1. Technically speaking, the low after a sharp drop always get retested after a bounce. V shape bottom is very rare.
2. The projected S&P 500 bounce resistance levels are 2551(38%) and 2662(50%). Today, it has reached 2630 at the close and resistance is only 38 points away. The Dow and Nasdaq Composite are already at their 20 day moving average resistances. The bounce is likely over or close to over.
3. The COVID-19 confirmed cases are exploding in the United States and no ending is in sight. Much worse situation is to come before getting better. As of 3:45 PM West Coast Time US has surpassed China as the confirm COVID-19 cases jumped to 81791 with 1205 deaths. It has become number 1 country with the most confirmed cases. In another couple days, it will likely break above the 100000 confirmed case level!
4. The COVID-19 led impact to the economy is commonly agree that it is worse than the 2000 Tech bubble and the 2008 subprime crisis, it is not going to end quickly. The 2000 and 2008 bear markets took the S&P 500 down 51% and 58% respectively. The two bear market lasted over 2 years. After the recent 3 day bounce, the S&P 500 is now only down 22.5%, it is definitely not enough.
5. In the near future, the market is going to face more bad news on the economy, bad earning reports, corporate lowering projections and analysts downgrading stocks. These are going keep depressing stocks.
标普500指数在3月23日星期一跌至2191低位，然后连续3天强劲反弹。这只是一次熊市中的反弹而且即将结束，很快会重新测试2191的低点。原因如下：
1。从技术上讲，急剧下跌后的低点总是在反弹后会重新被测试。 V形底很罕见。
2。标普500反弹的阻力水平预计为2551 （38%）和2662（50%）。今天，它收市时已达到了2630，还有38点就到阻力。另外，道指和纳斯达克综合指数也已到达他们的20天均线阻力。市场反弹可能已经结束或接近结束。
3. COVID-19确诊病例在美国呈爆炸性增长，并且还没看到结束的时候。在好转之前情况会先变得更糟。截至美国西海岸时间下午3:45，美国已确认的COVID-19病例跃升至81791，死亡1205人，已超过中国成为确诊病例最多的国家。再过两天，它很可能就会突破10万例确诊病例！
4。COVID-19带来的经济冲击普遍认为比2000年的科技泡沫和2008年的次贷危机还要糟糕，而且不会很快结束。 2000年和2008年的熊市使标普500指数分别下跌51％和58％。这两次熊市都持续了2年多。在最近三天的反弹之后，标普500指数从历史高位跌至最低时下跌34%，反弹后现在仅下跌了22.5％，这绝对是跌未够的。
5。在不久的将来，更多的经济坏消息，糟糕的收益报告，公司下调预测以及分析师调低股票评级将继续打压股市。
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