Experts Short And To The Point Market Opinions 专家们一针见血的市场观点

Seeking Alpha posted an excellent article on market opinions from their pool of experts. The article's  title is  " Coronavirus Roundtable: Preparing For The Months Ahead".   The question to these experts is:What are you watching for as a tell that things are stabilizing (or not)? I have selectively edited these answers by grouping these opinions and present them under appropriate sections as follow. One can really learn a lot on how different expert interpret the stock market. Happy reading!

Watch For The Containment Of COVID-19

Ranjit Thomas, CFA, author of Stock Scanner: We need the number of affected people in the US to peak and then decline.

Mark Bern, CFA, author of Friedrich Global Research: We want to see a slowdown (rather than increase) in the number of new cases in the U.S. and Europe. We also want to see the price of oil to find a bottom and stabilize. Finally, we want to see announcements that schools will reopen and event schedules getting back on track. The reverse is happening right now.

Long Hill Road Capital, author of Bargain-Priced Compounders: I look at China where this all started. They seem to be gradually returning to normal. Unless something drastic changes, South Korea's new cases per day seems to have peaked in early March. Those were two of the earliest countries to get hit. As long as countries take the threat seriously and take appropriate measures to test as many people as possible and quarantine them, the problem seems to be contained before it improves. It only took South Korea 12 days to go from more than 50 new cases per day to peak new cases per day before new cases per day began to decline. On the other hand, Italy is a disaster. They've now locked down the entire country. It's critical they get that under control before their healthcare system gets over run. The fact that the U.S. has been so slow to even test for this is extremely regrettable to put it politely.

Laurentian Research, author of The Natural Resources Hub: When the financial media moves on to the next trouble and loses interest in coronavirus, the worst of the pandemic should be behind us. When coronavirus is under control in the U.S., the rest of the world is most likely in a recovery.

Bram de Haas, author of Special Situation Report: I'm watching the covid-19 developments minute to minute almost. Government reactions are very important. Currently so many countries are woefully unprepared that I don't see this stabilizing yet. When it looks like more governments are able to achieve South Korean or Singapore like results that's very important. Efficacy of Chloroquine and Remdesivir as well as production levels are something that could make a real difference in the medium term.

Tarun Chandra, CFA, author of Prudent Healthcare: A key statistic would be the peaking of new viral cases.

Watch For Stock Market Behaviors

Damon Verial, author of Exposing Earnings: Watch volatility: If it falls, we could be seeing the formation of a short-term bottom, in which case you should take profit on your short positions and wait for another re-entry point. The market is looking for a short-term bottom. We might be in a bear market, but dip buyers always create short-term bottoms.

Bret Jensen, author of The Biotech Forum: Some signs the virus is starting to be contained and a significant drop in the VIX.

Thomas Lott, author of Cash Flow Compounders: The VIX is an obvious one. When the market has popped 3-4% on many days recently, we advised that this mostly is a typical Bear Market rally. These tend to be quite strong, but are not a positive sign. When the VIX begins to subside, we probably will enter the Despair phase. Vol will deflate over several months as stocks drift slowly down. We also are looking for the so-called R-naught on coronavirus cases to fall well below 1.0 (meaning new infections are averaging less than one per every new case, hence the virus stops spreading).

Andres Cardenal, CFA, author of The Data-Driven Investor: The key factor to watch is the market behavior itself. I would like to see stock prices holding on well in spite of bad news. Watching conditions in the credit markets - credit spreads, access to liquidity, etc. - is also remarkably important.

D.M. Martins Research, author of Storm-Resistant Growth: Price action. To be clear, news regarding a potential slowdown in the spread of the virus or the successful implementation of initiatives to address the health crisis would be, fundamentally speaking, the most reliable signs of stabilization. But I believe that the markets will react in anticipation. A string of several positive days of returns in stocks, a pullback in volatility and a rise in treasury yields that suggests a bit more of a "risk on" attitude would be the very early signs of a potential recovery, in my view.

Chris Lau, author of DIY Investing: DIY subscribers are savvy in sharing technical charting, volatility, and the price of bond and gold. I am tracking consumer sentiment at a global level. For example, China is showing signs of returning back to normal and will be the first to recover. That will lead to the stability of other markets.

Watch For Corporate Earnings And Stock Valuations

The Macro Teller, author of Macro Trading Factory: It's funny that when 2020 started all we cared about was the Fed and monetary policy () whereas now, the Fed is almost meaningless. Sure, we expect rates to go down (a lot) and QE is already upon us (whether the Fed names it like this or not), but monetary policy has run out of bullets. Therefore, we're watching the virus numbers closely, assessing the damage we expect to see when companies start reporting (Q1 and Q2 are going to look real ugly) and try to put a number to the valuation of the market where we believe it will become attractive enough to start adding risk. We're not there yet!

Cory Cramer, author of The Cyclical Investor's Club: I really just watch valuations of individual stocks and at least demand a shallow recession level valuation for each purchase. Hopefully, I run out of cash before we hit the bottom whenever that happens to be. But if the last two recessions are any indicator, we have about two years until we find a bottom and/or a -50% drop for the S&P 500. If we go two years, or experience a -50% decline from the peak, we are probably close to a bottom.

Ruerd Heeg, author of Global Deep Value Stocks: I suppose it could be a vaccine. I do not expect a working vaccine before the second half of next year. But if you believe the coronavirus is just a trigger for a big downturn, then it is better to watch the stock market to bottom. After a 10-year run-up, that could take 3 years.

Watch For Treasury Yields

Victor Dergunov, author of Albright Investment Group: Interest rates are the most important thing to watch. Much of the correction is being driven by fear as interest rates go to record low levels. Certain sectors, such as banks, are trading horribly on the fear that interest rates will be zero for an extended period of time. When the 10-year yield is at 0.5%, it's saying that traders are pricing in recession conditions for much of the next decade. When yields start to bounce, it will be a sign that some risk appetite is coming back.

Watch For Monetary And Fiscal Policies
ADS Analytics, author of Systematic Income: We are looking for a "whatever it takes" message on both the fiscal and monetary front as well as a bend in the curve of new cases in the developed world. We are also waiting for signs of capitulation on risky assets. We are getting closer on all fronts with central bank action, fiscal support as well as lower new cases in China plus messy market dynamics.




Seeking Alpha发表了一编结合了他们专家团有关于市场观点的出色文章。 文章的标题是“冠状病毒圆桌会议：为未来几个月做准备”。对这些专家的问题是：您在看观察什么以判断事情正在稳定（或没有稳定）？我通过对这答案进行分组有选择地对其进行了编辑，并在下面进行了介绍。 人们真的可以从中学到很多关于不同专家如何解释股市的知识。 祝您阅读愉快！

留意COVID-19是否被遏制

CFA兰吉特·托马斯（Ranjit Thomas），《股票扫描仪》（Stock Scanner）的作者：我们需要看到美国受影响的人数达到顶峰然后再下降。

弗里德里希全球研究（Friedrich Global Research）的作者，马克·伯恩（Mark Bern）：我们希望看到美国和欧洲的新病例数量有所减少（而不是增加）。我们还希望看到油价找到底部并稳定下来。最后，我们希望看到有关学校将重新开放的公告，并且活动时间表也将恢复正常。相反的事情正在发生。

讨价还价复合商的作者Long Hill Road Capital：我看这一切的开始地中国。他们似乎正在逐渐恢复正常。除非发生重大变化，否则韩国每天的新病例似乎在3月初达到顶峰。那是最早受到打击的两个国家。只要各国认真对待这一威胁，并采取适当措施对尽可能多的人进行测试并隔离，问题似乎在改善之前就得到了遏制。从每天的50多个新病例到每天的新病例达到顶峰，韩国只用了12天的时间就开始减少新病例。另一方面，意大利是一场灾难。他们现在已经封锁了整个国家。至关重要的是，他们必须在医疗保健系统超支之前控制住这一状况。礼貌地说，美国对此的测试如此之慢，实在令人遗憾。

《自然资源中心》的作者Laurentian Research：当金融媒体陷入报导下一个麻烦并对冠状病毒失去兴趣时，最严重的流行病就应该过去了。在美国控制冠状病毒后，世界其他地方很可能正在恢复。

《特殊情况报告》的作者Bram de Haas：我几乎每分钟都在观看covid-19的发展。政府的反应非常重要。目前，如此之多的国家都没有做好充分的准备，以至于我看不到这种稳定状态。当看起来越来越多的政府能够取得像韩国这样的结果时，这是非常重要的。氯喹（Chloroquine）雷姆昔韦 （Remdesivir）的功效以及生产水平在中期可能会产生真正的变化。

Tarun Chandra，CFA，Prudent Healthcare的作者：一个关键的统计数据是新病毒病例是否达到高峰。


留意股市行为

Damon Verial，《敞口收益》的作者：留意波动指数，如果下跌，我们可能会看到短期底部的形成，在这种情况下，您应该平仓空头头寸获利，等待另一个重入点。市场正在寻找短期底部。尽管我们可能处于熊市中，但逢低买入者总是创造短期底部。

生物技术论坛的作者布雷特·詹森（Bret Jensen）：要留意显示该病毒已开始被遏制的迹象，并且VIX大幅下降。

现金流复合者的作者托马斯·洛特（Thomas Lott）：VIX很明显。当最近几天市场暴涨3-4％时，我们建议这主要是一次典型的熊市反弹。这些趋势往往很强，但不是看好的迹象。当VIX开始平息时，我们可能会进入最后“绝望”阶段。随着股票缓慢下跌，波动指数将在几个月内收缩。我们还希望将所谓的无冠状病毒病例的R值降至1.0以下（这意味着每例新病例平均新感染病例少于一例，该病毒会因而停止传播）。

CFA的安德烈斯·卡登纳尔（Andres Cardenal），《数据驱动的投资者》的作者：要关注的关键因素是市场行为本身。尽管有坏消息，我还是希望股价保持稳定。观察信贷市场的状况-信用利差，获得流动性等-也非常重要。

D.M. Martins Research，《抗风暴增长：价格行动》一书的作者。明确地说，从根本上说，有关病毒传播速度可能减慢或成功实施解决健康危机举措的消息，将是最可靠的稳定迹象。但是我相信市场会做出预期的反应。在我看来，一连串几天股市的上升，波动指数的回落和国债收益率的上升暗示着更多的“冒险”态度将是潜在复苏的早期迹象。

DIY投资的作者Chris Lau：DIY订户精于分享技术图表，波动指标以及债券和黄金的价格。 我正在追踪全球范围内的消费者情绪。 例如，中国正在显示恢复正常的迹象，并将成为第一个复苏的国家。 这将导致其他市场的稳定。


留意公司收益和股票估值

宏观贸易工厂的作者马克·泰勒（Macro Teller）：有趣的是，当2020年开始时，我们关心的只是美联储和货币政策，而现在，美联储几乎已毫无意义。当然，我们预计利率将会下降（很多）并且量化宽松已经在开始（无论美联储是否这样称呼），但是货币政策已经用完了。因此，我们正在密切关注病毒数量，评估我们期望在公司开始报告时所看到的损害（第一季度和第二季度看起来非常丑陋），并尝试将我们认为会出现的市场价值数据变得足够有吸引力以开始增加风险。但我们还没有达到这个阶段！

周期性投资者俱乐部（Citiical Investor's Club）的作者科里·克莱默（Cory Cramer）：我真的只是看个别股票的估值，至少要求每次购买都具有较低的衰退水平估值。希望在碰巧触底之前，我会用光现金投入。但是，如果最后两次衰退可以作为指标，那么我们距离标普500指数底部和/或-50％的下降还有大约两年的时间。如果我们走了两年，或者经历了从最高峰下跌-50％的情况，我们可能已经接近底部。

全球深价值股票的作者Ruerd Heeg：我想这疫苗很重要。我预计明年下半年之前不会有可用疫苗。但是，如果您认为冠状病毒只是大衰退的诱因，那么最好是观察股市的跌势。经过10年的的上升，可能需要3年调整。


留意国债收益率

Albright Investment Group的作者Victor Dergunov：利率是最重要的注意事项。随着利率跌至创纪录的低水平，多数调整是由恐惧所驱动。某些行业，例如银行，由于担心利率将在很长一段时间内为零而正在可怕地被抛售。当10年期国债收益率为0.5％时，就是说交易员在未来十年的大部分时间里都处于衰退条件下定价。当收益率开始反弹时，这表明一些风险偏好并正在恢复。


留意货币和财政政策

ADS Analytics，《系统性收入》的作者：我们正在寻找有关财政和货币政策方面的“尽一切能力”的信息，以及发达国家疫情的发展曲线有所下降。我们也在等待风险资产跌至尽头的迹象。中央银行的行动，财政支持，中国新案件的减少以及混乱的市场动态，使我们在各个方面都慢慢变好。