During after hour futures trading, Dow futures had been fluctuating between down near 300 points to up 550 points for hours but is now trading down over 800 points. Based on how the stock index futures trade, investors only cheered the ECB action briefly and then turn down again. Also even after Fed lower interest rate to near 0 and the Trump administration approving two economic relief packages, the stock market actually came down. So the jury has spoken, the worry of the economic sudden death caused by the raging Coved-19 spread overrides all the money the governments are expected to spend. So the stock will likely continue to go down tomorrow. I am listing the positives and negatives below for you to weigh on market direction:
Positives:
Technicals Indicate Possible Bounce
After breaking below its December 2019 low of 2346 earlier in the day, the S&P 500 recovered above it and formed a Double Bottom bullish formation. And major market indexes are oversold as they dropped 30% from their highs.
The White House Economic Relief Package
At this point, the White House has reportedly discussed bailouts for the shale industry, the airlines, cruise lines, Boeing and a non-specific bailout allotment worth hundreds of billions in the second economic relief package. So it should hardly come as a surprise that Larry Kudlow said Wednesday - that the White House might consider outright purchases of equities as part of its corporate bailout plan.---ZeroHedge
ECB Announced $815B To Purchase Securities
Futures swung higher after the ECB announced a new Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme that will deploy €750 billion ($819 billion) to purchase securities to help support the European economy. The central bank said purchases will be conducted until the end of 2020 and include a variety of assets including government debt.---CNBC
Doubleline's Jeff Gundlach Announced Closing All Shorts
“For the first time in years I am now not short any U.S. stocks. I covered my last three shorts today at 2:37 p.m EDT. The profits were just too great to not harvest, and the panic is palpable.”---Jeff Gundlach
Negatives:
United States New Confirmed Covid-19 cases Are Exploding
Confirmed: 8846 Deaths: 138
For smaller European countries such as Italy, Spain ，Germany, and France，their confirmed cases have risen to 35713, 14769,12327 and 9134 respectively. From the look of how fast the Covid-19 are spreading in Europe, confirmed cases in the much bigger United States can easily top 100000 in the near futuere.
New York City May Face Shutting Down
Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York provided new numbers on Wednesday that showed 2,382 people in the state had tested positive for the coronavirus, an increase of more than 800 since Tuesday. In New York City, 1,871 people had tested positive, compared with 814 on Tuesday. Mr. Cuomo attributed much of the jump to an increase in testing. Of the 14,597 people to be tested so far, nearly 5,000 were tested on Tuesday.---New York Times
Boing Is On Verge Of Collapse
Shares of Boeing Co. plunged Wednesday to a seven-year low, as the prospects of a taxpayer bailout of the aerospace giant failed to allay investor fears of potential liquidity issues, as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to cripple the aerospace industry. Analyst Robert Stallard at Vertical Research Partners suggested a government bailout would be far from a panacea for Boeing, as it would leave the company saddled with debt and subject to stringent regulatory oversight. ---MarketWatch
Q1 And Q2 GDP Are Expected To Contract Significantly
JPMorgan has slashed its forecast for real annualized GDP growth in Q1 to -4.0%, followed by an even weaker -14.0% in Q2, far, far worse than Goldman's -5%. However, just like Goldman, JPM too sees a V-shaped recovery in Q3, when it expects the economy to recover to 8.0% in Q3 followed by 4.0% growth in Q4. For the full year (Q4/Q4) JPM now look for growth of -1.5%, a number which will be more of a Great Depression-like -10% if the second half rebound does not materialize. ---ZeroHedge
在盘后的交易中，道琼斯指数期货在几小时内一直在下跌近300点至上升550点之间波动，但现在已下跌超过800点。根据股指期货的交易情况，投资者只是短暂地欢呼了欧洲央行的行动，然后再度下跌。 即使在美联储将利率降低至接近于零以及特朗普政府批准了两项经济救助方案之后，股市实际上还是下跌了。 陪审团已经定了案，担心由Coved-19的蔓延而造成的经济突然死亡的担忧压倒了各国政府预计将花费的数以千亿计的资金。所以明日市场再跌的机会大。
我在下面还是列出了正面和负面的信息以供权衡市场方向:
正面因素：
技术指标显示可能反弹
在今天早些时候跌破2019年12月低点2346之后，标普500反弹并收复了2346之上并形成双底看涨形态。另外，主要市场指数从高位下跌了30％，因此已经超卖。
白宫经济救助计划
据报道，目前白宫已经讨论了页岩气行业，航空公司，邮轮公司，波音公司的救助计划，以及第二批经济救济计划中价值数千亿美元的非特定救助计划。另外拉里·库德洛（Larry Kudlow）周三表示，白宫可能会购买股票作为其企业纾困计划的一部分。--- ZeroHedge
欧洲央行宣布购买$ 815B证券
欧洲央行宣布了一项新的大流行紧急购买计划，该计划将部署7500亿欧元（8190亿美元）来购买证券，以支持欧洲经济，期货因而上涨。欧洲中央银行表示，购买将持续到2020年底，其中包括包括政府债务在内的各种资产。
Doubleline的Jeff Gundlach宣布已平仓所有空头头寸
“这是多年来我第一次没有做空任何美国股票。今天在美国东部时间下午2:37，我整理了我的最后三个空头头寸。利润实在太大以至于不得不获利，而且恐慌也有点过于明显。”---Jeff Gundlach
负面因素：
美国新确诊的Covid-19病例正在急速上升
已确认：8846 死亡：138
对于较小的欧洲国家，例如意大利，西班牙，德国和法国，其确诊病例分别上升到35713、14769、12327和9134。从Covid-19在欧洲的传播速度来看，大得多美国的确诊病例很容易就可达到10万例。
纽约市可能面临关闭
纽约州州长安德鲁·库莫（Andrew M. Cuomo）周三提供了新数据，显示该州有2,382人的冠状病毒检测呈阳性，自周二以来增加了800多人。在纽约市，有1,871人测试呈阳性，从周二新增814人。 Cuomo先生将大部分的上涨归因于测试的增加。到目前为止，在将接受测试的14597人中，有将近5,000人在星期二接受了测试。---《纽约时报》
波音濒临崩溃
波音公司的股票周三跌至七年低点，用纳税人的钱对航空航天巨人的救助前景并未能缓解投资者对潜在流动性问题的担忧，因为COVID-19大流行继续削弱了航空航天业。 Vertical Research Partners的分析师罗伯特·斯特拉德（Robert Stallard）表示，政府的救助远非波音的灵丹妙药，因为这将使该公司背负债务，并受到严格的监管监督。 ---MarketWatch
预计第一季度和第二季度国内生产总值将大幅收缩
摩根大通（JPMorgan）将第一季度实际年度GDP增长率下调至-4.0％，其后的第二季度是 甚至更弱的-14.0％，大大低于高盛的-5％。但是，就像高盛一样，摩根大通也预计第三季度经济将呈V型复苏，它预计第三季度经济将恢复8.0％，随后第四季度将增长4.0％。对于全年（第四季度/第四季度），摩根大通现在希望为-1.5％，如果下半年反弹没有实现，GDP将更像是大萧条般的-10％。 ---ZeroHedge
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