April nonfarm payrolls: -20.5M vs. -21.5M consensus and -870K previous (revised from -701K). Unemployment rate: 14.7% vs. 16.4% consensus and 4.4% prior. Unemployment reaches its highest rate and the largest over-the-month increase in the history of the series, back to January 1948. ---Seeking Alpha
Top trade negotiators for the U.S. and China talked by phone overnight, pledging to create "governmental infrastructures necessary to make the phase one trade deal "a success." "In spite of the current global health emergency, both countries fully expect to meet their obligations under the agreement in a timely manner," read an emailed statement from the USTR. The call alleviated tensions seen earlier in the week after President Trump threatened to "terminate" the pact if China failed to buy promised goods and services from the U.S. ---Wall Street Breakfast
Morgan Stanley earlier this week laid out three scenarios, a bull, base and bear case. What is notable is that even the bull case sees a full recovery only in 2021. The base case tacks on another year to the recovery while the bear case sees double-digit unemployment into 2022 and onward. Goldman sachs agrees with Morgan Stanley, and even in its optimistic report that the US has now moved past the bottom (assuming the is no second round of closures in late 2020), the bank expects labor market slack to remain substantial even in late 2021 and entering 2022. ---Zero Hedge
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer will allow the state's auto manufacturing facilities to reopen on Monday, making it possible for suppliers to begin restarting plants ahead of Ford (NYSE:F), General Motors (NYSE:GM) and Fiat Chrysler (NYSE:FCAU). The Detroit Three intend on resuming operations a week later, while the last U.S. automaker, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), is turning the lights on as soon as today. The latter's Fremont plant has been idled since March 23 due to shutdowns aimed at limiting the spread of COVID-19. ---Wall Street Breakfast
The good news is that the lockdowns are starting to end, but the bad news is that many small business owners are facing a “new normal” in which their monthly revenues will be down by 30, 40 or 50 percent (or more). All of a sudden many small businesses that were once barely profitable have been transformed into businesses that are bleeding a lot of cash each month, and many of them simply are not going to make it. According to a new survey from the Society for Human Resource Management which found that 52% expect to be out of business within six months. The survey of 375 firms was conducted between April 15-21 and doesn’t account for improved business conditions as some U.S. states reopen this month. ---Michael Snyder via mostimportantnews.com
The Institute of Supply Management’s April Survey of the non-manufacturing sector (i.e., service industries) showed a record plunge in “business activity”. The scale of the decline is far bigger than anything seen during the Great Financial Recession and signals a record drop-in service sector Q2 revenue and operating profits. The composite index for the non-manufacturing sector fell 10.7 percentage points to 41.8 percent in April, the lowest reading since March 2009. But the headline reading dramatically understates the severity of the collapse in the service sector. The “business activity index”, one of the subcomponents of the current composite index, declined 22 percentage points to 26%, the lowest reading in the 22-year history of the non-manufacturing survey. ---Joseph Carson, former Chief Economist of Alliantz
In January 2020, the Trump administration was advised that immediate action was required to stop the spread of COVID-19. According to NIAID Director Dr. Anthony Fauci, 'there was a lot of pushback' to this advice. President Trump declined to act until March 16th. Epidemiologists now estimate that, had mitigation measures been implemented one week earlier, 60 percent of American COVID-19 deaths would have been avoided." Yale University Assistant Professor of Epidemiology Gregg Gonsalves " I am being serious here: what is happening in the US is purposeful, considered negligence, omission, failure to act by our leaders. Can they be held responsible under international law?" ---John Street via campusreform.org
美国主要股指开盘飙升，并且继续走强。 隔夜股指期货早在自1948年以来最糟糕的非农就业报告之前就已经交易强劲。 糟糕的报告发布后，股指期货犹豫了片刻，开盘后便继续走高。 股市升势似乎不能停止。 现在只能让它走到尽头为止, 很快就到尽头。 无论坏消息如何，股市都在上涨。 股市正在反映了很多好消息。 在市场情绪周期图上，我认为我们正处于极度乐观（Euphoria）阶段，需要谨慎行事。 在当前糟糕的经济状况下很难看好。技术上，标准普尔500的阻力位仍在2900和2950之间，支撑位是2663和2573。纳斯达克综合指数的阻力位是9200和9315，支撑位是8447和8443。道琼斯指数的阻力位是24264和24585，支撑位是23000。
。4月非农就业人数：-2,050万，而共识为-2,150万，之前为-87万（从-701,000修正）。失业率：14.7％，共识为16.4％，之前为4.4％。失业率达到了最高水平，是该系列历史上月最大的增幅，可追溯到1948年1月。---Seeking Alpha
。美国和中国的主要贸易谈判代表通宵电话对话，承诺建立“使第一阶段贸易协议“成功”所必需的政府基础设施。”尽管当前发生全球卫生紧急情况，但两国都完全希望履行其义务。根据美国贸易代表办公室的电子邮件声明，该电话缓解了紧张气氛。特朗普曾总统扬言如果中国未能从美国购买承诺的商品和服务时会终止协议，该威胁现在的到缓解。--- Wall Street Breakfast
。摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）本周早些时候提出了经济发展的三种情况，乐观，基本和悲观。 值得注意的是，即使是乐观的情况也要到2021年才能完全恢复。基本情况还要延续一年，而悲观情况则要到2022年及之后会出现两位数的失业率。 高盛同意摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的观点，甚至在其乐观的报告中称美国现在已经走出谷底（假设2020年末没有第二轮关闭），该银行预计劳动力市场的疲软仍将持续到2021年末以至进入2022年。---Zero Hedge
。密歇根州州长格雷琴·惠特默（Gretchen Whitmer）将于周一重新开放该州的汽车制造厂，使供应商有可能在福特（NYSE：F），通用汽车（NYSE：GM）和菲亚特克莱斯勒（NYSE：FCAU）重开之前开始重启工厂。底特律的三家汽车公司打算在一周后恢复运营，而特斯拉（NASDAQ：TSLA）最快会在今天开工。由于旨在限制COVID-19扩散的关闭，后者的Fremont工厂自3月23日以来一直处于闲置状态。 ---Wall Street Breakfast
。好消息是封锁已经开始结束，但坏消息是许多小企业主正面临“新常态”，其月收入将下降30％，40％或50％（或更多）。突然之间，许多曾经只有微薄利润的小企业变成了每月流失大量现金的企业，而其中许多根本就不会赚钱。根据人力资源管理协会的一项新调查，发现52％的企业被认为会在六个月内倒闭。这项针对375家公司的调查是在4月15日至21日之间进行的，并未考虑到商业状况有所改善，因为美国部分州本月重新开放。 -Michael Snyder，mostimportantnews.com
。供应管理协会（Institute of Supply Management）4月份对非制造业（即服务业）的调查显示，“业务活动”大幅下降。下降的幅度远远大于经济大萧条期间看到的任何幅度，并标志着服务业第二季度收入和利润将创历史新低。 4月份非制造业综合指数下降10.7个百分点，至41.8％，为2009年3月以来的最低水平。但是，标题数据大大低估了服务业崩溃的严重性。作为当前综合指数的子组成部分之一，“商业活动指数”下降了22个百分点，至26％，是非制造业调查22年历史中的最低水平。 ---前安联首席经济学家约瑟夫·卡森（Joseph Carson）
。2020年1月，特朗普政府被告知必须立即采取行动以阻止COVID-19的扩散。根据NIAID总监Anthony Fauci博士的说法，这一建议遭到“很多反对”。特朗普总统拒绝采取行动，直到3月16日。流行病学家现在估计，如果早一个星期实施缓解措施，就可以避免60％的美国COVID-19死亡。者是有目的的，考虑过的过失及疏忽，我们的领导人没有采取行动。他们可以根据国际法承担责任吗？” ---JohnStreet，campusreform.org
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