Stock Market Likely Going Down 股市走跌的机会大

Major market indexes opened up, fell back, rallied and is now falling again. For the first 2 1/2 hour of trading, the dow traded in a 300 point range.  Major indexes are mixed with Dow and S&P 500 up and Nadaq down. Strengths in the big 5 tech stocks are still the driver for the rising Nasdaq Composite Index.Investors are still using the excuse of economic reopening to buy stocks (however, one can argue that the recent strong rise of the market has reflected this expectation). Today's negatives are falling oil prices due to increase in inventory and rising bond yields because Treasury is borrowing more. These two negatives are probably account for the weak gold price.  After rising 35% from March low, the tiring S&P500 is meeting strong resistance band 2900 to 2950, it is only reasonable for it to pull back. Technically, CCI is losing momentum, PMO indicates overbought and accumulation/distribution indicates money is flowing out.  US stock market looking down. The initial  support is 2664.

。Private payrolls fell by more than 20 million in April, the worst drop in the ADP survey history, though not as bad as estimates of 22 million job losses. The biggest losses came in services and hospitality along with trade, transportation and utilities as well as construction.Big business suffered the worst losses at more than 9 million jobs.  The report utilizes data only through April 12, says ADP, and does not reflect full impact of COVID-19 on the employment situation. Indeed. In the first two weeks after April 12, another 8.3M filed for first-time unemployment, with another 3M expected to be seen in this week's report. The report utilizes data only through April 12, says ADP, and does not reflect full impact of COVID-19 on the employment situation. Indeed. In the first two weeks after April 12, another 8.3M filed for first-time unemployment, with another 3M expected to be seen in this week's report. ---CNBC, Seeking Alpha

。Yields surge after Treasury announces record $96BN in treasury refunding, launches 20-Year Coupon Bond.  10year yield rising 0.062 to 0.719%. ---ZeroHedge

。In its first estimate since lockdowns were put into place, the European Commission said the EU will contract 7.5% in 2020 as the coronavirus pandemic brings the worst economic shock since the Great Depression in the 1930s. "While the immediate fallout will be far more severe for the global economy than the financial crisis, the depth of the impact will depend on the evolution of the pandemic, our ability to safely restart economic activity and to rebound thereafter," said Valdis Dombrovskis, VP for economic affairs. ---Wall Street Breakfast

。EIA oil inventory: crude oil increased 4.6 million barrels, while the market is expected to increase 7.8 million barrels, an increase of 9.0 million barrels last week. Gasoline was -3.2 million barrels, while the consensus was + 0.1M, which was -3.7 million last week. 9.5 million barrels of distillate oil. The American Petroleum Institute reported late Tuesday that U.S. crude supplies rose by 8.4 million barrels for the week ended May 1, according to sources. The API data also reportedly showed gasoline stockpiles down by 2.2 million barrels, while distillate inventories climbed by 6.1 million barrels. Inventory data from the Energy Information Administration will be released Wednesday. ---Market Watch

。President Donald Trump acknowledged on Tuesday that “there’ll be more death” from coronavirus but argued that not reopening businesses would also cost people their lives in other ways such as drug overdoses and suicides. California will permit clothing stores, bookstores and flower shops to reopen for curbside pickup as soon as Friday while New York plans to ease restrictions on manufacturers, construction, and select retailers next week. ---CNBC

。Walt Disney Co (DIS.N) estimated on Tuesday that global coronavirus lockdowns cut profits by $1.4 billion, mostly from its shuttered theme parks, but said it would reopen Shanghai Disneyland next week. Disney will not pay a dividend for the first half of the fiscal year, which will preserve $1.6 billion in cash assuming it had kept the dividend constant at 88 cents per share. CEO Robert Chapek said Disney would reopen the Shanghai park on May 11 with limits on attendance, but the company has “limited visibility” over when most parks, cruises and stores would reopen.---Reuters





主要市场指数高开，回落，反弹，现在在次回落。 在最初的2 1/2小时交易中，道琼斯指数交易在300点范围只内。各大指数涨跌互见。道指及标普小跌，在五大科技股的推动下纳斯达克综合指数上涨。  投资者仍在以经济重新开放为借口购买股票（但是，有人可以辩称，最近市场的强劲上升已经反映了这一预期）。 今天的负面消息是油价下跌和国债收益率上升，原因分别是原油库存增加和财政部推出大量国债。 这两个负面因素可能是导致金价疲软的原因。 在从三月份的低点上涨35％之后，疲倦的标普500遇到了强大的阻力带2900至2950，现在开始回落是合理的。 技术上，CCI正在失去上升动力，PMO显示超买，累积/分发显示资金正在流出。 美股看跌。标普500最初的支撑是2664。

。4月份私人就业人数减少了超过2000万，这是ADP调查历史上最严重的降幅，尽管不如估计的2200万失业人数那么糟糕。损失最大的是服务和款待业，贸易，运输和公用事业以及建筑业;大企业遭受的损失最惨，超过900万个工作岗位。 ADP称，该报告仅利用了截止至4月12日的数据，并未反映出COVID-19对就业情况的全面影响。确实, 在4月12日之后的前两周，又有830万人申请首次失业，本周的报告预计还会有300万人申请失业。 --- CNBC，Seeking Alpha

。在美国财政部宣布创纪录的960亿美元国债返还并推出20年期票息债券后，收益率飙升。 10年期国债收益率上升0.062至0.719％。 ---Zero Hedge

。自禁闭措施实施以来的首次估计，欧盟委员会表示，由于冠状病毒大流行带来自1930年代大萧条以来最严重的经济冲击，欧盟经济将在2020年收缩7.5％ 。经济事务副总裁瓦尔迪斯·多姆布罗夫斯基斯（Valdis Dombrovskis）表示：“尽管全球经济的直接后果要比金融危机严重得多，但影响的深度将取决于大流行的演变，我们安全地重启经济活动并随后反弹的能力，” ---Wall Street Breakfast

。EIA石油库存：原油增加460万桶，而市场预期为增加780万桶，上周增加9.0百万桶。 汽油为-320万桶，而共识为+ 0.1M，上周为-370万。 馏分油950万桶。美国石油协会周二晚间报道称，截至5月1日当周，美国原油供应增加了840万桶。据报道，API数据还显示汽油库存减少了220万桶，而馏出物库存则增加了610万桶。能源信息管理局的库存数据将于周三发布。 ---Market Watch

。唐纳德·特朗普总统周二承认经济重新开放，冠状病毒将“导致更多死亡”，但他表示，不重新开业还会以其他方式使人们丧生，例如药物过量和自杀。加州将允许服装店，书店和花店尽快在周五重新开放，进行路边取货，而纽约计划下周放宽对制造商，建筑和部份零售商的限制。 --- CNBC

。迪斯尼公司（DIS）周二估计，全球冠状病毒封锁使利润减少了14亿美元，主要来自其关闭的主题公园，但表示将在下周重新开放上海迪士尼乐园。迪士尼将不支付本财年上半年的股息每股88美分，它将保留16亿美元的现金。首席执行官罗伯特·查佩克（Robert Chapek）表示，迪士尼将在5月11日重新开放上海公园，但参观人数将受到限制，但迪士尼公司对大多数公园，游轮和商店何时重新开放表示“有限的可见度”。---Reuters