As the US stock market bounced strongly by 1167 Dow point from yesterday's over 2000 Dow point drop and the market may as well go up further due to today's closing at the high momentum. However, the bounce is only a bounce not the bottom. Major market indexes will likely turn down again when the bounce is over. The main reason for today's bounce is the hope of the Trump administration may come up with a fiscal policy to stimulate the economy. However the quickly worsening COVID-19 situation will likely startle people and ruin the party soon. So beware.
Confirmed COVID-19 virus cases rises to 971 today in the US, 29 deaths. It has spread to 36 states. 16 US states have declared states of emergency in response to the novel coronavirus outbreak, so far. They are: New Jersey ,Maryland, California, Florida , Washington ,Oregon, Hawaii, illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, New York, Noth Carolina, Ohio ,Utah,Rhode Island and Massachusetts.
US COVID1-19 confirmed case is destine to explode in the days ahead as more people are tested. It is reasonable to assume the US spread of the COVID-19 virus will likely be similar to the situation in Europe. In Europe confirmed cases exploded from a few to thousands in a couple of weeks in counties over there . I don't know about other places, but in the nation's 2nd most infected California , people still live their daily life as usual and don't see the seriousness of the matter. Local governments are still saying that the chance of getting the virus is very small. The Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport in Atlanta has admitted that neither its own officials, nor the Department of Homeland Security are screening travellers arriving from Italy or South Korea, two countries where the coronavirus has hit the hardest outside of China. The explanation is thatt hose countries are doing exit screenings. I am seeing a disaster coming as people are not ready to cope with the virus.
CDC says only 5,000 tests have been conducted in US through Monday, this is much less than tests done in a day in other countries such as Korea and Italy. The delay of the last couple weeks in testing people has allowed time for the virus to spread further already. US CDC Chief said "the US is beyond virus containment in some areas".
The projected bounce target for the S&P 500 is the 2985 to 3051 area. 2985 is the 38% Fibonacci bounce level and 3051 is 200 day moving average level.
在美国股市昨天跌逾2000道琼斯点数后,今天则强劲反弹1167点,并且由于今天的高收势头,市场很可能有进一步的上涨。 但是,反弹只是反弹,而不是真正的底部。 反弹结束后,主要市场指数可能会再次下跌。 今天反弹的主要原因是希望特朗普政府可能提出一项刺激经济的财政政策。 但是,在美国急速恶化的COVID-19局势将会很令人震惊而带来阴霾。 所以要当心。
今天在美国,已确认的COVID-19病毒病例上升至971,死亡人数29。病毒已经扩散到36个州。 到目前为止,美国有16个州已宣布新冠状病毒为紧急状态。 它们是:新泽西州,马里兰州,加利福尼亚州,佛罗里达州,华盛顿州,俄勒冈州,夏威夷州,伊利诺伊州,印第安纳州,肯塔基州,纽约州,北卡罗来纳州,俄亥俄州,犹他州, 罗德岛和马萨诸塞州。
随着更多人受到测试,美国COVID1-19确诊病例在未来几天内有可能会暴涨。 可以合理地假设COVID-19病毒在美国的传播将可能与欧洲的情况类似。在欧洲,那里的国家确诊病例在两个星期内从几例激增到成千上万例。在加州,第二最多确诊病例的州,民众还是如常生活并没有觉得事情的严重性。本地政府还是说染上病毒的机会很小而导致居民的警觉性减小。亚特兰大的哈茨菲尔德-杰克逊亚特兰大国际机场已经承认,其本地官员和国土安全部都没有筛选来自意大利或韩国的旅客,这两个国家的冠状病毒在中国境外遭受了最严重的打击。 原因是该等国家已做了出口检查。 我看到灾难即将来临,因为人们还没有应对病毒准备。
疾病预防控制中心说,到周一为止,在美国仅进行了5,000次测试,这比在韩国和意大利等其他国家一天进行的测试要少得多。 最近两周因测试的延误已经使病毒有时间进一步传播。 美国疾病预防控制中心负责人说:“美国在某些地区已经无法控制病毒。”
标普500的反弹目标是2985至3051。 2985是38%斐波纳契反弹水平,而3051则是200天移动平均水平。
This blog follows the US stock market daily. Free market news, market comments, stock charts, stock and options buy/sell suggestions are provided throughout the day.
Tuesday, March 10, 2020
A Ticking Time Bomb 定时炸弹已开始计时
Contact Email: tradeideablog@gmail.com
U.C. Berkeley graduated, former electronic/computer engineer turned investment advisor / analyst. In the market 42 years with focus in market timing, learned from experience to trust charts,combine with trend, valuation, news and investors sentiment in making trading decisions,, knowing anything can happen to the market so very flexible to trade both sides of the market. 1992 CNBC/USA Today Investment Challenge professional options division champ with 3 month return of 1125%. In real life trading accomplished 9600% return by trading TZA options in the course of 3 months, doubled account value in 3 months by trading 3X ETFs. Now retired and enjoy trading stock and options daily. On going partnership with Sing Tao Daily and Sing Tao Radios in offering advanced stock and options trading classes semi-annually.
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伯克利加州大学毕业,前电子/计算机工程师转为财务顾问/股市分析师。 在市场42年,专注于参与市场时机。从经验中学到信任图表,结合趋势、估值、新闻和投资者情绪做出交易决策。知道任何事情都可能发生在市场上,因此非常灵活地参与买涨及做空,参与市场的两个方向。 1992年CNBC /今日美国日报投资挑战赛专业期权组冠军,3个月回报率为1125%。 在现实生活中,通过在3个月内交易TZA期权获得9600%的回报,通过交易3X ETF在3个月内使账户价值翻倍。 现在退休,享受每日交易股票和期权。 与星岛日报和星岛电台合作,每半年提供一次深入的股票和期权交易课程。
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