Country/Region Confirmed Cases Confirmed Cases Increase %
3/6 Morning 3/7 Morning
World 100001 105360 5.4%
China 80555 80651 0.1%
South Korea 6593 7041 6.8%
Iran 4747 5823 22.7%
Italy 3658 5883 61.2%
Germany 534 795 48.9%
France 423 716 69.3%
Spain 296 500 68.9%
Japan 350 461 31.7%
United States 234 361 54.3%
Confirmed cases in the 7 virus wild spreading countries including South Korea, Iran, Italy, Germany, France, Spain, Japan and United States have increased from 15434 to 21580 , an 39.8% increase overnight.
The number of known coronavirus cases in the United States continues to grow quickly. As of Saturday afternoon, at least 361 people with the Covid-19 illness have been treated in 28 states, according to a New York Times database, and at least 17 patients with the virus have died.
On the table at the top, majority of the world's economic powers are included. And in most of this countries, virus is spreading fast and no containment is in sight. It is especially concerning is the United States as it is just at the beginning of the virus spread. With no lock down of cities and close of borders just like in Europe, the wild spreading of the virus is guarantee in the coming days. The fast spreads among European countries are the mirror of the United States. What is worrisome is that people are just living their daily lives as usual and prepared, hence increase the chance of the virus spread.
Forget about what the economist and analysts are projecting on the economy, just use common sense, one can not make projections as the virus is still in rampant. As the world's most economic powerful countries are closing their factories, offices, schools, shops, airports, railways...etc, these will paralyse the countries and destroy the world economy to no end. The world's central banks knew this is coming as they coordinate to cut interest rate, injecting capitals and apply easy monetary policies. The Federal Reserve just cut interest rate last Wednesday by 0.5% and there is 100% chance it will cut interest rate again after their March 18 meeting. The expectation is that interest rate will be cut by 0.5% again. The Federal Reserve is in panic mode. But these actions are merely provide psychological boost and they only provide temporary comfort. They can't stop the pandemic from making havoc.
The volatility of the US stock market in the past couple of weeks is what I have never seen before in my 36 years watching the markets. For the last 13 days of trading, the Dow has experienced 6 days 1000 point fluctuation. The point move is never seen before. The Fear Gauge ETF VXX surged from around 14 to near 33, a 135% rise. From all time high to recent low the Dow dropped the most, about 16.5% while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite dropped 15.8% and 14.3% respectively. As the Dow and S&P 500 both below their 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages, the short, intermediate and long term trends are down. The Nasdaq Composite is on the verge of dropping below its 200 day moving average. US stock market is in correction and very likely to go into bear market.
How deep the stock market correction can go? If we use the monthly chart of the S&P 500, we see an eleven year bull market and has ended with the last two weeks of 14% drop. It is the quickest 10% drop in such a short period of time after the 1929 and 1987 crashes. Its trend is similar to 1929. By applying Fibonacci lines from the low to the high of this 11 year old bull market, I see a normal retracement of 38% from the top points to the 2400 level. A 50% retracement will put it to 2030 level. A 50% retracement is not uncommon. The S&P 500 tried to test its recent low of 2855 on Friday but fell short and rebounded from 2901. Technically, it looks like it may bounce more next week but is tentative and at the mercy of the COVID-19 news. I personally think that it will not even bounce further, if it does it will not higher than 3051. I think the 2855 low will be broken soon.
Now that the US stock market has rallied for the last 11 years, it is tired and over valued and deserve a good size pull back anyway. With the COVID-19 virus pandemic on going, global economic reccesion seem unavoidable, a much larger drop is in the horizon. What should we do? For nimble, aggressive and skillful traders, it is a paradise and is the time to make a lot of money by riding the market up and down using long and short and calls and puts. For long term investors, it is time to sell stocks on rallies. It is definitely not the time to buy the dips. Do you want to lose 30-50% first before your long term gain is the question. Good Luck, everybody!
一夜之间COVID-19病毒疯狂传播：
国家/地区 确认病例3/6上午 确认病例3/7上午 增加％
世界 100001 105360 5.4％
中国 80555 80651 0.1％
韩国 6593 7041 6.8％
伊朗 4747 5823 22.7％
意大利 3658 5883 61.2％
德国 534 795 48.9％
法国 423 716 69.3％
西班牙 296 500 68.9％
日本 350 461 31.7％
美国 234 361 54.3％
在包括韩国，伊朗，意大利，德国，法国，西班牙，日本和美国在内的七个病毒的广泛传播国家中，确诊病例已从15434增至21580，隔夜增长了39.8％。
在美国，已知的冠状病毒病例数迅速增长。根据《纽约时报》的数据库，截至周六下午，在28个州中，至少有361人染上Covid-19病毒并已经接受了治疗，至少有17名该病毒的患者死亡。
在最上面的表中，包括了世界上大多数经济实力最强的国家，而且在大多数此类国家中，病毒正在迅速传播，不知何时才能被遏制。尤其令人关注的是美国，因为它才刚刚开始传播病毒。像欧洲一样，由于没有做到城市的封锁和边界的关闭，在未来的日子里，病毒的疯狂传播将是肯定的。欧洲国家之间的快速传播是美国的镜子。令人担忧的是，人们只是像往常一样过日常生活，毫无防范，因此增加了病毒传播的机会。
不要相信经济学家和分析师们对经济的预测， 只要使用常识就知道因为该病毒仍在猖獗扩散中是无法做出预测的。由于世界上经济实力最强的国家正在关闭他们的工厂，办公室，学校，商店，机场，铁路等，这些做法将使这些国家陷于瘫痪，并无休止地破坏世界经济。世界各国央行都知道这一情况即将到来，所以它们协调降息，注入资本并实施宽松的货币政策。美联储上周三刚刚降息0.5％，在3月18日的会议之后，它有100％的机会会再次降息。预期利率将再次降低0.5％。美联储现正处于惊恐状态。但是这些动作仅仅是心理上的帮助，它们只是暂时行的安慰。他们无法阻止这种流行病毒的肆虐。
在过去的两周中，美国股市的动荡是我36年来观察市场所从未见过的。在过去的13天交易中，道琼斯指数经历了6天的1000点波动。点数的波动是前所未见的。恐惧指数 ETF VXX从14飙升至33附近，涨幅达135％。从历史最高点到最近低点，道指跌幅最大，约为16.5％，而标普500和纳斯达克综合指数则分别下跌15.8％和14.3％。随着道琼斯工业平均指数和标准普尔500均跌破20、50和200日均线，短期，中期和长期趋势都看跌。纳斯达克综合指数也即将跌破其200天移动平均线。美国股市正在调整中，并很有可能进入熊市。
股市下跌调整将会有多深？如果使用标准普尔500指数的月线图看，我们看到十一年的牛市在上两周下跌了14％。这是1929年和1987年股市崩盘以来短时间内跌幅最大最短时间的。其走势与1929年相似。在这11年牛市低点至高点加上斐波那契线，我看到从最高点下跌38％到2400水平是正常回撤。 50％的回撤将使S&P 500跌至2030水平而50％的回撤并不罕见。标普500试图在周五测试近期低点2855，但收市前从2901水平反弹。从技术上讲，下周它可能会反弹多些，但一切都系于COVID-19新闻好坏的影响。我个人认为，它不会进一步反弹，如果反弹，则不会高于3051水平。我认为2855低点将会很快被向下击穿。
既然美国股市在过去的11年中一直在上涨，它已经疲惫不堪并且价值过高，无论如何都应该有一个大的下跌调整。 随着COVID-19病毒大流行的进行中，全球经济衰退似乎是不可避免的，股市应该有更大的跌幅。 那么我们应该怎样做呢？ 对于敏捷，进取和技巧熟练的交易者而言，这是一个天堂，是时候通过使用多头和空头，看涨期权和看跌期权，左右开弓，利用市场的上下波动来获大利润的时候。 对于长期投资者而言，是时候逢高卖出股票了。 现在绝对不是逢低买入的时候。 您想先赔30-50％来换取长期收益吗，这是要问自己问题。 祝大家好运！
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