Friday’s Dow gain was the largest ever on a points basis, much as Thursday, Monday and Wednesday, respectively, had delivered the blue-chip index’s largest, second largest and third largest one-day point declines Friday’s gains followed a week of unrivaled volatility across markets that elicited numerous references to the financial crisis 12 years ago and the 1987 crash, except in some ways this crisis has felt more intense and unsettling to market participants. ---Market Watch
Not The Time To Buy Dips
Analytics firm Oxford Economics discouraged dip buyers, noting in a report that companies’ price-to-earnings ratios remain elevated and corporations may eventually find it difficult to service their debt at a time when leverage is near all-time highs. The firm urged investors to trim exposure to a broad variety of asset classes, including European stocks and the local currency debt of emerging markets. They are also warning investors to brace for more alarming headlines concerning the virus’ spread in the United States. “In the foreseeable future, and with a vaccine for the virus still nowhere in sight, it is reasonable to assume that Western containment strategies are unlikely to succeed and the peak in the incidence is at least some weeks, if not months, away,” the firm said. ---Reuters
Steven Mnuchin Promises More Liquidity And Keep Markets Open
"We intend to keep the markets open - that's a sign of confidence for people," Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told CNBC, adding that he's in "constant conversations" with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. "There will be liquidity available - whatever we need to do, whatever the Fed needs to do, whatever Congress needs to do, we will provide liquidity. There will be a massive amount of liquidity." ---Seeking Alpha
Economic Recession Likely
JPMorgan Chase said Thursday that it expected the U.S. economy to contract in the first two quarters of the year, which would meet a common definition of a recession. A survey of prominent academic economists, also released Thursday, found that a majority thought the outbreak was likely to cause a “major recession.”---New York Times
The economy in 2020 faces a number of the same issues as the last two recessions in 1980 and 2008.To be sure, there is growing uncertainty (and in some cases panic) surrounding the coronavirus. And there is also confusion and fallout following the federal and state governments imposing widespread restrictions on all types of domestic and foreign travel, work-life, as well as social and business gatherings, events and conferences. The coronavirus is also a global crisis, impacting business activity in a number of major trading partners while also disrupting global supply chains. On top of all of that there is sharp drop in the equity markets that has wiped out over $7 trillion in household wealth in a span of a month or more, which will weigh heavily on consumer confidence. Given the speed and breadth of events investors should brace for a decline in economic activity that’s more than twice consensus estimates, with company sales and profits declines that prove to far larger than what equity analysts currently expect.---Joseph Carson, Former Director of Global Economic Research, Alliance Bernstein
Coronavirus Panic Causes Chaos In Liquidity
The coronavirus panic is jolting stock markets, with steep drops in major indexes grabbing the public’s attention. But behind the scenes, there is less understood and potentially more worrying evidence that stress is building to dangerous levels in crucial arteries of the financial system. Investors and regulators have been alarmed, in particular, by liquidity problems in the $17 trillion U.S. Treasuries market.Typically, yields move a few basis points a day. Now, large and unusually quick swings in yields are making it hard for investors to execute orders. Traders said dealers on Wednesday and Thursday significantly widened the spread in price at which they were willing to buy and sell Treasury bonds - a sign of reduced liquidity. A measure of the health of the banking system is flashing yellow. The Libor-OIS spread USDL-O0X3=R, which indicates the risk banks are attaching to lending money to one another, has jumped. The spread is now 76 basis points, up from about 13 basis point on Feb. 21, before the coronavirus crunch began in the West. In 2008, it peaked at around 365 basis points.Several companies are drawing down on their credit lines with banks or increasing the size of their facilities to ensure they have liquidity when they need it. Bankers said companies fear lenders may not fund agreed credit lines should the market turmoil intensify. An official at a major central bank said the situation is “pretty bad, as all stars are aligned in a negative way.””Cracks will start to emerge soon,” the official said, “but whether they will develop into something systemic is still hard to say.” ---Reuters
Safe Haven Asset Prices Stretched
A rush to safety amid a massive drop in stocks has stretched prices for haven assets, leaving investors fewer places to hide in the wake of a freshly-minted bear market.Treasury yields stand near record lows, reflecting investors’ thirst for U.S. government bonds in the wake of a stock decline that has seen the S&P 500 give up more than 20% from its record high. The Japanese yen and Swiss franc have both touched multi-year highs against the dollar in recent days, while gold prices hit a seven-year peak earlier this month. That avalanche of buying has skewed the normal trading patterns of many haven assets, leaving investors vulnerable to unexpected price swings and periods of illiquidity, adding an extra dimension of risk to a market already fraught with pitfalls. ---Reuters
Big Drop In Oil Demand Expected
Goldman Sachs, which runs one of the largest commodity trading business in Wall Street, is now forecasting that oil demand will contract by more than 4 million barrels a day every month from February to April. Other investors see much larger demand drops in the short term. Andurand estimates that demand could easily drop by 10 million barrels a day in this quarter and even beyond. “We are going to see a dramatic decline in oil demand,” said Giovanni Serio, chief economist at Vitol Group, the world’s largest independent oil trader. “It’s a sudden shock to demand.” ---Bloomberg
股市有史以来最动荡的一周
周五的道琼斯指数涨幅是有史以来最大的，而 周四，周一和周三，蓝筹股指数则创下了最大，第二大和第三大单日跌幅，周五的涨幅是一周以来无与伦比的波动性所致。市场在12年前和1987年的金融危机被无数次提及与比较，但在某些方面，这次危机使市场参与者感到更加紧张和不安。 ---Market Watch
还不是时候买入
分析公司牛津经济研究院（Oxford Economics）劝阻逢低买入者不要买。它在一份报告中指出，公司的市盈率仍然很高，并且在杠杆率接近历史最高水平的时候，公司最终可能会难以偿还债务。 该公司敦促投资者减少对多种资产类别的投资，包括欧洲股票和新兴市场的本币债务。 他们还警告投资者，要为有关该病毒在美国传播的更多令人震惊的头条做好准备。 “在可预见的将来，由于仍然没有一种针对这种病毒的疫苗，可以合理地假设西方的遏制策略不太可能成功，并且发病率的高峰期至少要数周，甚至数月之遥。” 该公司说。---路透社
史蒂芬·姆努钦（Steven Mnuchin）承诺增加流动性并保持市场开放
财政部长史蒂芬·姆努钦（Steven Mnuchin）告诉CNBC，“我们打算保持市场开放-这是对人民充满信心的标志。”他补充说，他正在与美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）进行“持续对话”。 “将有流动性-我们需要做的一切，美联储需要做的一切，国会需要做的任何事情，我们都将提供流动性。将有大量的流动性。” ---Seeking Alpha
经济进入衰退可能性大
摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）周四表示，预计美国经济将在今年前两个季度收缩，这将符合衰退的一般定义。周四发布的一项对著名学术经济学家的调查发现，大多数人认为疫情很可能造成“重大衰退”。---《纽约时报》
2020年的经济面临着与1980年和2008年的前两次衰退相同的问题，可以肯定的是，冠状病毒周围的不确定性越来越大（在某些情况下甚至是恐慌）。在联邦和州政府对各种类型的国内和国外旅行，工作生活以及社交和商务聚会，活动和会议施加广泛的限制之后，也存在混乱和后果。冠状病毒也是全球性危机，影响了许多主要贸易伙伴的商业活动，同时也扰乱了全球供应链。最重要的是，股票市场急剧下跌，在仅多与一个月的时间里，家庭财富蒸发了超过7万亿美元，这将严重影响消费者的信心。鉴于事件的速度和广度，投资者应为经济活动的下降做好准备，这将是市场普遍预期的两倍以上，而公司的销售和利润下降事实证明远超出股票分析师目前的预期。---伯恩斯坦联盟前全球经济研究总监约瑟夫·卡森
冠状病毒恐慌导致流动性混乱
冠状病毒的恐慌正在震撼股市，主要指数的暴跌引起了公众的注意。但是在幕后，鲜有被理解和可能令人担忧的证据表明，压力在金融体系的关键动脉中正在积压至危险水平。投资者和监管机构尤其对规模达17万亿美元的美国国债市场的流动性问题感到震惊，通常情况下，收益率每天波动几个基点。现在，收益率出现大幅度且异常快速的波动，这使得投资者难以执行交易订单。交易商称，交易商周三和周四大幅扩大了他们愿意买卖国债的价差，这表明流动性减少。衡量银行系统健康状况的指标闪现黄色。 Libor-OIS的利差USDL-O0X3 = R（这表明银行彼此之间相互借贷的风险）已经上升。现在的价差为76个基点，高于2月21日西方开始冠状病毒紧缩之前的13个基点。在2008年，它达到了约365个基点的峰值。一些公司正在增加提取与银行的信贷额度，或者增加其信贷规模，以确保在需要时拥有流动性。银行家们表示，公司担心，如果市场动荡加剧，贷款人可能不会为商定的信贷额度提供资金。一家主要中央银行的官员表示，情况“非常糟糕，因为所有一切都处于负面状态。”该官员表示，裂缝很快就会开始出现，但它们是否会发展为系统性的现象仍然存在很难说。” ---路透社
避风港资产价格上涨过度
在股票大幅下跌的情况下，人们急于寻求安全保障，这使得避险资产的价格上涨厉害，在刚出现的熊市里，投资者的藏身之地越来越少。美国国债收益率接近历史低位，反映出投资者对美国国债的渴望。在股市下跌之后，标普500指数从纪录高位下跌了20％以上。日元和瑞士法郎近日均创下了多年高点，而金价本月初创下了七年高点。大量购买行为扭曲了许多避险资产的正常交易模式，使投资者容易受到意料之外的价格波动和非流动性时期的影响，给已经充满陷阱的市场增加了额外的风险。 ---路透社
预期石油需求将大幅下降
高盛（Goldman Sachs）是华尔街最大的商品交易公司之一，目前预测是从2月至4月，石油需求每天将收缩超过400万桶。 其他投资者在短期内看到更大的需求下降。 安杜兰德（Andurand）估计，本季度甚至以后，每天的需求量很容易会下降1000万桶。 全球最大的独立石油交易商维多集团（Vitol Group）首席经济学家乔凡尼·塞里奥（Giovanni Serio）说：“石油需求将急剧下降。” “需求会突然受到冲击。” ---彭博
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