。A recession is widespread economic decline that lasts for at least six months. A depression is a more severe decline that lasts for several years. For example, a recession lasts for 18 months, while the most recent depression lasted for a decade. There have been 33 recessions since 1854. There's only been one depression since then, the Great Depression of 1929. It was actually a combination of the recession that lasted from August 1929 to March 1933, and the one from May 1937 to June 1938. In a recession, gross domestic product contracts for at least two quarters. A depression is an extended recession that has years, not quarters, of economic contraction. It's more severe than a recession. Unemployment reaches 25%, housing prices plummet 30%, and prices fall 10%. ---The Balance
。Goldman Sachs is forecasting a 24% decline in economic activity next quarter, compared to their previous forecast for a 5% decline. That's because US economic data (specifically manufacturing data) have already started to miss economist estimates, even before Americans started to stay home to avoid spreading the coronavirus. Their estimate, published Friday morning, is one of the most pessimistic on Wall Street. JP Morgan released estimates Wednesday that predicted a 14% contraction in second-quarter US growth. If Goldman's economists are right, that means the US is approaching the sharpest single-quarter decline in gross domestic product since the US started measuring GDP in its current form. The current record for the largest quarterly slowdown was in the first quarter of 1958, the bank says, when GDP declined 10%. --- Barron
In its latest repricing of the economy, the market sees the now-expected global recession caused by the coronavirus outbreak morphing into an economic depression unlike any the world has seen in generations. Deutsche Bank economists foresee a "severe global recession occurring in the first half of 2020 ... quarterly declines in GDP growth we anticipate substantially exceed anything previously recorded going back to at least World War II. "Bankers and traders are looking to sell everything that isn't nailed down to boost cash positions and hunker down for the worst. "What people are doing is looking at things that they can sell to raise cash, and that's part of the crisis market situation," Jim Caron, head of fixed income global macro strategies for Morgan Stanley Investment Management, told CNBC. "When these things happen, people sell what they can sell, not what they want to sell. "--- Axios
。Coronavirus threatens to stop the world from spinning on its axis .SurveyUSA's latest time-series tracking poll conducted 03/18/20 and 03/19/20 showed 9% of Working Americans (14 Million) So Far Have Been Laid Off As Result of Coronavirus; 1 in 4 Workers Have Had Their Hours Reduced; 2% Have Been Fired; 20% Have Postponed a Business Trip. --Mish Talk
。The economy needs to halt to protect lives and sustain the medical system. Planes have been grounded, conferences canceled, millions of Americans told not to leave their homes except to get groceries and other necessities. Because of the emergency measures now in place, businesses have had no choice but to let workers go. The list of employers laying off workers en masse includes cruise lines, airlines, hotels, restaurants,The economy needs to halt to protect lives and sustain the medical system. Planes have been grounded, conferences canceled, millions of Americans told not to leave their homes except to get groceries and other necessities. Because of the emergency measures now in place, businesses have had no choice but to let workers go. The list of employers laying off workers en masse includes cruise lines, airlines, hotels, restaurants, bars, cabinetmakers, linen companies, newspapers, bookstores, caterers, and festivals. State jobless filings are growing geometrically, a signal of how the national numbers will change when we have them. Last Monday, Colorado had 400 people apply for unemployment insurance. This Tuesday: 6,800. California has seen its daily filings jump from 2,000 to 80,000. Oregon went from 800 to 18,000. In Connecticut, nearly 2 percent of the state's workers declared that they were newly jobless on a single day. Many other states are reporting the same kinds of figures. ...The economy is not tipping into a jobs crisis. It is exploding into one. Given the trajectory of state reports, it is certain that the country will set a record for new jobless claims next week, not only in raw numbers but also in the share of workers laid off. The total is expected to be in the range of 1.5 million to 2.5 million, and to climb from there.
In the real economy, everything has halted, frozen in place. This is not a recession. It is an ice age.
---Annie Lowery, The Atlantic
基于从未见过的股市崩溃，城市被封锁而导致“经济突然死亡”以及无法控制的全球COVID-19蔓延，我看到萧条而不单是衰退。
衰退是指持续至少六个月的广泛的经济衰退。大萧条是持续数年的更为严重的经济下降。例如，衰退持续18个月，而最近一次衰退持续了10年。自1854年以来共发生了33次衰退。此后只有一次萧条，即1929年的大萧条。这实际上是从1929年8月至1933年3月持续的衰退，以及从1937年5月至1938年6月的一次衰退的组合。在经济衰退期间，国内生产总值至少收缩两个季度。萧条是长期衰退，经济衰退持续了数年而不是季度。这比衰退还要严重。失业率达到25％，房价暴跌30％，房价下跌10％。---The Balance
高盛（Goldman Sachs）预测下一季度经济活动将下降24％，而此前的预测为只下降5％。这是因为，这是在美国人开始留在家中以避免传播冠状病毒之前，美国的经济数据（特别是制造业数据）也已经开低于过经济学家的估计。他们的估计于周五早上发布，是华尔街最悲观的估计之一。摩根大通周三公布的估计数字预测，美国第二季度经济增长将收缩14％。如果高盛的经济学家是正确的话，这意味着自美国开始以当前形式衡量GDP以来，美国正在接近国内生产总值单季度的最大跌幅。该银行表示，目前最大的季度增速放缓记录是在1958年第一季度，当时GDP下降了10％。 ---Barron
在最新的经济重估中，市场看到，如今冠状病毒爆发正在演变成经济衰退，这与世代以来的世界不同。德意志银行的经济学家预计，“ 2020年上半年将发生严重的全球衰退……我们预计GDP的季度下降幅度将大大超过至少在第二次世界大战之前的记录。”银行家和交易商正在寻求出售所有没有被钉住的头寸以增加现金而作最坏的打算。摩根士丹利投资管理（Morgan Stanley Investment Management）全球固定收益策略负责人吉姆·卡伦（Jim Caron）表示：“人们正在做的事情就是看待可以出售的东西以筹集现金，这是危机市场形势的一部分。” “当这些事情发生时，人们卖出了他们可以出售的东西，而不是他们想要出售的东西。” --- Axios
。冠状病毒威胁世界自转。SurveyUSA最新的时间序列跟踪民意调查在03/18/20和03/19/20进行，结果表明，迄今为止，有9％的在职美国人（1400万）被暂时停职，四分之一的工人减少了工作时间； 2％已被解雇； 20％的人推迟了商务旅行。 -Mish Talk
。经济需要停止以保护生命和维持医疗系统。飞机停飞了，会议取消了，数百万的美国人被告知除了买杂货和其他必需品外不要离开家。由于目前已采取紧急措施，企业别无选择，只能让工人离开。大规模解雇工人的雇主名单包括邮轮，航空公司，酒店，饭店，酒吧，橱柜制造商，亚麻公司，报纸，书店，餐饮服务商和节日。国家失业申请呈几何级增长，这标志着当我们拥有国家失业申请时，国家数目将如何变化。上周一，科罗拉多州有400人申请失业保险。这个星期二：6,800。加利福尼亚的日申请量从2,000跃升至80,000。俄勒冈州从800上升到18,000。在康涅狄格州，将近2％的州工人宣布他们一天没有工作。许多其他州都报告了相同的数字。 ...经济并不是步入就业危机。它正在以爆炸式的进入。以现在国家报告的轨迹来看，可以肯定的是，下周美国将创下新的失业申请记录，不仅是原始数据，还包括下岗工人的比例。预计总数将在150万至250万之间，并从此攀升。
在实体经济中，一切都停滞不前，冻结在原地。这不是衰退。这是一个冰河时代。
--- Annie Lowery，The Atlantic
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