Since February 19's historical high of 3393 to 2020 to today's 2305 , the US bench mark index S&P500 has dropped 32%. This all happened within a month, the sharpest drop in history in this short period of time. As the COVID-19 virus is rampaging around the world, making havoc in Europe and Iran now and is just starting to explode in the United States, when will it be contained and when will the stock market fall stop? I think when the confirmed infection cases begin to drop then we may be near the end of the stock fall. It looks like it is going to be at least a month from now before that will happen. Meanwhile we can analyze by using technical levels to project a reasonable stopping point for the falling market.
Historic support levels are the most common way to find a stopping point. The following is a monthly chart of the S&P 500. The blue horizontal lines are historic support levels. They are 2346, 2134, 1810 and 1576 respectively. These levels represent -31%,-37%,-47% and-54%from historic high level respectively. Since we are already at 2305, so the supports below are 2134, 1810 and 1576.
Another technical way to find support levels is by drawing Fibonacci retracement lines. In the following monthly chart of the S&P 500, the blue horizontal lines are Fibonacci retracement or support levels. By dividing the total move from the last bull market low at 666 to historical high 3393, we get Fibonacci retracement levels at 2351, 2030 and 1708, they represent retracement of 38%, 50% and 62% respectively. Since we are at 2305, the supports below are 2351, 2030 and 1708.
Now with both the historic and Fibonacci supports available , how do we figure out a reasonable bottom of this new bear market? For this, we need to look back to the last 2 bear markets. The 2000 to 2002 Tech Bubble bear market lasted 28 months and was down 51%. The subprime mortgage bear market ran from 2007 to 2009, lasted 27 moth and a drop of 59%. Since the present COVID-19 virus has not yet contained and lowering interest rate and injecting liquidity provide only temporary help but not a cure, coupled with the fear of the virus spreading and locking up cities, the economy died suddenly, I would think this new bear market should be worse than the previous 2. Since the worse of the last 2 bear market was down 59%, so it is reasonable to assume that this new bear market would drop more. With the above listed support levels, 1576 is the lowest support level and it's 54% drop from the top. The 1576 level should be strong support, since this vicinity was the top of the previous bear market. Even though the projected 54% drop is less than 59%, but is a very reasonable estimate.
Personally, I think we would be lucky if the market bottoms at down 54% if not more.
今日股市表现：资料源自Finviz.com
自2020年2月19日的历史高点3393至至今天的2305，美国基准指数S＆P500已下跌了32％。这一切都在一个月之内发生，这是这段短时间内历史上最大的跌幅。随着COVID-19病毒在全球范围内蔓延，现在正在欧洲和伊朗造成严重破坏，并且在美国才开始爆发，何时将其遏制，何时停止股市下跌？我认为，当美国确诊的感染病例开始下降时，我们可能会接近股市下降的尽头。看来距离现在至少还有一个月的时间。另外，我们可以通过使用技术水平进行分析来为下降的市场预测一个合理的止跌点。
历史支持水平是找到止跌点的最常见方法。以下是标准普尔500指数的月线图表。蓝色的平行线是历史支撑位。它们分别是2346、2134、1810和1576。这些水平分别比历史最高水平低出-31％，-37％，-47％和-54％。由于我们已经在2305，因此下面的支撑位是2134、1810和1576。
查找支撑位的另一种技术方法是绘制斐波那契回撤线。在下面的标普500月线图中，蓝色平行线是斐波纳契回撤位或支撑位。通过将最上一次牛市低点666到历史高点3393的总波动分割，我们得到的斐波纳契水平分别为2351、2030和1708，它们分别代表38％，50％和62％的涨幅回撤位。由于我们位于2305水平，因此下面的支撑位为2351、2030和1708。
现在，在既有历史支撑又有斐波那契支撑的情况下，我们如何确定这个新熊市的合理底部？为此，我们需要回顾最近的两个熊市。 2000年至2002年的T科技股泡沫熊市持续了28个月，下降了51％。次贷熊市从2007年持续到2009年，历时27天，下降了59％。由于当前的COVID-19病毒尚未被遏制，降低利率和注入流动性又只能提供暂时的帮助，而不能提供治愈的方法，加上因担忧病毒扩散而封城导致经济顿时死亡，我认为这个新的熊市应该比之前的2个熊市更糟糕。上两次熊市下跌最多是59％，因此可以合理地假设这个新的熊市将下跌更多。在上面列出的支撑位中，最低支撑位为1576，为从顶部下降54％。 1576年的水平应该是很强劲的支撑，因为该区域是先前两个熊市的顶部。尽管下这次熊市估计会跌54% 没有59% 多，但却是个非常合理的估计。就个人而言，我认为如果市场跌54％见底而不跌得更多，我们应该感到庆幸。
No comments:
Post a Comment