Charting The Already Started Down Trend 图表看已开始了的跌势

S&P 500 peaked at 2954 last week during the latest 35% rally from March 23 bottom. Near  by 2954 there are 62% bounce level at  2937 and 200 day moving average level at 3005. So the 2954 to 3005 band is where major resistances lie, and is a formidable resistance area.  Last Friday's downside action is bearish as it broke the 1 1/2 month uptrend line. CCI is curving down which means losing of upside momentum. Increasing Put buying and rising volatility are indicative of traders are getting ready to participate on the coming market down turn. On its weekly chart, last week's long upper shadow reversal candle is indicative of end of the recent rally and downward trend begins. Downside targets using Fibonacci retracement levels are 2663 (38% retracement), 2573 (50% retracement),2483 (61.8% retracement) and 2192 (100% retracement). Going down to 2663 and 2573 levels are most likely, and going down to 2483 and 2192 can not be rule out in the new downtrend.

Further enforcing the coming downtrend is by using the Elliot Wave analysis. The following chart posted by AndysCycle tells the ending of wave 2 up move and starting of the 3rd wave down.

For people who like prediction for the next few months, chartist David Larew posted the following chart satisfies your need. His chart looks reasonable.

标普500指数在3月23日触底后的35％反弹中上星期达到了2954的峰值。 在2954年附近，2937是62％的反弹水平，而3005是200天移动平均水平。因此2954至3005区域是主要阻力所在，并且是一个难以突破的阻力区域。 上周五的下行是看跌的，因为它跌穿了1 1/2个月的上升趋势线支撑。 CCI正在下滑，这意味着失去上涨动力。 看跌期权购买的增加和波动指数的上升表明交易者已准备好参与即将到来的市场下滑。 在S&P500周图上，上周的长上影线转势蜡烛显示近期涨势已经结束，并且下跌趋势开始。 使用斐波那契回撤水平得出的下行目标是2663（38％回调），2573（50％回调），2483（61.8％回调）和2192（100％回调）。 下降到2663和2573是最有可能的，下降到2483和2192的可能性也不能排除。

通过使用Elliot Wave分析进一步加强即将到来的下降趋势。 下图由AndysCycle发布，告诉我们第二波上升趋势的结束和第三波下降趋势的开始。

对于喜欢预测未来几个月趋势的人来说，图表实践者David Larew发布了以下图表可以满足您的需求。 他的图有一定的可信性。