It Is Not Time To Buy Stocks Yet 现在还不是买入股票时候

After a few days of upside action in the stock market, optimism rises quickly as a few analysts declare bottom. I am so confident (people are always confident in their views) to say that they are wrong. They are luring retail investors back into the stock market only to see the market drop another 20-30% in the near future.

Since the virus pandemic has not yet reached its peak, bad news will continue to arrive. More than a month ago, economists and analysts badly underestimated the impact of the pandemic on the economy. Even now they have made new estimates, I believe they will still be wrong. Because the impact on the economy is unpredictable before the outbreak is under control. Technically the rebound after market plunge is always temporary. After the rebound is completed, the routine action is that the last bottom will be retested. The S&P 500 will likely retest the Monday, March 23 low of 2191 level.  Even if  we go back down to this level, there is no guarantee that the market will stop there. If we believe that the economic impact of this coronavirus crisis is greater than that of the previous crisis (in the past few decades), then falling to the level of 2191 (-34%) should not be enough.  I do believe that the present crisis is worse than any previous crisis since stock market drop the most in the fastest time in history and the panic response from  the Federal Reserve and the federal government. Federal Reserve dropped interest rate twice to near 0 and the federal government passed the largest stimulus package in history. Since  the worst bear markets in the past fell from 44% to 57%, the 5 worst bear markets  average drop is  51% and it takes an average two years to recover, so why hurry to buy?

                                                                    Source James A. Kosthryz

I have written two post to figure out where the bottom of the S&P 500 be and come up with 3 possible levels : 41% drop from historic high to 1985, 54% drop to 1576 and 67% drop to 1114.
I have a feeling that it will drop  either 54% or 67%. For details please refer to "Three Drives To Bottom, We Are On Third Drive Down" https://tradeideablog.blogspot.com/2020/03/three-drives-to-bottom-we-are-on-third.html and "Where Is The Bottom For This Bear Market" https://tradeideablog.blogspot.com/2020/03/where-is-bottom-of-this-bear-market.html

After a 20.36% bounce from its 2191 low, the S&P 500 met its resistances at  50% retracement level 2666 and 20 day moving average 2612. These are the bounce objectives I predicted in post "How Much Can The Market Bounce" https://tradeideablog.blogspot.com/2020/03/how-much-can-market-bounce.htmlas . The bounce is over and will likely go down to retest 2191low. Market trend is down.

在几天的股市上涨行情之后，随着一些分析师宣布市场触底，投资人乐观情绪迅速飘升。我自信（人们总是对自己的观点充满信心的）的说他们错了。他们的言论吸引很多散户投资者重返股市，只是将会看到市场在不久的将来下跌多20-30％。

由于病毒大流行尚未达到高峰，坏消息将继续到来。一个多月前就有经济学家及分析师大幅低估了疫情对经济的冲击。即使现在他们又作了从新估计，相信他们还是会错的。因为疫情还未受到控制之前，对经济有多大的影响是无法预料的。从技术上讲，市场暴跌后的反弹总是暂时的。反弹完成后，常规操作是将重新测试上次的底部。标准普尔500指数可能会重新测试3月23日星期一的低点2191水平。即使市场跌回到这一水平，也无法保证市场会在那里就能停得住。如果我们认为这次冠状病毒危机对经济影响大于以前危机（过去几十年）的经济影响，那么仅下降到2191（-34％）的水平应该是不够的。我确实相信，当前的危机比以往任何一次危机都更加严重，因为股市跌幅是历史上最多最快的，而且美联储和联邦政府的恐慌反应证明了危机的严重性。美联储两次降息至接近零。联邦政府通过了有史以来最大的刺激计划。由于过去最糟糕的熊市跌幅是从44％至57％，5个最坏熊市平均下跌50％，并且平均需要两年时间才能恢复，那为什么还要急着买股票呢？

                                                                   Source James A. Kosthryz

我之前有两篇博文指出可能的标准普尔500指数底部的位置，并提出了3种可能的水平：从历史高位下降41％到1985，下降54％到1576及下降67％到1114。我感觉它将下降54％或67％。有关详细信息，请参阅“三波下跌见底，我们在第三波下跌 ”https://tradeideablog.blogspot.com/2020/03/three-drives-to-bottom-we-are-on-third.html
及“这次熊市的底部在哪里？”  https://tradeideablog.blogspot.com/2020/03/where-is-bottom-of-this-bear-market.html

从2191的低点反弹20.36％之后，标准普尔500指数在50％回撤水平2666和20日移动平均线2612处遇到阻力。这些都是是我在博文“市场能反弹多少”中预测的反弹目标。
https：// tradeideablog.blogspot.com/2020/03/how-much-can-market-bounce.html作为。 现在反弹结束，可能会下跌重新测试2191低点。 市场趋势下跌。

Quarter End Buying Nearly Done ? 季末买盘快将结束？

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。Latest COVID-19 Statistics:

Global cases: More than 800,000
Global deaths: At least 38,714
US cases: At least 164,610
US deaths: At least 3,170

。The torrid quarter-end rally which many attributed to a flood of forced pension fund buying as part of aggressive rebalancing, reversed overnight as US index futures reversed all overnight gains even as European stocks headed for a fifth increase in six sessions amid ongoing debate whether the market meltdown has ended despite the accelerating spread of the coronavirus (spoiler alert: no), while treasury yields dipped below 0.7% while the disconcerting dollar rally is back front and center.---ZeroHedge

。The coronavirus economic freeze could cost 47M jobs and send the unemployment rate past 32%, according to the latest projections from the St. Louis Fed. They reflect the high nature of at-risk jobs that ultimately could be lost to a government-induced economic freeze aimed at halting the spread of COVID-19. A record 3.3M Americans filed initial jobless claims for the week ended March 21 and economists expect another 2.65M or more to join them this week. ---Wall Street Breakfast

。Moody's Investors Service has lowered its outlook on U.S. corporate debt from stable to negative, saying that a coronavirus recession will result in rising default rates. "Government support will cushion the blow for some companies, but it is unlikely to prevent distress at businesses with less certain long-term viability," wrote Senior Credit Officer Edmond DeForest. The situation is especially troubling as non-financial corporate debt totaled $6.6T at the end of 2019, a 78% increase since the Great Recession ended in mid-2009.---Wall Street Breakfast

。Furloughs at Macy's (NYSE:M) will affect the "majority" of its 125,000 workers, while Gap (NYSE:GPS), which owns Old Navy and Banana Republic, said it would furlough nearly 80,000 store employees in the U.S. and Canada. L Brands (NYSE:LB) is suspending most store staff, Nordstrom (NYSE:JWN) is putting "a portion of corporate employees" on temporary leave and furloughs total 85,000 at Kohl's (NYSE:KSS). It's a stark sign of how devastating the coronavirus will be on many apparel and accessories retailers which were already under pressure before COVID-19. ---Wall Street Breakfast

。China factory activity saw a strong rebound in March, March PMI surprisingly surge to 52, indicating that the economy is getting back to work just as it will face a steep decline in demand due to the economic blow of the coronavirus outbreak. That helped oil prices to stage a small recovery on Tuesday, even if crude prices are still set for the worst quarter in history in a market where traders are scrambling to book overflowing tankers. Asian stocks were mixed and both U.S. and European stock futures are down going into what has been one of the most volatile quarters in recent memory.---Bloomberg

。As we've previously noted, every four decades, something jinxes the Olympics. Japanese officials spent the last several months downplaying the virus outbreak, but as soon as the Games were delayed on March 23, virus cases in Tokyo spiked, with possible lockdowns looming, reported AP News.  Former government officials have raised their eyebrows of just how COVID-19 cases were low before the postponement, to now on an exponential curve, as some have suggested there was a coverup by the government to artificially suppress cases to make it appear that the Games would go on. ---ZeroHedge

。The Hollywood Reporter noted that the government gave nearly 600 movie theaters across China the green light for phased reopening in the third week of March. Then by March 27, Beijing's Film Bureau requested that all theaters go into lockdown. The Chinese government did not explicitly cite the reason for the latest theater closings. Still, scientists are now warning that a second coronavirus wave could be arriving by the end of April."It's time to relax the lockdown, but we need to be alert for a potential second wave of infections," says Ben Cowling, an epidemiologist at the University of Hong Kong.Cowling warned that a second wave of the fast-spreading virus could hit China by the end of April. ---ZeroHedge




。最新COVID-19统计：

全球案例：超过80万
全球死亡人数：至少38,714
美国案件：至少164,610
美国死亡人数：至少3,170

。激烈的季度末反弹是许多人归因于积极的季末养老基金资产再平衡的强迫购买的结果，但隔夜被扭转，美国指数期货扭转了所有隔夜的涨势，尽管欧洲股市在六个交易日中上涨了五日。尽管冠状病毒传播加速，而市场崩溃已经结束否这个问题仍在被争论中。美国国债收益率跌至0.7％以下，而令人不安的美元涨势又回到了中心位置。---ZeroHedge

。根据圣路易斯联储的最新预测，冠状病毒导致的经济冻结可能会使4,700万个工作丧失，并使失业率超过32％。它们反映出高风险工作的性质，这些风险最终可能因政府旨在阻止COVID-19传播导致经济冻结而失去。截至3月21日的一周，创纪录的330万美国人首次申请失业救济，经济学家预计本周还将有265万或更多人申请失业救济。 ---华尔街早餐

。穆迪投资者服务公司（Moody's Investors Service）已将对美国公司债务的展望从稳定下调为负面，称冠状病毒衰退将导致违约率上升。高级信贷官埃德蒙德·德福雷斯特（Edmond DeForest）写道：“政府的支持将减轻一些公司的打击，但不可能防止长期生存能力较弱的企业陷入困境。”这种情况尤其令人不安，因为截至2019年底，非金融公司债务总额为6.6T，自2009年年中大萧条结束以来增长了78％。---华尔街早餐

。梅西百货（NYSE：M）的无薪放假将影响其125,000名员工的“多数”，而拥有Old Navy和Banana Republic的Gap（NYSE：GPS）则表示将在美国和加拿大休假停薪近80,000名商店员工。 L Brands（NYSE：LB）暂停了大多数商店员工的工作，Nordstrom（NYSE：JWN）将“一部分公司雇员”暂时休假，而Kohl's（NYSE：KSS）的停薪休假总数为85,000。这是一个鲜明的迹象，表明在COVID-19之前就已经面临压力的许多服装和配饰零售商将遭受毁灭性冠状病毒的打击。 ---华尔街早餐

。正当冠状病毒爆发的经济打击，其需求将急剧下降之际，3月份中国工厂活动强劲反弹，3月份PMI 出乎意料上升至52显示经济正恢复正常运转。即使原油价格仍处于历史上最糟糕的一个季度，但交易员们争先恐后地预订了满载的油轮，这也帮助油价在周二小幅反弹。亚洲股市涨跌互现，在近期记忆最动荡的季度之一快将结束之际，美国和欧洲股市期货均今早下跌。--彭博社

。正如我们之前所提到的，每隔四十年，奥运会就会发生一些事情。据《 AP News》报道，日本官员在过去几个月中淡化了病毒的爆发，但是，一旦奥运会于3月23日被推迟后，东京的病毒病例便激增并可能出会实行现封锁。前政府官员对对奥运延期之前COVID-19案件的低数量到现在呈几何曲线上升表示震惊，因为有些人建议政府对确诊案件进行掩盖，以使奥运会看起来可以继续继续。 ---零对冲

。好莱坞记者指出，中国政府为3月第三周分阶段重新开放的中国电影院开了绿灯。然后，到了3月27日，北京电影局要求所有电影院关闭。中国政府没有明确指出最近关闭剧院的原因。科学家们警告说，第二轮冠状病毒可能会在4月底到达。“现在是时候放松封锁了，但是我们需要警惕第二波潜在的感染，”美国流行病学家Ben Cowling说。考林警告说，第二波快速传播的病毒可能会在四月底袭击中国。 ---零对冲

Month And Quarter End Buying May Have Been Supporting Market 月尾和季度末买盘可能支持着市场

Evening Stock Index Futures are up about 0.7%. The stronger than expected China's March PMI may have helped.

。Latest COVID-19 statistics:

Global cases: More than 790,111
Global deaths: At least 39,881
US cases: At least 163,932
US deaths: At least 3,138

。Stocks rose on Monday, building on a strong rally from last week as the U.S. extended measures to contain the coronavirus outbreak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 690.70 points, or 3.2%, at 22,327.48. The S&P 500 climbed 3.4% to 2,626.65 while the Nasdaq Composite closed 3.6% higher at 7,774.15. Tech stocks such as Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon led the way higher for Wall Street. Microsoft jumped 7% while Alphabet and Amazon climbed 3.3% and 3.4%, respectively.  ---CNBC

。Investors should be buying individual stocks, not indexes because there is still more coronavirus-driven volatility ahead, economist Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC. “If you feel it’s the all clear, go out and buy the index ... I don’t think we’re there yet,” the chief economic advisor at Allianz said on “Squawk Box.” El-Erian said investors should sell companies that could go bankrupt and buy those with “rock-solid balance sheets.”  He also said quarter end asset rebalancing is going to help the stock market in the next few days.  And the sell everything moment has passed。---CNBC

。“Right now, risk assets are pricing in a V-shape recovery,” said Dave Albrycht, chief investment officer at Newfleet Asset Management. “Now, do I believe that’s going to happen? I think that’s highly dependent on whether they come up with some type of vaccine, how long does this go on for and whether people start going back to work once this peaks.” ---CNBC

。China announced March Manufacturing PMI 52.0, exp. 44.8 and up from 35.7. The 50+ print means China is now solidly back in expansion; even more laughably, this was the highest print since September 2017. Non-manufacturing PMI 52.3, exp. 42.0, and up from 29.6. This print is also well in expansion. ---Zero Hedge

。Economist Stephen Roach believes the country is sinking into an unprecedented recession. Roach, who’s former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, warns the coronavirus is spiraling the United States into a downturn that’ll be difficult to exit. “This is a sudden stop in the U.S. economy. The hope is we’ll get through this. But it’s at least two quarters of the sharpest declines we’ve seen since the end of World War II,” the Yale University senior fellow told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Monday. ---CNBC

。Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told reporters on Monday that it is likely there will be another coronavirus outbreak in the fall. “In fact, I would anticipate that that would actually happen,” said Fauci, who is a key member of the White House's coronavirus task force.----CNN

。President Donald Trump and members of his administration have discussed whether to impose a nationwide stay-at-home order to slow the spread of the coronavirus. That option is “pretty unlikely, I would think, at this time,” Trump said.Trump’s remarks came a day after the White House extended its “social distancing” guidelines through April 30 – weeks after he had previously suggested businesses might be able to reopen.---CNN






。晚间股指数期货上涨约0.7％。 中国3月份PMI的强于预期可能有所帮助。

。最新的COVID-19统计信息：

全球案例：超过790,111
全球死亡人数：至少39,881
美国案件：至少163,932
美国死亡人数：至少3138

。由于美国延长了遏制冠状病毒爆发的措施，周一股市上涨，继续了上周强劲反弹。
道琼斯工业平均指数上涨690.70点或3.2％，至22,327.48。 标普500指数上涨3.4％至2,626.65点，纳斯达克综合指数上涨3.6％至7,774.15点。 微软，Alphabet和亚马逊等科技股领涨华尔街。 微软上涨了7％，而Alphabet和亚马逊分别上涨了3.3％和3.4％。 --- CNBC

。经济学家穆罕默德·埃里安（Mohamed El-Erian）告诉CNBC，投资者应该购买个股，而不是指数，因为未来还会有更多由冠状病毒引起的波动。 安联首席经济顾问在“ Squawk Box”上说：“如果您感觉事情已经过去，那就买入指数……我认为我们还没有达到到个地步。” 埃里安·埃里安（El-Erian）表示，投资者应卖可能破产的公司，并购买拥有“坚如磐石的资产负债表”的公司。 他还表示，季度末资产再平衡将在未来几天内帮助股市。 抛售一切的时刻已经过去。---CNBC

。Newfleet Asset Management首席投资官Dave Albrycht表示：“目前，风险资产正在以反映V型复苏。” “我相信这会发生吗？ 我认为，这在很大程度上取决于他们能否发展出某种类型的疫苗，病毒的散发将持续多长时间以及一旦达到高峰，人们是否会重新开始工作。” --- CNBC

。中国宣布3月制造业PMI 为52.0，预期为44.8，二月份为35.7。 这是自2017年9月以来的最高记录。非制造业PMI 52.3，预期为 42.0，二月份为29.6。---Zero Hedge

。经济学家史蒂芬·罗奇（Stephen Roach）认为，美国正陷入前所未有的衰退。 摩根士丹利亚洲区前董事长罗奇（Roach）警告说，冠状病毒正在使美国陷入衰退，这将很难退出。 “这是美国经济的突然停顿。 希望我们能解决这个问题。 但是，这至少是自第二次世界大战以来我们看到的最大跌幅的两个季度，”耶鲁大学高级研究员周一告诉CNBC的“交易国家”。 --- CNBC

。美国国家过敏和传染病研究所所长安东尼·福西博士周一对记者说，秋天很可能还会爆发冠状病毒。 白宫冠状病毒特别工作组的重要成员福西说：“实际上，我预计那将会发生。”---CNN

。唐纳德·特朗普总统及其政府成员讨论过是否要在全国范围内实施在家禁令，以减缓冠状病毒的传播。 特朗普说，这种选择“目前看来不太可能。”特朗普发表上述言论是在白宫将其“社会疏离”准则延长至4月30日的第二天，他此前曾暗示企业可能提前重新开放.-- CNN

No Reason For Optimism 没有理由乐观

。Latest COVID-19 statistics:

Global cases: More than 744,438
Global deaths: At least 35,159
US cases: At least 143,724
US deaths: At least 3.207

。Across the United States, jails and prisons are reporting an accelerating spread of the new disease, and they are taking a varied approach to protecting the inmates in their charge. Thousands of inmates are being released from detention, in some cases with little or no medical screening to determine if they may be infected by the coronavirus and at risk of spreading it into the community, Reuters found. Since March 22, jails have reported 226 inmates and 131 staff with confirmed cases of COVID-19, according to a Reuters survey of cities and counties that run America’s 20 largest jails. The numbers are almost certainly an undercount given the fast spread of the virus. Hot spots include Cook County jail in Chicago, Illinois. Since the first case was confirmed there on Sunday, the virus has infected 89 inmates and nine staff. Test results are pending for 92 other detainees. ---Reuters

。China’s central bank joined the global easing bandwagon early on Monday when it unexpectedly cut the rate on reverse repurchase agreements by 20 basis points, the largest in nearly five years, as authorities stepped up measures to relieve pressure on an economy ravaged by coronavirus pandemic. Without giving a reason for the move, the People’s Bank of China said on its website that it was lowering the 7-day reverse repo rate to 2.20% from 2.40%, the lowest on record. This was the first rate cut since a 10bps cut in December 2019, and the third cut in the 7-day rate since November. ---ZeroHedge

。There is simply too much optimism in the stock market, and in many cases investors are buying without doing research. Here are a few examples:

• Abbott Laboratories ABT, +7.87% has come up with a coronavirus test that takes five minutes. The revenues from the coronavirus test will dwarf those that Abbott is likely to lose due to issues related to coronavirus. Investors are running up the stock.

• Johnson & Johnson JNJ, +6.87% is making great progress on a coronavirus vaccine. Johnson & Johnson is likely to sell the vaccine at cost. This will have no material increase in earnings. Investors are running up the stock.

• General Motors GM, -0.37% will make ventilators. It is selling them at cost, so they will have no impact on earnings. Investors are running up the stock.

• Medtronic MDT, +2.47% makes ventilators, which are a small portion of its business. At the same time, Medtronic is suffering because its sales are likely to drop due to the postponement of non-essential surgeries. Investors aren’t seeing the whole picture. And, yes, they are running up the stock.

---Nigam Arora via Marketwatch

。On Sunday's press conference， Trump said:"We will be extending our guidelines through April 30 to slow the spread. On Tuesday we will finalizing these plans and providing a summary of our findings, supporting data, and strategy to the American people." "We will have an important statement tuesday, probably Tuesday evening, on all of the finding and all of the data and the reasons we are doing things the way we are doing them." "We can expect that by June 1, we will be well on our way to recovery"---Mish Talk

。Microsoft founder and philanthropist Bill Gates was heard on CNN Global Town Hall on Thursday (March 26) as saying six to ten weeks of lockdowns across the country is now necessary to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Gates said the response in the US was slow and chaotic. He said if the government would have "behaved a little bit like the countries that have done the best on this one" – then maybe the spread could have been suppressed. He warned that the "peak" in cases and deaths is not close, indicating that further lockdowns will be needed to flatten the curve and slowdown infections to avoid hospital systems from being overwhelmed. ---ZeroHedge



。最新的COVID-19统计信息：

全球案例：超过732,153
全球死亡人数：至少34,686
美国案件：至少143,055
美国死亡人数：至少2,513


。在美国各地，监狱正在报告新疾病的加速传播，并且他们正在采取各种不同的方法来保护囚犯。路透社发现，成千上万的囚犯被释放出狱，在某些情况下，他们几乎没有进行医学筛查以确定他们是否可能被冠状病毒感染，并有传播到社区的风险。根据路透社对美国20个最大监狱的县市调查，自3月22日以来，监狱已报告226名囚犯和131名工作人员确诊COVID-19病例。考虑到病毒的迅速传播，这些数字几乎可以算是低估了。热点包括伊利诺伊州芝加哥的库克县监狱。自从星期天在那里确认第一例病例以来，该病毒已经感染了89名囚犯和9名工作人员。其他92名被拘留者的检测结果正在等待中。 ---路透社

。周一早些时候，中国央行加入了全球宽松政策行列，它意外地将反向回购协议的利率下调了20个基点，为近五年来最大水平，原因是当局加大了对缓解冠状病毒大流行的经济的压力。中国人民银行没有给出任何举动的理由，但在其网站上表示将将7天反向回购利率从2.40％降至历史最低的2.20％。这是自2019年12月降息10个基点以来的首次降息，也是自11月以来的7天利率的第三次降息。 ---Zero Hedge

。投资人实在是太乐观了，在许多情况下，投资者是在没有做研究的情况下买进股票的。这里有一些例子：

•Abbott Laboratories ABT，+ 7.87％提供了一项需时5分钟的冠状病毒测试。冠状病毒测试的收入与冠状病毒有关的问题而可能损失的收入相形见撮。投资者却在推高股票。

•强生公司（Johnson＆Johnson JNJ）在冠状病毒疫苗方面取得了巨大的进步，股票+ 6.87％。强生很可能会以成本价出售疫苗。这将不会大幅增加公司的收入。投资者却在推高股票。

•通用汽车GM，-0.37％将制造通风机。它将以成本价出售，因此它们不会对收益产生影响。投资者却在推高股票。

•美敦力MDT生产呼吸机+ 2.47％，这只是其业务的一小部分。同时，美敦力（Medtronic）遭受苦难的原因是，由于不必要的手术推迟，其销售额可能会下降。投资者看不到全貌。而且，是的，投资者却在推高股票。

--- Nigam Arora通过Marketwatch

。特朗普在周日的新闻发布会上说：“我们将把原定指导方针延长至4月30日，以减缓这种蔓延。周二，我们将敲定这些计划，并向美国人民总结我们的发现，支持的数据和战略。” “我们将在周二（可能是周二晚上）发表重要声明，说明所有调查结果，所有数据以及我们按照自己的方式行事的原因。” “我们预计到6月1日，我们将步入复苏之路” --- Mish Talk

。微软创始人兼慈善家比尔·盖茨周四（3月26日）在CNN全球会堂会议中说，现在应该在全国范围内实行六至十周的封锁，以减轻COVID-19的蔓延。盖茨说，美国的反应是缓慢而混乱的。他说，如果政府将“表现得像在这方面做得最好的国家一样” –那么扩散可能会受到抑制。他警告说，案件和死亡的“高峰”还没有结束，这表明将需要进一步封锁以使曲线变平并降低感染的速度，以避免医院系统不堪重负。 ---Zero Hedge

Impacts Of The COVID-19 Pandemic COVID-19b病毒大流行的影响

。The survey conducted by RapidRatings between March 2 and March 18 fielded more than 1,300 responses from private companies across industries that included metals, chemicals, textiles and services. Most of those surveyed come from the countries that have been hit hardest by the virus, including Italy, China, South Korea and Japan, as well as from Europe and the U.S. About 57% said they are partially operational. Not surprisingly, small businesses, defined as having annual revenue of $10 million to $100 million, are faring worst, with 76% reporting that they are not able to operate at full capacity. A third of respondents said they are experiencing disruption to their own supply chains.
---MarketWatch

。More than three million people filed for unemployment benefits in the United States the week of March 15, setting a grim record as the most ever in a one-week period. The jobs report for the month of March, to be released on Friday, is expected to show an even bleaker picture. And beyond that, even the most optimistic forecasters predict that millions more will be out of work, unable to pay their bills. Some economists say the decline in gross domestic product this year could be comparable to the worst years of the Great Depression. Nobody knows what the recovery will look like yet, but one thing is certain: Things will get more dire before they improve.---The New York Time

。“In the West, the economic fallout from the outbreak is only just beginning. Markets may be able to look through some pretty horrible economic data -- like the non-reaction to the historic spike in U.S. jobless claims last week -- but will likely be sensitive to news on the duration of shutdowns. ---Zach Pandl and team at Goldman Sachs

。“A lot of the recent good stimulus news are now priced in; some market participants and Trump may be in a for a rude awakening in terms of the impact from the virus.” “Dollar-positive re-balancing flows could hold U.S. equities back going into April; and the money pumped into the U.S. economy in the new stimulus bill may take a longer time to show up.” --Martin Enlund, Andreas Steno Larsen and Joachim Bernhardsen, analysts at Nordea Bank ABP.

。“Uncertainty over the length and depth of the viral outbreak remains a dominant concern for investors. “The focus this week will remain on various governmental efforts to fight the physical and economic impact of coronavirus. Investors will also be keeping an eye on economic data to gauge the intensity of damage to the global economy.” --Aditya Pugalia, director of financial markets research at Emirates NBD PJSC in Dubai.

。U.S. consumer sentiment plummeted in March by the most since October 2008 as mounting Covid-19 cases nationwide and business closures elevated concerns about the economy. The University of Michigan’s final sentiment index for the month slumped 11.9 points to a three-year low of 89.1, data Friday showed. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a decline to 90 after a preliminary March reading of 95.9. ---Bloomberg

。Early estimates of unemployment data shows at least half a million New Yorkers have or will lose their jobs because of the coronavirus. A lot of people can’t get even get through online or via phone to apply for unemployment, he added.  Americans filed over 3 million unemployment claims last week because of the pandemic.---CNBC




。RapidRatings在3月2日至3月18日之间进行的调查显示，私营企业在金属，化工，纺织和服务等行业有超过1300个的回应。接受调查的大多数来自受病毒感染最严重的国家，包括意大利，中国，韩国和日本，以及来自欧洲和美国。约57％的回应表示，他们已只是部分运作。毫不奇怪，年收入在1000万美元至1亿美元之间的小企业表现最差，有76％的小企业表示他们无法满负荷运营。三分之一的受访者表示，他们正在经历自己的供应链中断。---MarketWatch

。3月15日当周，美国有超过300万人申请失业救济，创下了一周以来的最高纪录。预计将于周五发布的3月份的就业报告将显示出更加黯淡的景象。除此之外，即使是最乐观的预报也预测还有数百万人将无法工作，无法支付账单。一些经济学家说，今年的国内生产总值（GDP）下降可能与大萧条最严重的时期相当。没人知道复苏会是什么样子，但是有一点可以肯定：事情在改善之前会变得更加可怕。---《纽约时报》

。“在西方，因病毒爆发对经济的影响才刚刚开始。市场可能能够忽略一些非常可怕的经济数据-例如对上周美国失业救济人数的历史性飙升没有反应-但可能会对停工持续时间的消息敏感。 ---扎克·潘德尔（Zach Pandl）和高盛团队

。“许多近期的利好消息现在都被反影了；从病毒的影响来看，一些市场参与者和特朗普可能会突然醒悟。”美元积极的再平衡流动可能会使美国股市走弱至4月份；而且新的刺激法案中注入美国经济的资金的效果可能需要更长的时间才能显现出来。”诺丹银行ABP分析师马丁·恩伦德（Martin Enlund），安德烈亚斯·斯蒂诺·拉尔森（Andreas Steno Larsen）和约阿希姆·伯恩哈德森（Joachim Bernhardsen）。

。“病毒爆发的长度和深度的不确定性仍然是投资者关注的主要问题。 “本周的重点仍将放在政府为对抗冠状病毒的实质和经济影响而进行的各种努力。投资者还将密切关注经济数据，以衡量对全球经济的破坏程度。” -迪拜阿联酋航空NBD PJSC金融市场研究总监Aditya Pugalia。

。由于全国各地Covid-19案件增加以及企业倒闭加剧了人们对经济的担忧，3月美国消费者信心指数暴跌，创下了2008年10月以来跌得最多的水平。周五数据显示，密西根大学当月最终情绪指数下跌11.9点，至三年低点89.1。彭博社（Bloomberg）的经济学家调查预期中值为90，三月初是的预期为95.9。 ---彭博

。失业数据的早期估计显示，至少有50万万纽约人因冠状病毒而失业，或将要失业。他补充说，很多人甚至无法上网或通过电话申请失业。上周，由于病毒大流行， 300万人申领失业。---CNBC

COVID-19 Virus Spread IS Getting Worse COVID-19病毒传播越来越严重

Latest world and US COVID-19 statistics， sources BNO and NewYork Time：

。Dr. Fauci, officially the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a member of the White House coronavirus task force told CNN's "State of the Union" Jake Tapper that "Looking at what we are seeing now, I would say between 100,000-200,000” deaths from the coronavirus. “We’re going to have millions of cases," he added. "But it's such a moving target and you could so easily be wrong...what we do know is we have a serious problem in New York, we have a serious problem in New Orleans and we're going to be developing serious problems in other areas. Although people like to model it, let's just look at the data that we have, and not worry about these worst case and best case scenarios."---ZeroHedge

。From the moment lockdowns and serious social distancing efforts began in the United States, the question on everyone’s mind was, “How long will these lockdowns last?” If we base our timing on the pattern of China, the peak in US would have begun yesterday, March 28th. We should begin to see the curve flattening out on charts within the next few days. This peak would last through about April 30th and we could see our worst days on April 10th and 11th, depending on whether we have some kind of unusual variables like both China and Italy have had. On May 23rd, we could see the lockdowns become more relaxed, and if they go 77 days like Wuhan, then the lockdowns would end on June 6th. ---Daisy Luther, The Organer Prepper Bloag

。The conservative American Enterprise Institute on Sunday released a “road map to reopening” the U.S., offering a four-phase plan for navigating the pandemic and emerge from tough restrictions. Scott Gottlieb, former head of the Food and Drug Administration and a resident AEI fellow, said on CBS that aggressive social distancing measures should stay in place until there is a “sustained reduction” in the number cases for 14 days. ---Bloomberg

。As coronavirus infections rise across the United States, public health experts widely agree it's time for a drastic step: Every state in the nation should now issue the kind of stay-at-home orders first adopted by the hardest-hit places. And while most states will probably not need to keep the rules in place for months upon months, many health specialists say the lockdowns will need to be kept up for several weeks. ---NPR

。Facing testing supply shortage, Washington governor calls for mobilizing manufacturing base ‘like we did in World War II’ ---CNBC

。The governors of Louisiana and Michigan, two emerging hot spots for the coronavirus pandemic in the U.S., warned their state health systems are straining amid a surge in patients and looming shortages of medical supplies. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said her state’s numbers are “climbing exponentially.” “We have hospitals that are already at capacity,” she said Sunday on NBC’s “Meet The Press.” “We’re running out of [personal protective equipment] as well.” ---CNBC

。"Hot spots like Detroit, like Chicago, like New Orleans... will have a worse week next week than what they had this week," US Surgeon General Dr. Jerome Adams warned in a "CBS This Morning" on Friday. This as Louisiana has surpassed 2,300 confirmed cases, and New Orleans seemingly 'out of nowhere' emerged as a US epicenter alongside New York, given it was only two weeks ago Louisiana had 300 just coronavirus cases total, but now New Orleans alone has reached 1,000 cases. And separately federal officials stationed in New Orleans say the city faces a drastic shortage of ventilators and protective equipment: "This is going to be the disaster that defines our generation," Collin Arnold, director of the city's Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness, told CNN Thursday.---ZeroHedge

。The coronavirus is rapidly surging throughout the United States, with some small rural counties leading the country in per capita rates of confirmed cases, according to a CNBC data analysis. Rural counties like Gunnison County, Colorado; Blaine County, Idaho; and Summit County, Utah have all been struggling with a recent surge in infections. The counties, located in states popular for skiing and hiking, are now grappling with tourists spreading infections and overwhelming local hospitals. ---CNBC

。While Americans across the country grapple with the harsh reality of sickness and death, job losses and isolation, beach goers in Florida over the weekend seemed to be having a great time. After outrage erupted in the wake of the images, St Johns County administrator Hunter Conrad announced that, as of Sunday morning, the beach is now closed. ---MarketWatch

。Britons may be subject to some form of lockdown measures for six months or longer, England’s Deputy Chief Medical Officer Jenny Harries said, warning the country faces a second wave of coronavirus if they are lifted too quickly. The government has said it will review in three weeks the lockdown steps it put in place last Monday. Harries said it is too soon to know if they have had the desired effect of reducing the peak of the spread of the virus in Britain. ---CNBC

。Russia will “temporarily” initiate a complete shutdown of its borders staring Monday in order to curb the pandemic, impacting all automobile, railway, pedestrian and river checkpoints along all Russian border points. The total border closure looks to be among the most comprehensive measures any country has yet taken to halt the spread of the virus, even as China has belatedly closed its borders to all foreign passport-holders this week.---ZeroHedge








最新全球及美国COVID-19统计，来源BNO新闻及纽约时报：

。Fauci博士是美国过敏与传染病研究所的主席，也是白宫冠状病毒特别工作组的成员。他对CNN的“国哪情况”杰克·塔珀说：“可能会有100,000-200,000人”死于冠状病毒。“我们将有数百万病例。” “但这是一个不断变化的目标，您很容易就会错了……我们知道的是，我们在纽约遇到了严重问题，在新奥尔良遇到了严重问题，我们将在其他地方也有严重问题。尽管人们喜欢用模式来做预估，但我们只看我们拥有的数据，而不用担心这些最坏的情景和最好的情情景。”-ZeroHedge

。从美国开始进行封锁和认真的社会疏远努力之时起，每个人都想到的问题是：“这些封锁将会持续多长时间？”如果我们根据中国的模式来确定时间，那么美国的高峰期在3月28日即昨天开始。在接下来的几天内，我们应该开始看到曲线在图表上趋于平坦。但高峰期将持续到4月30日左右，我们可能会在4月10日和11日看到最糟糕的日子，这取决于我们是否像中国和意大利一样拥有一些不同寻常的变化。在5月23日，我们可以看到封锁变得更加宽松，如果它们像武汉一样进行77天，那么封锁将在6月6日结束。 ---戴西·路德（Daisy Luther），《 The Organer Prepper Bloag》

。保守的美国企业研究所（American Enterprise Institute）周日发布了“重新开放美国的路线图”，其中提供了一个四阶段计划来应对这种流行病并摆脱严格的限制。美国食品和药物管理局前局长，常驻美国AEI研究员斯科特·戈特利布（Scott Gottlieb）在哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）上说，应采取积极的社会疏离措施，直到病例“持续减少”14天。 ---彭博

。随着在美国各地冠状病毒感染的增加，公共卫生专家普遍认为现在是采取大刀阔斧的时候了：该国每个州现在都应该发布好像受灾最严重的地区最初采用的在家常住令。尽管大多数州可能不需要几个月地维持规则，但许多健康专家表示，锁定措施需要保持数周。- - -美国国家公共电台

。面对测试供应短缺，华盛顿州长呼吁动员制造基地，“就像我们在第二次世界大战中所做的一样” ---CNBC

。路易斯安那州和密歇根州州长是美国两个冠状病毒大流行的新兴热点地区，他们警告说，由于患者数量激增和医疗用品短缺迫在眉睫，其州卫生系统正处于紧张状态。密歇根州州长格蕾琴·惠特默（Gretchen Whitmer）说，她所在州的人数“呈指数级增长”。她周日在美国全国广播公司（NBC）的《与媒体见面》（Meet The Press）上说：“我们的医院已经住满了。” “我们也用光了[个人防护装备]。” --- CNBC

。周五，美国外科医生杰罗姆·亚当斯（Jerome Adams）博士在《哥伦比亚广播公司今日早晨》中警告说：“下周末，底特律，芝加哥，新奥尔良这样的热点地区，将比本周情况更加糟糕。” 由于路易斯安那州已经确认了2,300例确诊病例，而新奥尔良似乎“突然之间”成为美国与纽约并驾齐驱成为震中，因为仅两周前路易斯安那州总共仅有300例冠状病毒病例，但是现在仅新奥尔良就达到了1,000例 案件。 分别驻扎在新奥尔良的联邦官员说，纽约市面临着通风设备和防护设备的严重短缺：“这将是我们这一代人的灾难，”该国国土安全和应急准备局局长Collin Arnold 星期四CNN ---ZeroHedge

。根据CNBC数据分析，冠状病毒在美国各地迅速蔓延，一些农村小县在确诊病例的人均发病率方面居全国领先。农村县，如科罗拉多州的甘尼森县；爱达荷州布莱恩县；最近，犹他州的萨米特县和萨米特县都在努力应对感染激增的问题。这些县位于受欢迎的滑雪和远足州，如今正为游客传播感染和当地医院不堪重负在斗争。 --- CNBC

。全国各地的美国人都在应对疾病和死亡，失业和孤立的严酷现实，而周末在佛罗里达州的海滩游人们似乎度过了一段快乐的时光。图片引起的愤怒爆发后，圣约翰斯县行政长官亨特·康拉德（Hunter Conrad）宣布，截至周日上午，海滩现已关闭。 ---MarketWatch

。英国副首席医疗官詹妮·哈里斯（Jenny Harries）说，英国人可能会受到某种形式的封锁措施，为期六个月或更长时间，警告他们如果放宽得太快，英国将面临第二波冠状病毒。政府已经表示，将在三周内审查其上周一采取的锁定步骤。哈里斯说，现在还不知道它们是否具有减少病毒在英国传播高峰的理想效果。 --- CNBC

。俄罗斯将启动周一“暂时”关闭所有边境，以遏制病毒大流行，影响俄罗斯所有边境检查站的所有汽车，铁路，行人和河口检查站。 全面关闭边境似乎是任何国家都尚未采取的最全面的措施，以阻止该病毒的传播，即使中国也迟本周才对所有外国护照持有人关闭边境。---ZeroHedge

Three Drives To Bottom, We Are On Third Drive Down 三波下跌见底，我们在第三波下跌

Experience tell us stock will likely bottom after the third drive down. The S&P 500 has experienced two drives down since February 19,2020. It has now finished the bounce from the second drive down and may have began the third drive down. Where will the third wave down end? In order to find out, I am presenting the following exercise.

The first drive down was 538 points down from the all time high of 3394 to end at 2856. I am using 538 as the basis for calculations. Fibonacci extension is the method I use to derive where the bottom may be at. Fibonacci extension multipliers are 1.618, 2.618 and 4.238. As we multiply 538 by this multipliers we get 875, 1409 and 2280 respectively. By subtracting these from all time high of 3394 we get 2519, 1985 and 1114 respectively. Since the March 23 low is lower than 2519, that leaves 1985 and 1114 levels as the potential bottoms for the S&P 500. For the S&P 500 dropping to 1985 and 1114 levels, it would mean 41.5% and 67.2% drop from all time high.

In my blog post on March 20, "Where is the bottom of this bear market ?" https://tradeideablog.blogspot.com/2020/03/where-is-bottom-of-this-bear-market.html I used historical supports and Fibonacci retracements to find the bottom. Taken together, the conclusion is  -54% falling to 1576 level.

Together with this time's  calculations, we have -41.5% (1985), -54% (1576) and -67.2% (1114) possible bottoming levels. Let us consider these levels as the next three support levels for the S & P 500. Where it will really bottom depends on when the COVID-19 pandemic will end and how bad the economy will be impacted.





经验告诉我们，股价在第三次下跌后触底的可能大。 自2020年2月19日以来，标准普尔500指数下跌了两次。 现在，它已经完成了从第二次下降后的反弹，并且可能已经开始了第三次下跌。 第三波下跌将在哪里结束？ 为了找出答案，我提出以下计算练习。

第一次下跌是从3394的历史最高点下跌538点，至2856年结束。我使用538作为计算的基础。 斐波那契延伸是我用来得出底部可能在哪里的方法。 斐波那契延伸乘数是1.618、2.618和4.238。 当我们将这等乘数乘以538时，分别得到875、1409和2280。 通过从历史最高点3394减去这些数，我们分别得到2519、1985和1114。 由于3月23日的低点已低于2519，因此我只将1985和1114的水平留为标普500的潜在底部。如果标普500跌至1985和1114的水平，则意味着从历史最高水平分别下降41.5％或67.2％。

在我3月20日发出的博文“这次熊市的底部在哪里” https://tradeideablog.blogspot.com/2020/03/where-is-bottom-of-this-bear-market.html
曾用历史支撑及斐波那契回撤来寻找底部。综合起来得出的结论是下跌54%至1576。

 连同这次计算出来的， 我们有-41.5% （1985），-54% （1576）及-67.2% （1114）的可能见底水平。我们不妨用这些水平作为S&P 500 的下三个支撑位来看。究竟真正在哪里见底，就要视乎COVID-19疫情什么时候结速及它对经济的影响程度了。

Stocks To Open Down 3%, 3 Day Bounce Ends 股市开盘将下跌3％，三日反弹结束

。Latest COVID-19 statistics：

Global cases: More than 542,700
Global deaths: At least 24,361
US cases: At least 85,996
US deaths: At least 1,300

。The United States now has more confirmed coronavirus cases than Italy and China, making it the country with the largest outbreak in the world. The total number of cases in the U.S. reached 82,404 Thursday evening, eclipsing China’s 81,782 cases and Italy’s 80,589, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. The number of confirmed cases likely underestimates the true number of infections across the country, officials have acknowledged. Testing in the U.S. has been hampered by delays and a restrictive diagnostic criteria that limits who can get tested.---CNBC

。In the United states, though New York has had by far the most cases, other Northeastern states have also seen their case totals increase rapidly. New Jersey now has the second-highest number of known cases in the country, surpassing Washington State. In Massachusetts, more than 100 people are being diagnosed each day. In Connecticut, dozens of new patients have been identified on each recent day.At the start of March, with large outbreaks already reported on both coasts, officials in Louisiana had not yet identified a single case of the coronavirus. But in the days since, the state has been pummeled. By Tuesday morning, 2,305 Louisianans had been infected and at least 83 had died.  “Our trajectory is basically the same as what they had in Italy,” Gov. John Bel Edwards said last week as he restricted public gatherings and urged people to stay inside.---New York Times

。U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced he has tested positive for COVID-19. “Over the last 24 hours I have developed mild symptoms and tested positive for coronavirus,” he said on Twitter. “I am now self-isolating, but I will continue to lead the government’s response via video-conference as we fight this virus.” ---CNBC

。U.S. stock index futures fell over 3% on Friday, a day after the S&P 500 and the Dow posted their best three-day run since the early 1930s, as the United States faced the prospect of becoming the next global epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic. U.S. stock index futures fell over 2% on Friday, a day after the S&P 500 and the Dow posted their best three-day run since the early 1930s, as the United States faced the prospect of becoming the next global epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic. Despite a jittery start to the week, all three major indexes have so far jumped between 13.3% and 17.6%, powered by unprecedented policy easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve and hopes of a $2.2 trillion government stimulus aid bill. But with both the Dow and the S&P 500 .SPX still down over 20% from their mid-February record highs, traders said the rebound was unlikely to last without evidence that the virus was being contained. ---Reuters

。The House is set to pass the $2 trillion stimulus package today and send it to the White House for President Donald Trump’s signature. The breakneck speed of the economic slowdown means that programs aimed at helping businesses and the newly unemployed need to get out the door in weeks, not months. The rules governing the largest portion of the aid, directed at corporations as well as state and local government, are still a work in progress. Doubts also remain over Trump’s call to have the money targeted at individuals delivered within two weeks.---Bloomberg

。The collapse in the price of crude is leading to rapid reduction in oil production at many American sites, with the industry braced for the biggest idling of wells in 35 years. In the world of physical delivery oil, a barrel is trading way below the benchmark spot prices, with substantial discounts offered for cargoes. There is no sign of relief in sight, with a barrel of West Texas Intermediate for May delivery trading at $22.50 this morning, while the meltdown in prices remains low on policy makers’ list of priorities.

。On Friday morning local time, China reported that industrial profits crash the most on record in January-February, both due to the Lunar new year, but mostly due to the virus outbreak and the government's restrictive measures to contain the virus. In year-over-year terms, profit growth was -38.3%, the biggest drop on record, and far worse from the -6.3%Y/Y decline in December. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the average level of profits in January-February also declined materially by 22% (non-annualized) from the December level. ---Zero Hedge




。最新COVID-19统计：

全球案例：多于542,700
全球死亡人数：至少24,361
美国案件：至少85,996
美国死亡人数：至少1,300

。现在，美国确诊的冠状病毒病例比意大利和中国更多，使其成为世界上爆发量最大的国家。 约翰·霍普金斯大学（Johns Hopkins University）汇编的数据显示，周四晚上，美国的总病例数达到82,404例，超过了中国的81,782例和意大利的80,589例。 官员们承认，确诊病例的数量可能低估了全国的真实感染人数。 在美国，测试受到延迟和限制诊断标准的限制，该标准限制了可以进行测试的人员。---CNBC

。在美国，尽管纽约的确诊病例总数最多，但其他东北州的案件总数也在迅速增加。 现在，新泽西州的已知病例数为第二高，超过了华盛顿州。 在马萨诸塞州，每天被诊断出100多人。 在康涅狄格州，最近每天都有数十名新患者被发现。在三月初，尽管已经报道了两个沿海地区的大规模疫情，路易斯安那州的官员尚未发现一例冠状病毒。 但是从那以后的日子里，该州受到了重创。 到星期二上午，已有2,305名路易斯安那人被感染，至少83人死亡 。约翰·贝尔·爱德华兹州州长上周表示：“我们的轨迹与意大利基本相同。”他限制公众聚会并敦促人们留在里面。--纽约时报

。英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊（Boris Johnson）宣布他的COVID-19测试呈阳性。 他在Twitter上说：“在过去的24小时内，我出现了轻度症状，并被测试为冠状病毒阳性。” “我现在正在自我隔离，但在我们与这种病毒作斗争时，我将继续通过视频会议领导政府的回应。”---CNBC

。在美国标准普尔500指数和道琼斯指数创下自1930年代初以来最好的三天涨幅的第二天，周五美国股市指数期货下跌超过2％，原因是美国面临着成为冠状病毒大流行的下一个全球震中的前景。 尽管本周开始紧张不安，但由于美联储（Federal Reserve）前所未有的政策放松以及政府有望出台2.2万亿美元的经济刺激法案，三大主要指数迄今反弹了13.3％和17.6％之间。 但是随着道琼斯指数和标准普尔500指数均较2月中旬的纪录高位下跌了20％以上，交易员表示，如果没有证据表明这种病毒被遏制，反弹不太可能持续。---路透社

。众议院今天将通过2万亿美元的刺激计划，并将其发送给白宫，以得到唐纳德·特朗普总统的签名。 经济放缓的惊人速度意味着旨在帮助企业和新失业者的计划需要在数周而不是数月内走出困境。 针对企业，州和地方政府的最大援助物资的法规仍在制定中。 对于特朗普号召将钱用于在两周内交付给个人的呼吁，人们仍然存有疑问。---彭博

。原油价格暴跌导致许多美国的石油产量迅速下降，而该行业将迎来35年来油井最大的空转。 在实物交付油的世界中，每桶交易价格都低于基准现货价格，为货物提供了大幅折扣。 西澳中质原油五月交割的原油价格今早交易于每桶22.50美元，同时价格下跌仍处于政策制定者优先考虑的范围之内，因此，市场似乎没有任何缓解的迹象。---彭博

。星期五当地时间早上，中国报告称，1月至2月工业利润暴跌创了最高记录，这既是由于农历新年，又主要是由于病毒的爆发以及政府遏制该病毒的限制性措施。 按年计算，利润增长为-38.3％，是有记录以来的最大跌幅，远低于12月的-6.3％同比下降。 经季节性调整后，1-2月的平均利润水平也比12月的水平大幅下降了22％（非年度化）。---Zero Hedge

Thursday Evening Reads 周四晚阅读

。Latest COVID-19 statistics：

Global cases: More than 526,000
Global deaths: At least 23,700
US cases: At least 82,400
US deaths: At least 1,100

。Very, very scary picture:

。Stocks surged for a third straight day Thursday as investors shrugged off the release of record-breaking initial jobless claims while the Senate passed a massive economic stimulus bill amid the coronavirus outbreak.The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 1,351.62 points, or 6.4%, to close at 22,552.17. The Dow capped off its biggest three-day surge since 1931. Over the past three days, the Dow is up more than 20%. The S&P 500 also posted a three-day winning streak, rising 6.2% to 2,630.07. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 5.6%  to 7,797.54 as Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google-parent Alphabet all jumped more than 4%.---CNBC

       
                                                                      Source Finviz.com

。New York's explosion of confirmed coronavirus case numbers over the past several days — with the state's total at 37,258 cases, with 5,327 currently hospitalized, and 1,290 patients in the ICU — 20,011 among these in New York City alone, is downright scary. However, NY Parks Bustle, Subway Packed, Social Distancing Defied.---ZeroHedge

。S&P has already done 565 company downgrades this quarter, up from 351 in 4Q and 281 in 1Q last year, per Bloomberg. That’s the most since records began in 2010 and far exceeds the prior quarterly peak of 390 in 1Q 2016. Its ratio of upgrades to downgrades fell to 0.27, the lowest on record. Moody’s is running a bit slow with "only" 342 cuts, which is still the most for a quarter since 2016. Fitch has done 192 downgrades this quarter, its most since 2012. ---ZeroHedge

。Kansas regional factory activity contracted sharply in March as firms were negatively impacted by COVID-19,” said Wilkerson. “Many firms indicated overall demand and sales have slowed dramatically, with capital investments being put on hold. Around 60 percent of manufacturers faced delayed payments from customers and 54 percent had concerns about cash availability.”The month-over-month composite index was -17 in March, the lowest composite reading since April 2009, and down considerably from 5 in February and -1 in January. ---Calculated Risk

。The coronavirus may be deadlier than the 1918 flu.

COVID-19
R naught (a mathematical term that indicates how contagious an infectious disease is): 2
Mortality rate: 4.5% (this number is in flux)
World population: 7.8 billion

1918 flu pandemic
R naught: about 1.8
Mortality rate: 2.5%
World population: 1.8 billion (est.)

---CNBC

。Ministry of Foreign Affairs and National Migration Administration: China has decided to suspend the entry of foreigners with currently valid visas and residence permits in China # from 00:00 on March 28, 2020 . Suspend foreigners holding APEC Business Travel Card Entry # . Port suspension, 24/72 / 144-hour transit visa exemption, Hainan entry visa exemption, Shanghai cruise visa exemption, 144-hour visa exemption for foreigners from Hong Kong and Macao in Guangdong, and Guangxi visa exemption for ASEAN tourist groups. ---weibo






。最新COVID-19 统计：

全球案例：超过526,000
全球死亡人数：至少23,700
美国案件：至少82,400
美国死亡人数：至少1,100

。非常，非常可怕的图像：

。周四股市连续第三天飙升，因为投资者忽略创纪录的初请失业金人数，而庆祝参议院通过的一项大规模的经济刺激法案。道琼斯工业平均指数上涨1,351.62点，或6.4％，收于22,552.17。 道指创建了自1931年以来最大的三日涨势。过去三天，道指累计上涨超过20％。标普500指数也连续三日上涨，上涨6.2％至2,630.07。 纳斯达克综合指数上涨5.6％，至7,797.54点，Facebook，亚马逊，苹果，Netflix和谷歌母公司Alphabet的股价均上涨了4％以上。---CNBC

                                                                原自Finviz.com

。在过去几天中，纽约州确诊的冠状病毒病例数激增-该州共有37,258例病例，目前有5327例住院，ICU中有1,290例患者—仅在纽约市就有20011确诊病例，这简直令人恐惧。 但是，在这疫情爆发中心，纽约公园依然熙熙嚷嚷, 地铁挤满人，社交距离命令被蔑视。---Zero Hedge

。据彭博社报道，标普本季度已经降级了565家企业，高于去年第四季度的351家和去年第一季度的281家。 这是自2010年创下记录以来的最高记录，并且大大超过了2016年第一季度的上一个季度峰值390。其升级与降级比率降至0.27，为有记录以来的最低水平。 穆迪（Moody's）的降级速度较慢，仅342降级，这仍然是自2016年以来的季度最高降幅。惠誉（Fitch）本季度降级192次，为2012年以来最高。---ZeroHedge

。由于企业受到COVID-19的负面影响，3月份堪萨斯州区域工厂活动急剧收缩。” “许多公司表示，总体需求和销售大幅放缓，资本投资被搁置。 大约60％的制造商面临来自客户的延迟付款，而54％的企业担心现金供应。“ 3月份的月度综合指数为-17，是自2009年4月以来的最低水平，较2月的5和5显着下降。 -1月。---Calculated Risk

。冠状病毒可能比1918年的流感更致命。

新冠肺炎
R naugt（一个数学术语，表示传染病的传染性）：2
死亡率：4.5％（此数字在变化中）
世界人口：78亿

1918年流感大流行
R naugt：约1.8
死亡率：2.5％
世界人口：18亿（估计）

---CNBC

。外交部和国家移民局：中国已决定从2020年3月28日00:00起，暂停持有有效签证和居留证的外国人入境。暂停持有APEC商务旅行卡入境号码的外国人。 港口暂停，24/72/144小时过境签证豁免，海南入境签证豁免，上海邮轮签证豁免，广东省香港和澳门的外国人144小时签证豁免以及东盟旅游团体的广西签证豁免。---微博

Market Rebound Almost Done, Retest Of Low Starts Shortly市场反弹即将完成，重新测试低位快将开始开始

The S&P 500 went down to 2191 on Monday, March 23rd  and then bounced strongly for 3 days in a row. This is a bear market rally and is ending soon and the 2191 low will likely be retested. The followings are the reasons:

1. Technically speaking, the low after a sharp drop always get retested after a bounce. V shape bottom is very rare.

2. The projected S&P 500 bounce resistance levels are 2551(38%) and 2662(50%). Today, it has reached 2630 at the close and resistance is only 38 points away. The Dow and Nasdaq Composite are already at their 20 day moving average resistances. The bounce is likely over or close to over.

3. The COVID-19 confirmed cases are exploding in the United States and no ending is in sight. Much worse situation is to come before getting better. As of 3:45 PM West Coast Time US has surpassed China as the confirm COVID-19 cases jumped to 81791 with 1205 deaths. It has become number 1 country with the most confirmed cases. In another couple days, it will likely break above the 100000 confirmed case level!

4. The COVID-19 led impact to the economy is commonly agree that it is worse than the 2000 Tech bubble and the 2008 subprime crisis, it is not going to end quickly. The 2000 and 2008 bear markets took the S&P 500 down 51% and 58% respectively.  The  two bear market lasted over 2 years. After the recent 3 day bounce, the S&P 500 is now only down 22.5%,  it is definitely not enough.

5. In the near future, the market is going to face more bad news on the economy, bad earning reports, corporate lowering projections and analysts downgrading stocks.  These are going keep depressing stocks.

标普500指数在3月23日星期一跌至2191低位，然后连续3天强劲反弹。这只是一次熊市中的反弹而且即将结束，很快会重新测试2191的低点。原因如下：

1。从技术上讲，急剧下跌后的低点总是在反弹后会重新被测试。 V形底很罕见。

2。标普500反弹的阻力水平预计为2551 （38%）和2662（50%）。今天，它收市时已达到了2630，还有38点就到阻力。另外，道指和纳斯达克综合指数也已到达他们的20天均线阻力。市场反弹可能已经结束或接近结束。

3. COVID-19确诊病例在美国呈爆炸性增长，并且还没看到结束的时候。在好转之前情况会先变得更糟。截至美国西海岸时间下午3:45，美国已确认的COVID-19病例跃升至81791，死亡1205人，已超过中国成为确诊病例最多的国家。再过两天，它很可能就会突破10万例确诊病例！

4。COVID-19带来的经济冲击普遍认为比2000年的科技泡沫和2008年的次贷危机还要糟糕，而且不会很快结束。 2000年和2008年的熊市使标普500指数分别下跌51％和58％。这两次熊市都持续了2年多。在最近三天的反弹之后，标普500指数从历史高位跌至最低时下跌34%，反弹后现在仅下跌了22.5％，这绝对是跌未够的。

5。在不久的将来，更多的经济坏消息，糟糕的收益报告，公司下调预测以及分析师调低股票评级将继续打压股市。

US Stocks Stable As 2T Stimulus Overcomes 3M Jobless Claims 2T刺激方案克服3M申领失业救济人数，美国股市稳定

。COVID-19 statistics：

Global cases: More than 480,446
Global deaths: At least 21,571
US cases: At least 69,197
US deaths: At least 1,046

。Futures indicate US stock will open slightly up：

                                                               Source finviz.com

。Share markets across the world fell on Thursday as nerves over jobs data likely to lay bare the economic carnage from the coronavirus pandemic outweighed a $2 trillion U.S. stimulus package. Europe’s broad Euro STOXX 600 fell 1.8%, with bourses in Frankfurt, London and Paris all down around 2.5% as a two-day rally faltered.E arlier, Asia saw a mixed session. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 1.1% but regional performances varied. The Nikkei snapped three days of gains in Tokyo with a 4.5% drop, while Australia’s benchmark rose for a third day - its longest winning streak in six weeks. The MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in 49 countries, was flat. ---Reuters

。Initial Jobless Claims: +3M to 3.28M vs. +1M consensus, 282K prior.Continuous Claims: +101K to 1.803M vs. +1.702M prior (revised). Marks the highest level of seasonally adjusted initial claims in the history of the series. The previous high was 695K in October 1982. ---Seekingalpha

。The United States “may well be in recession” but progress in controlling the spread of the coronavirus will dictate when the economy can fully reopen, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said Thursday in an interview on NBC’s Today Show.---Reuters

。Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank will maintain its muscular efforts to support the flow of credit in the U.S. economy as Americans hunker down from the coronavirus pandemic. ---Bloomberg

。The Senate passes a $2 trillion economic relief package to respond to the coronavirus pandemic.
It now heads to the House, which hopes to approve it by Friday. The legislation, approved as waves of layoffs hit workers and hospitals look for resources, may not be the last action Congress takes to help a reeling economy and health-care system. ---CNBC

。In an unprecedented move, the U.S. Senate passed a $58 billion aid package late on Wednesday, half in the form of grants to cover some 750,000 airline staff wages. Those receiving funds cannot lay off employees before Sept. 30 or change collective bargaining pacts. The bill has restrictions on stock buybacks, dividends and executive pay, and allows the government to take equity, warrants or other compensation as part of the rescue package. The U.S. House of Representatives is expected to back the move on Friday. President Donald Trump has promised to sign it. ---Reuters





。COVID-19 统计：

全球案例：超过480,446
全球死亡人数：至少21,571
美国案件：至少69,197
美国死亡人数：至少1,046

。期货交易显示美股开市会小幅上涨。

                                                                源自finviz.com

。周四全球股市下跌，原因是人们对就业数据的担忧使冠状病毒大流行的经济损失超过了2万亿美元的美国一揽子刺激计划。 欧洲股市普遍下跌，STOXX 600下跌了1.8％，法兰克福，伦敦和巴黎的股市均下跌了约2.5％，为期两天的反弹开始枯萎。 MSCI除日本以外最广泛的亚太股票指数上涨了1.1％，但地区表现却有所不同。 日经指数在东京连续三日的上涨终止，跌幅为4.5％，而澳大利亚基准指数连续第三日上涨-这是六周以来最长的连胜纪录。标准普尔500指数的E-迷你期货下跌了1.3％，显示华尔街开市会疲软，而追踪49个国家/地区的MSCI全球股票指数则持平。---路透社

。首次申请失业救济人数：+ 3M至3.28M，而共识为+ 1M，之前为282K。连续索赔：+ 101K到1.803M，之前为+ 1.702M（修订）。这是该系列历史上经过季节性调整的初始索赔的最高水平。 先前的高点是1982年10月的695K。---SeekingAlpha

。美联储主席鲍威尔周四在NBC的今日节目中接受采访时说，美国“可能会陷入衰退”，但控制冠状病毒传播的进展将决定经济何时才能完全重新开放。---路透社

。美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）表示，随着美国人因冠状病毒大流行而留在家中，中央银行将继续大力支持美国经济的信贷流动。---彭博

。参议院通过了一项2万亿美元的经济救济计划，以应对冠状病毒大流行。现在它进入众议院，希望在星期五之前投票通过。由于裁员浪潮袭来，工人和医院都在寻找资源，这项立法可能不是国会帮助经济复苏和医疗保健体系采取的最后行动。---CNBC

。美国参议院在周三晚些时候通过了一项580亿美元的一揽子援助计划，这是前所未有的举动，其中一半以赠款的形式覆盖了约75万名航空公司员工的工资。 那些收到资金的公司不能在9月30日之前解雇雇员，也不能更改集体谈判协议。该法案对股票回购，股利和高管薪酬有限制，并允许政府将股权，认股权证或其他补偿作为救援计划的一部分。 预计美国众议院将在周五支持这一举动。 唐纳德·特朗普总统已答应签署。---路透社

Wednesday Night Read 星期三晚上阅读

。Wednesday marked the first time since February the Dow and S&P 500 closed higher in back-to-back sessions. Boeing shares rallied 24% to lead the Dow higher. A 9.2% gain in Nike also boosted the Dow. The Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.5%, however, to 7,384.30 as Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google-parent Alphabet all closed lower. ---CNBC

                                                                  Source Finviz.com


。Latest COVID-19 statistics:

Global cases: More than 466,000
Global deaths: At least 21,000
US cases: At least 65,100
US deaths: At least 900

。Consensus now expecting up to 750K newly laid-off workers seeking unemployment benefits, according to Southbay, historically one of the most accurate labor market forecasters, tomorrow's print will be a whopper at no less than 2.5 million! Prior Week Initial Claims (Actual): 281K, Current Week Claims Forecast (Consensus): 750K, Current Week Claims Forecast (SouthBay): 2,351K ---ZeroHedge

。A new report from Nikkei Asian Review states that Apple could delay the launch of its 5G iPhone over supply chain disruptions in China and new fears of demand issues as the global economy crashes. Sources told Nikkei that Apple has "held internal discussions on the possibility of delaying the launch by months, three people familiar with the matter said, while supply chain sources say practical hurdles could push back the release, originally scheduled for September."---ZeroHedge

。“While Buffett is well known for weathering the worst market downturns and coming out stronger, the last several weeks have been just as painful on his portfolio as it has on the broader market,” Bespoke explained in a post noting that the average stock in his top holdings is off 37%.---MarketWatch

。SeekingAlpha published an article by Bram De Hass that summarized the current situation as follows:

Where are we now?
The current state of affairs can be factually summed up as follows:
We’re in a bear market.
We’re 99.5% likely already in a recession.
There's a lot of uncertainty around COVID-19 and number dead will be increasing over the next few weeks, if not months.

Where are central banks?
The Fed can lower interest rates by 25bp until zero (possible to go lower but Jerome Powell is not a fan)
ECB interest rates are -50bp (lowest ever already/Denmark and Switzerland are even lower)
Japan interest rates are -10bp
Chinese interest rates are 225bp
Fed is doing (unlimited) QE 4.5
ECB is doing QE
Japan is doing QE
China isn’t doing QE (it is stimulating through fiscal policy)

Where's the government?
U.S. is deploying fiscal stimulus (likely to do helicopter money)
EU countries are deploying fiscal stimulus (some countries are doing helicopter money)
Japan is doing fiscal stimulus (considering helicopter money)
Hong Kong is doing fiscal stimulus (helicopter money)

What's perception like?
The V-shaped recovery is generally accepted as being off the table.
Perhaps the current most widely expected scenario is a U-shaped recovery.
A decent percentage of market participants think we can deal with the virus and move on.
Most participants put a high probability on further short-term declines in the equity markets.
The currently announced timeframes for social distancing and/or self-isolation are viewed as “hard” target dates but it could turn out significantly more time is required.
The crisis will be deflationary.






。周三是道指和标普500指数自2月以来的首次收盘价。 波音股价上涨24％，领跌道指。 耐克（Nike）上涨9.2％，也推动了道指的上涨。 纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.5％，至7,384.30点，Facebook，亚马逊，苹果，Netflix和谷歌母公司Alphabet的股票均下跌。 --- CNBC

                                                                         源自Finviz.com


。最新的COVID-19统计：

全球案例：超过466,000
全球死亡人数：至少21,000
美国案件：至少65,100
美国死亡人数：至少900

。一直以来，市场共识预计将有75万新下岗的工人寻求失业救济，据历史上最准确的劳动力市场预测者之一的SouthBa说，明天的报告将会是不少于250万！ 前一周初次索赔（实际）：281K，本周索赔预测（共识）：750K,  本周索赔预测（SouthBay）：2,351K --- ZeroHedge

。《日经亚洲评论》（Nikkei Asian Review）的一份新报告指出，由于全球供应链中断，以及随着全球经济崩溃，对需求问题的新担忧，苹果可能会推迟推出5G iPhone。 消息人士告诉日经新闻，三位知情人士说，苹果“已经就推迟将发布推迟数月的时间进行了内部讨论，而供应链消息人士称，实际障碍可能会推迟原定于9月发布的发布。” --- ZeroHedge

。“虽然巴菲特以度过最严重的市场低迷而出名，但过去几周的投资组合和大盘一样痛苦，” Bespoke在一篇帖子中解释说，他所持股票平均下跌37％。---MarketWatch

。SeekingAlpha发表了Bram De Hass的文章，总结了当前经济与股市情况，如下：

我们现在的情况？
实际上，当前的状况可以总结如下：
我们在熊市中。
我们可能已经99.5％处于衰退中。
关于COVID-19的不确定性很大，在接下来的几周（甚至数月）内，死亡人数将会增加。

中央银行的行动？
美联储可以再将利率降低25个基点，直到降为零（可能会降低，但杰罗姆·鲍威尔不是粉丝）
欧洲央行利率为-50bp（丹麦/瑞士甚至更低）
日本利率为-10bp
中国的利率是225bp
美联储正在（无限量）量化宽松4.5
欧洲央行正在做量化宽松
日本正在进行量化宽松
中国没有进行量化宽松（但通过财政政策来刺激）

政府在做些什么？
美国正在部署财政刺激措施（可能会发钱）
欧盟国家正在部署财政刺激措施（一些国家在进行发钱）
日本正在采取财政刺激措施（考虑发钱）
香港正在实行财政刺激（已发钱）

展望如何？

V型恢复已被视为机会不大。
当前最广泛预期的情况可能是U型复苏。
相当多一部分市场参与者认为我们可以应对这种病毒并继续前进。
大多数参与者极认为股市有可能进一步下跌。
当前宣布的社会疏远和/或自我孤立的时间框架被视为“硬性”目标日期，但事实证明，这需要大量时间。
显示的危机会导致通缩。