Tuesday, May 26, 2020

Tech Stocks Topped Out, S&P 500 3000 May Not Hold科技股见顶,标普500指数3000可能不能维持

News that more and more countries are opening up economies and news on COVID-19 vaccines and drugs developments are driving the stock market higher this morning. Dow opened up over 500 points and is now trading up over 600. Small company index Russell 2000 is the strongest among major indexes as it is up over 3.6%. Today's strong sectors are financials, industrials and energy while  weaker by comparison are the health care and technology sectors.  Tech stocks including AAPL, AMZN, FB, GOOG, MSFT and NVDA have been trending since open. As I pointed out in the last few posts warning that tech stocks have been moving up in a vertical fashion and not likely tot be sustainable, today they became the drag for the market.  The hot biotech/healthcare sector is also being sold right from the open in the face of positive COVID-19 vaccine and drug development news. Now that the S&P 500 has satisfy investors desire of breaking the 3000 level but it may not be sustainable as investors may use this opportunity to sell. As a lot of good news on economy reopening and COVID-19 vaccine and treatment developments have factored in the stock market price, it may be time to be cautious since tech stock has topped out, worries on whether reopening will be successful and trade war chance increases between US and China are the concerns.




















。late-stage biotech company Novavax Inc. NVAX, 13.11% said it has started human trials of its vaccine candidate. The first phase of the placebo-controlled study will enroll 130 healthy adults and the first round of data from that study is expected in July. Big drugmaker Merck & Co. MRK, 1.99% also said it is working on two potential vaccines and an experimental drug against the coronavirus, joining rivals in the frantic search for medicines. There are 10 vaccines in clinical evaluation and 114 in preclinical evaluation, according to a running tally by Fundstrat. ---Market Watch

。Consumer confidence in May rose to 86.6 vs. 85.7 prior month, according to The Conference Board, with "expectations" rising as the current situation worsens...Present situation confidence fell to 71.1 vs. 73.0 last month.Consumer confidence expectations rose to 96.9 vs. 94.3 last month. ---Zero Hedge

。Sales of new single-family houses in April 2020 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 623,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 0.6 percent above the revised March rate of 619,000, but is 6.2 percent below the April 2019 estimate of 664,000." ---Calculated Risk

。After months of relative quiet amid the coronavirus pandemic, thousands of protesters flooded the streets of Hong Kong, defying the city's ban on gatherings to voice their opposition to a new "national security" law proposed by Beijing which would threaten the city's autonomy and the civil liberties of its residents. The protesters, most of whom could be seen donning masks, were hit with tear gas less than an hour after the start of the demonstrations which resulted in at least 120 arrests-including 40 of which were people accused of blocking Gloucester Road. A water cannon truck was also deployed according to SCMP. "Beijing unveiled details of the law on Friday, which would most likely grant the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) 's security services jurisdiction over matters in Hong Kong-which drew condemnation from Taiwan, the United Kingdom, the EU, Australia, Canada and the United States, according to the report. --- Zero Hedge

。A top White House aide renewed a warning on Sunday that the US might revoke Hong Kong's special trading privileges if China enacts a tough new security law covering the territory. The warning from national security advisor Robert O'Brien came amid soaring tensions between Washington and Beijing , and only hours after China's foreign minister Wang Yi warned that the two countries seemed poised "at the brink of a new Cold War." Referring to Beijing's 1984 agreement to grant Hong Kong, a former British colony, substantial autonomy through 2047, O ' Brien told CBS's "Face the Nation" that "it looks like they're violating that agreement." "I can't see how Hong Kong remains an Asian financial center if the Chinese Communist Party goes through and implements its national security law and takes over Hong Kong, "he said .--- International Business Times

。Brazil recorded more than 16,500 new cases within 24 hours, meaning the country has the second-highest total number of confirmed cases worldwide after the US. --- CNN

。 Two dozen government institutions and Chinese companies, including the software giant Qihoo 360 Technology, were placed on the first list for “supporting procurement of items for military end-use in China,” according to a May 22 statement by the US Department of Commerce. The Institute of Forensic Science under the Chinese Ministry of Public Security, and eight companies were added to a second list with restricted access to US technology because they are “complicit in human rights violations and abuses… against Uygurs, ethnic Kazakhs, and other members of Muslim minority groups in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,” according to a second statement by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS). T--- South China Morning Post

。The Treasury market is holding in a tenuous calm as traders balance fears that US-China tensions will escalate with hopes that the tepid pace of American business reopenings pick up steam. The rift between Washington and Beijing has moved beyond issues related to the pandemic to include angst over China's national security actions against Hong Kong. This backrop has crimped investors' risk appetite and bolstered demand for Treasuries as a haven. Still, bond bears aren't giving up, emboldened by the easing of social-distancing measures across many US states and by the pipeline of Treasury supply that is growing larger. ---Bloomberg.com


越来越多的国家开放经济及有关COVID-19疫苗和药品发展的消息推高了今早股市。道琼斯指数开盘上升超过500点,目前交易价格接近600。小公司指数罗素2000是主要指数中表现最强的指数,上涨了3.6%。今天的强势板块是金融,工业和能源,而相比之下,弱势领域是医疗保健和科技板块。自开盘以来,包括AAPL,AMZN,FB,GOOG,MSFT和NVDA在内的科技股一直呈下跌趋势。正如我在前几篇博文中警告科技股一直在以垂直的方式上升而不太可能可持续上升,今天它们已成为市场的拖累。面对正面的COVID-19疫苗和药物开发新闻,热门的生物技术/医疗保健行业却也在开盘后立即成为抛售目标。现在,标准普尔500指数已满足投资者突破3000点的期望,但由于许多关于经济重新开放的好消息以及COVID-19疫苗和治疗技术的发展都已反映到股票市场的价格上,投资者可能会利用此机会进行抛售,因此3000点可能不不能守稳。现在是时候要谨慎了,因为科技股的见顶,担心重新开放是否会成功以及中美两国之间的贸易战机会增加会是近期的关注。





















。晚期生物技术公司Novavax Inc. NVAX(13.11%)表示已开始对其候选疫苗进行人体试验。 安慰剂对照研究的第一阶段将招募130名健康成年人,该研究的第一轮数据预计将于7月发布。 大型制药商默克制药(MRK)(1.99%)也表示,正在研发两种潜在的疫苗和一种针对冠状病毒的实验性药物,与竞争对手一起疯狂地寻找药物。 根据Fundstrat的统计,临床评估中有10种疫苗,临床前评估中有114种疫苗。---Market Watch

。The Conference Board数据显示,5月份消费者信心指数从上月的85.7升至86.6,当前形势的恶化,但  “预期”上升……但前信心指数从上个月的73.0降至71.1。预期消费者信心指数升至96.9对上个月的94.3。---Zero Hedge

。根据美国人口普查局和住房与城市发展部今天联合发布的估计,2020年4月新单户住宅的销售按季节调整的年增长率为62.3万。 这比3月的修正值619,000高出0.6%,但比2019年4月的估计值664,000低6.2%。” ---Calculated Risk

。在冠状病毒大流行期间相对安静的几个月后,成千上万的抗议者涌入香港街头,无视该城市禁止集会的禁令,以表示反对北京提出的新《国家安全》法,该法将威胁该城市的自治权和公民权。居民的自由。在示威活动开始不到一个小时后,抗​​议者就被催泪弹击中,其中大多数人戴着口罩,导致至少120人被捕,其中40人被指控封锁格洛斯特路。根据南华早报,还部署了一辆水炮卡车。 “北京周五公布了该法的细节,这很可能会授予中共对香港事务的安全服务管辖权,引起台湾,英国,欧盟,澳大利亚,加拿大和美国的谴责,该报告称。---Zero Hedge

。白宫高层助手周日再次警告说,如果中国颁布一项包括香港在内强硬的新安全法,美国可能会撤销香港的特殊贸易特权。国家安全顾问罗伯特·奥布赖恩(Robert O'Brien)的警告是在华盛顿与北京之间紧张关系激增之际进行的。而就在数小时后,中国外交部长王毅警告两国似乎已“处于新冷战的边缘”。谈到北京于1984年授予香港以前的英国殖民地的协议到2047年拥有实质性自治权,奥布莱恩告诉哥伦比亚广播公司的《面对国家》,“看来他们违反了该协议。”他说:“如果中国共产党通过并执行其国家安全法并接管香港,我看不到香港将如何继续成为亚洲金融中心。” ---《国际商业时报》

。巴西在24小时内记录了超过16,500例新病例,这意味着该国已确诊的病例总数仅次于美国,位居第二。 -CNN

。根据美国商务部5月22日的声明,包括软件巨头奇虎360技术在内的数十家政府机构和中国公司,被列在“支持在中国用于军事最终用途的物品的采购”的第一个列表名单中。中国公安部法医科学研究所和八家公司被添加到第二个名单列表中,这些公司对美国技术的访问受到限制,因为它们“对维吾尔族,哈萨克族和其他新疆维吾尔自治区的穆斯林少数群体侵犯人权”根据商务部工业和安全局(BIS)的第二份声明。.---《南华早报》

。炒家平衡了对美中紧张局势升级的担忧及美国企业重新开业的希望,美国国债市场一直处于平静中。华盛顿和北京之间的裂痕已经超越了与病毒大流行有关的问题,包括对中国针对香港的国家安全行动的担忧。这些消息背景抑制了投资者的风险偏好,并提振了对国债作为避风港的需求。尽管如此,由于美国许多州采取的减少社会隔离措施以及不断扩大的美国国债供应使国债空头仍未放弃。 ---Bloomberg.com

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