Thursday, May 21, 2020

It Is The Tech Stocks We Should Worry About 我们应该担心的是科技股

Major US stock indexes opened up slightly and selling immediately rushed in taking the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq down 0.46%, 0.77% and 0.75% respectively now. More than expected jobless claims and increasing tension between US and China are two of the reasons for the sell off. However, I believe technical condition is the main reason.  In the past 1 month the S&P 500 has been trying to break above its 3000 level 3 times and failed. This makes this level even harder to break and attracts selling. In addition, the 5 stocks (AAPL, AMZN, FB, GOOD, MSFT) that make up over 20% of the S&P 500 capitalization have now moving up too much too fast to an unsustainable levels. AAPL , MSFT  and Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ have risen 7 out of the last 10 weeks and are very close to their all time highs. Their nearly vertical V shape reversal rallies defy gravity and reality and are not likely to be sustainable. They all have the potential of forming bearish Double Top patterns and downside correction looks inevitable.  Both AMZN and FB made new highs today and are reversing down. They may be fully priced. GOOG is the lagger of the 5 stocks and is having hard time to surpass its recent high. Then comes Nvidea's (NVDA) earning report after market close today, everybody expecting a good report but a stock is hard to go any where when everybody has bought in  and it makes all time high before the earning report.  These 6 stocks have been leading the market up and are now likely to take the market down.



                                                             Source Finviz.com

                                                           
                                                             Source finviz.com

















                                                                Source CNBC



                                                               Source Worldometer

。In the last week 2.44 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits for the first time (slightly worse than the 2.40 million expected). That brings the nine-week total to 38.64 million, which is massively worse than the prior worst nine-week period in the last 50-plus years. And of course, last week's "initial" claims and this week's "continuing" claims... the highest level of continuing claims ever.  ---Zero Hedge



。In a rare outburst that went so far as to accuse the "very top" of China's government of a "massive disinformation campaign", Trump slammed China again just days before the biggest Chinese political gathering of the year, with traders betting that it was now just a matter of time before China retaliated in deed instead of just in word.  "Markets may be pricing in far too much complacency as the U.S.-China ‘phase one’ trade deal could be at risk," said market strategist Stephen Innes. "The pandemic and resulting acute economic downturn have made China’s trade commitment to the U.S. much more challenging to fulfill." ---Zero Hedge

。Pressure on Chinese companies is building in the U.S. after the Senate unanimously passed the "The Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act." Firms like Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) or Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU) could be forced to give up their listings on American stock exchanges if they fail to comply with the U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board's audits for three years in a row. The law applies to any foreign company listing or raising capital in the U.S., but China earned a specific mention. ---Wall Street Breakfast

。Exchange-traded funds that track the performance of Chinese companies stumbled Thursday as the House of Representatives considers a bill that could ban Chinese firms from listing on U.S. exchanges, after a similar bill passed the Senate unanimously Wednesday. The Invesco China Technology ETF CQQQ was down 2.7% in early trade Thursday, while shares of Global X MSCI China Consumer Discretionary ETF CHIQ shed 2.3% and KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF KWEB declined 1.8%. The bill would require that foreign companies let the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board oversee the auditing of their financial records if they want to raise money by selling stocks or bonds to the American public. All U.S. companies and most foreign firms already work with the PCAOB in this way, but Chinese firms do not. Some analysts predicted the bill could be swiftly approved as Congress looks to signal toughness toward China in an election year. ---Market Watch

。U.S. home sales logged their biggest drop in nearly 10 years in April as the novel coronavirus pandemic upended the labor market and broader economy, undercutting demand for housing.  The National Association of Realtors said on Thursday existing home sales plunged 17.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.33 million units last month. The percentage decline was the largest since July 2010. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast existing home would decrease 18.9% to a rate of 4.30 million units in April. ---Reuters







美国主要股指开盘小幅上升g ,但立即被抛售,道琼斯指数,标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克指数现在分别下跌了0.46%,0.77%和0.75%。导致市场下跌的其中两个原因是,超过预期的申领失业救济人数以及中美之间日益紧张的局势。但是,我相信技术条件是主要原因。在过去的1个月中,标准普尔500指数连续3次试图突破3000水平而失败。这使得该价位更难以突破并吸引了卖盘。此外,构成标准普尔500指数总市值20%以上的5只股票(AAPL,AMZN,FB,GOOD,MSFT)涨幅过多过快,达到了不可持续的水平。 AAPL,MSFT和纳斯达克100 ETF QQQ在过去10周中上涨了7周,非常接近它们历史最高点。它们接近垂直的V形反转上升无视地心吸力和现实,升势不太可能可持续。它们都有形成看跌的双顶形态的可能性,下行修正似乎不可避免。今天,AMZN和FB均创出新高,并且正在逆转向下。 它们的价位可能已达到最好价。 GOOG是五只股票中的最弱者,正在挣扎超越其近期高点。 然后是今天市场收盘后Nvidea(NVDA)的财报,每个人都预期有一个不错的报告,但是当每个人都已经买进股票并且导致股票今天创新高,股票很难再有很大作为。 这6只股票一直引领市场上涨,现在很可能会带动市场下跌。


   
                                                       Source finviz.com

                                                 

                                                       Source Finviz.com
















                                                            Source CNBC



                                                           Source Worldometer


。上周,有244万美国人首次申请失业救济(略多于预期的240万)。这使九周的总数达到3864万,大大低于过去50多年的最差的九周时期。当然,上周的初报失业申请和本周的“连续”领失业人数是有史以来最高水平的“连续”领失业人数。 ---Zero Hedge



。在一次罕见的爆发中,指责中国政府的“高层”进行了“大规模虚假宣传运动”,特朗普在今年最大的中国政治集会前几天再次猛烈抨击中国。交易员押注中国将采取实际行动报复而不只是之前言辞对骂,这只是时间问题。市场策略师史蒂芬·英尼斯(Stephen Innes)说:“由于美中“第一阶段”贸易协议可能面临风险,市场可能过于乐观。”病毒大流行和随之而来的严重的经济衰退使中国对美国的贸易承诺难以兑现。”---Zero Hedge

。参议院一致通过《外国公司控股责任法》后,中国公司面临的压力正在增加。如果阿里巴巴(NYSE:BABA)或百度(NASDAQ:BIDU)等公司连续三年未能遵守美国上市公司会计监督委员会的审计规定,则可能被迫放弃在美国证券交易所的上市。该法律适用于在美国上市或募集资金的任何外国公司,但中国被特别提及。 ---Wall Street Breakfast

。追踪中国公司业绩的交易所买卖基金周四下跌,因为众议院一项法案可能会禁止中国公司在美国交易所上市,此前类似的法案周三通过了参议院。 Invesco中国科技ETF CQQQ在星期四早盘下跌2.7%,Global X MSCI中国消费必需品ETF CHIQ下跌2.3%和KraneShares CSI中国互联网ETF KWEB下跌1.8%。该法案将要求外国公司如果想通过向美国公众出售股票或债券来筹集资金,则应让上市公司会计监督委员会监督其财务记录的审计。所有美国公司和大多数外国公司都已经以这种方式与PCAOB合作,而中国公司则没有。一些分析人士预测,由于国会希望在选举年内表现出对中国的强硬态度,该法案可能会迅速获得批准。 ---Market Watch

。由于新型冠状病毒大流行摧毁了劳动力市场和整个经济而削弱了住房需求,4月美国房屋销售创下近十年来的最大降幅。全国房地产经纪人协会周四表示,上个月现有房屋销售下降了17.8%,经季节性调整后的年增长率为433万套。该百分比下降是自2010年7月以来最大的下降。路透社调查的经济学家曾预测,现有房屋数量将下降18.9%,至4月份将达到430万套。 ---路透社

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