The worry is now on the United States as it is on the verge of virus wide spreading. United States now has 222 confirmed cases and 12 deaths. The virus has spread to 18 states.
Following is a list of top 15 ranking countries base on GDP:
Country GDP ranking in Trillion dollar (Tn)
1 United States 22.20 Trillion
2 China 15.47 Trillion
3 Japan 5.50 Trillion
4 Germany 4.16 TTrillion
5 India 3.26 Trillion
6 United Kingdom 2.93Trillion
7 France 2.88 Trillion
8 Italy 2.09 Trillion
9 Brazil 2.06 Trillion
10 Canada 1.83 Trillion
11 South Korea 1.74 Trillion
12 Russia 1.67 Trillion
13 Spain 1.50 Trillion
14 Australia 1.48 Trillion
15 Mexico 1.30 Trillion
With China, South Korea, Japan, Germany, Italy, France and Spain under siege with COVID-19, more than half GDP of the top 15 countries are in trouble. Now the world's largest economy United States is on the verge of wide spread COVID-19 virus infection, a deep global recession seem fast approaching.
China:
The second largest economy started the Covid-19 virus spread. It has the worst virus spread in the world and its economy is being hit hard. It also disrupts the world's supply chain. “With the impact of the outbreak on the Chinese economy — which makes up about 20% of global gross domestic product (GDP) — the cascading effect might cause a drag of approximately 1 percentage point on global GDP growth if containment is delayed beyond the summer of 2020,” the D&B report states.
Japan:
Japan's economy is poised for recession after being hit by COVID-19. Even before the COVID-19 outbreak, the 2020-2021 economic outlook was a relative dull and unexciting one, with most forecasters predicting more or less flat growth of around 1 percent.
South Korea:
South Korea now has the most confirmed COVID-19 cases outside of China. Disruptions to major South Korean manufacturers were initially framed as temporary setbacks, but production delays have dragged on as the virus has spread further and has not yet contained. No doubt it is going to have significant impact to South Korea's economy. The Bank of Korea’s Composite Consumer Sentiment Index (CCSI) tracked a decrease from 104.2 in January to 96.9 in February – where numbers above 100 indicate a positive consumer outlook and below 100 a negative view. The 7.3 point drop is the largest fall since June 2015, when the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) hit South Korea.
Europe:
With Italy being the center of disaster and most countries in Europe are infected, Europe has basically fallen to COVID-19. Bad weather, trade war, changes to car-emissions testing, and low water levels in the Rhine: since 2017 Europe’s economy has been struck by a number of shocks, none of which hapless finance ministers or central bankers could control. Last year euro-area gdp rose by only 1.2%. Germany and Italy, which as big manufacturers were most exposed to America’s trade war with China, sank to the bottom of the zone’s growth rankings. Now COVID-19 is spreading across the Europe.With Germany and Italy already having zero growth at the end of last year, the effects of the coronavirus on business won’t help their prospects. Germany and Italy may tip into recession. French Economy and Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire acknowledged on Monday that the impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak on the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could be greater than expected, given the worldwide spread of the virus. According to the OECD, tourism accounts for 7% of France's GDP, and around 12% in Portugal and Spain.
With COVID-19 still spreading all over the world and US is on the verge of large scale spreading, virus containment is no where in sight, it is very likely global economy will fall into recession. Even though US stock market indexes on average have dropped around 15% from all time highs to last Friday's low, it does not look like the correction is enough. The odd of US stock market falling into bear market is high. When that happen, stock may drop 30 to 50% from highs. During the 2000 and 2008 bear market, the S&P500 went down 50% and 57% respectively. The negative impact of the COVID-19 virus is no less than the technology stock bubble of 2000 and the 2008 subprime crisis.
Stock index futures are tanking in after market hour trading again after a 969 Dow point drop at the close today:
全球现有有97,964确诊的COVID-19病例，包括3,352例死亡。 83个国家被感染。形势仍然严峻，并且没有被遏制的迹象。
尤为担忧的是美国正处于病毒广泛传播的边缘。美国现在已有222确诊病例和12例死亡。 该病毒已传播到18个州。
以下是基于GDP排名前15位的国家列表：
国家GDP排名（万亿美元）
1美国22.20万亿
2中国15.47万亿
3日本5.50万亿
4德国4.16万亿
5印度3.26万亿
6英国2.93万亿
7法国2.88万亿
8意大利2.09万亿
9巴西2.06万亿
10加拿大1.83万亿
11韩国1.74万亿
12俄罗斯1.67万亿
13西班牙1.50万亿
14澳大利亚1.48万亿
15墨西哥1.30万亿
由于中国，韩国，日本，德国，意大利，法国和西班牙受到较为严重的COVID-19病毒攻击，这意味着超过一半前15个国家的GDP陷入危机。现在，世界上最大的经济体美国也正处于COVID-19病毒广泛传播的的边缘，全球深度衰退似乎正在迅速到来。
以下是各个受病毒影响国家的情况：
中国：
世界第二大经济体是开始传播Covid-19病毒的国家。它是世界上病毒传播最严重的，其经济正遭受重创。这也破坏了全球的供应链。D＆B报告指出，“由于疫情对中国经济的影响（约占全球国内生产总值（GDP）的20％），如果病毒的遏推迟到夏季以后，连锁效应可能会拖累全球GDP增长约1个百分点。
日本：
即使在COVID-19爆发之前，2020-2021年的经济前景已经是相对平淡无奇的，大多数预测者预测只会保持在1％左右的平稳增长。受COVID-19打击后，日本经济很大机会陷入衰退。
韩国：
韩国目前是中国境外拥有最多COVID-19确诊病例的国家。对韩国主要制造商的破坏最初被认为只是是暂时的挫折，但是由于该病毒进一步传播并且尚未得到遏制，因此拖延了生产。毫无疑问，这将对韩国经济产生重大影响。大韩民国综合消费者信心指数（CCSI）从1月份的104.2下降至2月份的96.9，高于100表示正面的消费者前景，低于100的数字表示负面前景。下降7.3点是自2015年6月中东呼吸综合症（MERS）袭击韩国以来的最大跌幅。
欧洲：
意大利是灾难的中心，并且欧洲大多数国家都受到了感染，因此欧洲基本上已经沦陷于COVID-19病毒。恶劣的天气，贸易战，汽车排放测试的改变以及莱茵河的水位低：自2017年以来，欧洲经济受到了一系列的打击，更不幸的是，财政部长或中央银行都已无法可施。去年欧元区国内生产总值仅增长1.2％。作为大型制造商的德国和意大利最容易受到美国与中国的贸易战的打击，在该地区的增长排名中跌至最低。现在，COVID-19正在欧洲各地蔓延。去年年底，德国和意大利的增长率已经为零，因此冠状病毒对企业的影响将无助于他们的发展前景。德国和意大利可能陷入衰退。法国经济和财政部长布鲁诺·勒梅雷（Bruno Le Maire）周一承认，鉴于该病毒在世界的传播，COVID-19冠状病毒爆发对该国的国内生产总值（GDP）的影响可能大于预期。根据经合组织的数据，旅游业占法国GDP的7％，葡萄牙和西班牙约占12％。
由于COVID-19仍在全球蔓延，而美国正处于大规模蔓延的边缘，病毒不知何时才能得到遏制，因此全球经济很有可能会陷入衰退。 尽管美国股市指数近两个星期从历史最高点跌至上周五的低点平均下跌了约15％，但看起来这个修正幅度并不足够。 美国股市跌入熊市的几率很高。 发生这种情况时，股市可能会从高点下跌30％至50％。 在2000年和2008年熊市期间，标准普尔500指数分别下跌了50％和57％。这次COVID-19病毒的负面影响并不亚于2000年的科技股泡沫及2008年的次贷危机。
在今天道琼斯指数收盘下跌了969点后，股票指数期货在盘后交易中再次下跌：
No comments:
Post a Comment