Conditions Ripe For Market Bounce But May Not Materialize市场反弹的条件成熟但未必会实现

The Fed announced a bold new initiative in an effort to calm market tumult amid the coronavirus meltdown. In all, the new moves pump in up to $1.5 trillion into the financial system in an effort to combat potential freezes brought on by the coronavirus. This was the second day in a row and the third time this week the Fed has stepped in.  This Fed news drove the market up 6% from the low of morning, however it came back down and closed at low of day. The Dow made history again by dropping the most points in single day and the second biggest single day percentage loss of 10% after 1987's 22%.  All major US indexes have entered bear market as the Dow, S&P500 and Nasdaq composite have dropped 28%,27% and 27% respectively from all time highs.

Analysts feel that only Fed's monetary policy is not good enough to support the market, fiscal policy by the administration and congress is also needed. Treasury Secretary and House Speaker have been active negotiating a deal today (The latest is that a deal has been made and will be vote on tomorrow). Senate Majority Leader has cancelled next week's recess to work on fiscal policy is also a good sign .  Fed next Wednesday is expected to lower discount rate to 0.  By continue injecting money into the financial system is actually QE4.  Also there are speculation that they may consider buying equity ETFs. If this happens, stock market should rally.  By looking at the terrifying COVID-19 virus map of the United States, major outbreak is definitely coming soon and the trend of the US stock market will still be down. Hopefully, with actions from the Fed and Congress , in addition to the extreme pessimism and oversold conditions, the market is still likely to bounce near term.

Today's market extremes: 94.2% stock decline Vs 4.9% advance, stock making new low today is 95.7% Vs  only 4.3% making new high, 95.7% stocks are below their 50 day moving average and only 4.3% above 50 day moving average, 92% stocks are below their 200 day moving average and only 7.5% are above. These conditions are indicative of market is extremely oversold.

CNN Fear and Greed indicator is at extreme level  2. It can't go any lower. It is the most fear level in the past few years.

Volatility index VIX is the highest in the last 10 years.

Gold and Bitcoin are surprisingly down big today. This look like some funds are hit hard by margin call, and are selling everything to raise cash.

Dow Jones Industrial dropped 8368 points -28% from historical high.

S&P 500  dropped 914 points -27% from historical high.

Nasdaq Composite  dropped 2637 points -27% from historical high.

 

The following is the horrifying COVID-19 map of the United States published by New York Time.
Virus has invaded all the states except 4. This situation is not good. The continued spread of the virus is unavoidable. This means both the economy and stock market are going to hit hard.

美联储宣布了一项大胆的新举措，旨在缓解冠状病毒崩溃期间的市场动荡。总体而言，新举措向金融体系注入了高达1.5万亿美元的资金，以应对冠状病毒带来的潜在资金冻结。这是美联储连续两天入市，这是本周第三次介入。这一美联储的消息推动市场从早晨的低点上涨了6％，但随后回落并在低点收盘。道琼斯指数再创下历史，单日下跌点数最大，单日跌幅为第二大，仅次于1987年的22％。美国三大主要指数均进入熊市，道琼斯指数，S＆P500和纳斯达克综合指数分别从历史高点下跌了28％，27％和27％。

分析人士认为，仅美联储的货币政策不足以支撑市场，还需要政府和国会的财政政策。财政部长和众议院议长今天一直在积极谈判救市协议(（最新消息是已经达成协议，明天将进行表决）。参议院多数党领袖取消了下周的休会，以致力于财政政策，这也是一个好兆头。预计下周三美联储会将贴现率降低至0。通过继续向金融系统注资实际上是实行量化宽松4 （QE4）。也有人猜测他们可能会考虑购买股票ETF。如果发生这种情况，股市应该会反弹。通过查看美国令人恐惧的COVID-19病毒图，可以肯定的是，美国即将爆发重大疫情，而且美国股市的趋势会继续走跌。但愿在美联储和国会行动的帮助下，加上极端悲观和超卖的状况，市场仍有望在短期内反弹。

今天市场的极端情况：下跌股票94.2％，而上涨股票4.9％，今天创造新低的股票为95.7％，相比之下，只有4.3％股票创造新高，95.7％的股票低于50天移动平均线，而只有4.3％高于50天移动平均线，92.5％的股票低于200天移动平均线，而仅有7.5％的股票高于。 这些情况显示市场极度超卖。

CNN恐惧和贪婪指标为极度恐惧的2分水平。已经跌无跌。是几年来的最恐惧水平。

波动率指数VIX为过去十年中最高，最恐慌水平。

黄金和比特币今天意外地下跌了很多。 看起来有些基金受到追加保证金的打击，正在卖出一切资产来筹集现金。

道指从历史高位下跌8368点，-28%。

表普500从历史高位下跌914点，-27%。

纳斯达克指数从历史高位下跌26374点，-27%。

以下是《纽约时报》发布的恐怖的美国COVID-19地图。病毒已入侵除4个州以外的所有州。这种情况不好。病毒传播继续扩大难以避免。 这意味着经济和股市都将继续会受到打击。