进入了这个严峻的熊市的最后阶段。 这意味着我们比过去三周更接近“早期恢复”阶段。 因此，我们在全球的策略师已开始建议增加风险。”-彭博